This issue of CHP/PCOR's Quarterly Update covers news from the Winter 2008 quarter and includes articles about:

• the Russian Mortality Crisis and the effect of Gorbachev’s anti-alcohol campaign on life expectancy;
• bioterrorism supply chains – how should policymakers be planning for a bioterrorism attack?
• a Research in Brief selection on the phenomenon and effect of Regression toward the Mean in statistical analysis on study findings;
• the use of pedometers and use of human growth hormone in athletes, both widely-covered topics by the media, investigated by CHP/PCOR researchers.

The newsletter also contains various other news items that may be of interest to our readers.

Note to the reader:

The newsletter is fully-navigational. Any text that is surrounded by a dashed box is clickable and will allow the reader to navigate the newsletter more efficiently. The end of each article contains a special symbol (§) that, when clicked, will take the reader back to the table of contents. Please feel free to contact Amber Hsiao with any questions.

Background: A bioterrorism attack with an agent such as anthrax will require rapid deployment of medical and pharmaceutical supplies to exposed individuals. How should such a logistical system be organized? How much capacity should be built into each element of the bioterrorism response supply chain?

Methods: The authors developed a compartmental model to evaluate the costs and benefits of various strategies for preattack stockpiling and postattack distribution and dispensing of medical and pharmaceutical supplies, as well as the benefits of rapid attack detection.

Results: The authors show how the model can be used to address a broad range of logistical questions as well as related, nonlogistical questions (e.g., the cost-effectiveness of strategies to improve patient adherence to antibiotic regimens). They generate several key insights about appropriate strategies for local communities. First, stockpiling large local inventories of medical and pharmaceutical supplies is unlikely to be the most effective means of reducing mortality from an attack, given the availability of national and regional supplies. Instead, communities should create sufficient capacity for dispensing prophylactic antibiotics in the event of a large-scale bioterror attack. Second, improved surveillance systems can significantly reduce deaths from such an attack but only if the local community has sufficient antibiotic-dispensing capacity. Third, mortality from such an attack is significantly affected by the number of unexposed individuals seeking prophylaxis and treatment. Fourth, full adherence to treatment regimens is critical for reducing expected mortality.

Conclusions: Effective preparation for response to potential bioterror attacks can avert deaths in the event of an attack. Models such as this one can help communities more effectively prepare for response to potential bioterror attacks. Key words: bioterror; supply chain; logistics; anthrax; emergency response.

OBJECTIVE: To identify communication needs and evaluate the effectiveness of alternative communication strategies for bioterrorism responses. METHODS: We provide a framework for evaluating communication needs during a bioterrorism response. Then, using a simulation model of a hypothetical response to anthrax bioterrorism in a large metropolitan area, we evaluate the costs and benefits of alternative strategies for communication during a response. RESULTS: Expected mortality increases significantly with increases in the time for attack detection and announcement; decreases in the rate at which exposed individuals seek and receive prophylaxis; increases in the number of unexposed people seeking prophylaxis; and increases in workload imbalances at dispensing centers. Thus, the timeliness, accuracy, and precision of communications about the mechanisms of exposure and instructions for obtaining prophylaxis and treatment are critical. Investment in strategies that improve adherence to prophylaxis is likely to be highly cost effective, even if the improvement in adherence is modest, and even if such strategies reduce the prophylaxis dispensing rate. CONCLUSIONS: Communication during the response to a bioterror attack must involve the right information delivered at the appropriate time in an effective manner from trusted sources. Because the response system for bioterror communication is only fully operationalized once an attack has occurred, tabletop planning and simulation exercises, and other up-front investments in the design of an effective communication strategy, are critical for effective response planning.

This issue of CHP/PCOR's Quarterly Update covers news from the Fall 2007 quarter and includes articles about:

• the 2007 Eisenberg Legacy Lecture event, featuring CHP/PCOR core faculty member Victor R. Fuchs;
• annual meeting and conference coverage, including the Society for Medical Decision Meeting's Annual Meeting, and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies conference;
• two Research in Brief selections -- one highlights differences in gender use care in the VA system, and the second examines health risk assessment tools;
• how the Geriatrics Research team at the VA is using informatics to improve quality of health care;
• international health features from the field and from a research perspective;
• a Q & A with senior scholar Dena M. Bravata, who led a popular pedometer that received lots of media attention in past months.

The newsletter also contains various other news items that may be of interest to our readers.

Note to the reader:

The newsletter is fully-navigational. Any text that is surrounded by a dashed box is clickable and will allow the reader to navigate the newsletter more efficiently. The end of each article contains a special symbol (§) that, when clicked, will take the reader back to the table of contents. Please feel free to contact Amber Hsiao with any questions.

Despite an association between violence perpetration and substance use, the characteristics associated with violence among patients in treatment for substance use disorders (SUDs) are not well documented. Data were gathered from a national sample of men (n = 4,459) and women (n = 1,774) entering SUD treatment on history of violence perpetration, exposure to childhood physical abuse (CPA) and childhood sexual abuse (CSA), and reasons for entering treatment. Rates of violence perpetration were high (72% of men, 50% of women), and violence was associated with being referred by family members, prior SUD treatment, CPA, and CSA. In multivariate analyses, CPA was a significant correlate of violence perpetration across gender; however, CSA was only significant among women. Findings highlight the need for increased screening and treatment of violence perpetration among patients with SUD and suggest that CSA may be an important correlate of violence perpetration among women.

Objectives: We examined the utility of the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) universal screening program for military sexual violence.

Methods: We analyzed VHA administrative data for 185 880 women and 4139888 men who were veteran outpatients and were treated in VHA health care settings nationwide during 2003.

Results: Screening was completed for 70% of patients. Positive screens were associated with greater odds of virtually all categories of mental health comorbidities, including posttraumatic stress disorder (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=8.83; 99% confidence interval [CI] = 8.34, 9.35 for women; AOR = 3.00; 99% CI = 2.89, 3.12 for men). Associations with medical comorbidities (e.g., chronic pulmonary disease, liver disease, and for women, weight conditions) were also observed. Significant gender differences emerged.

Conclusions: The VHA policies regarding military sexual trauma represent a uniquely comprehensive health care response to sexual trauma. Results attest to the feasibility of universal screening, which yields clinically significant information with particular relevance to mental health and behavioral health treatment. Women’s health literature regarding sexual trauma will be particularly important to inform health care services for both male and female veterans.

Objective: The objectives of this study were to characterize (1) families' cumulative burden of health-related social problems regarding access to health care, housing, food security, income security, and intimate partner violence; (2) families' experiences regarding screening and referral for social problems; and (3) parental acceptability of screening and referral.

Methods: We surveyed 205 parents of children who were 0 to 6 years of age and attended 2 urban pediatric clinics for a well-child visit using a self-administered, computer-based questionnaire. The questionnaire included previously validated questions about health-related social problems and new questions about screening and referral in the past 12 months.

Results: A total of 205 (79%) of 260 eligible families participated. Eighty-two percent of families reported > or = 1 health-related social problem; 54% experienced problems in > or = 2 social domains. Families experienced similar types and frequencies of problems despite demographic differences between clinics. One third of families reported no screening in any domain in the previous 12 months. Of 205 families, 143 (70%) identified at least 1 need for a referral; 101 (49%) expressed > or = 1 unmet referral need. Of families who reported receiving referrals, 115 referrals were received by 79 families; of the referrals made, 63% (73 of 115) led to contact with the referral agency, and 82% (60 of 73) of the referral agencies were considered helpful. A computer-based system in a pediatrician's office for future screening and referral for health-related social problems was deemed acceptable by 92% of parents.

Conclusions: Urban children and families reported a significant burden of health-related social problems yet infrequent pediatric screening or referral for these problems. Of families who reported receiving referrals, a majority contacted the recommended agencies and found them helpful. This study also demonstrates the feasibility of using a computer-based questionnaire to identify health-related social problems in a routine outpatient clinic setting.

Breast cancer is one of the most common causes of death for women in their 40s in the United States. Individualized risk assessment plays an important role when making decisions about screening mammography, especially for women 49 years of age or younger. The purpose of this guideline is to present the available evidence for screening mammography in women 40 to 49 years of age and to increase clinicians' understanding of the benefits and risks of screening mammography.

Summary

Screening mammography probably reduces breast cancer mortality in women 40 to 49 years of age modestly. However, the reduction in this age group is smaller than that in women 50 years of age or older, is subject to greater uncertainty about the exact reduction in risk, and comes with the risk for potential harms (such as false-positive and false-negative results, exposure to radiation, discomfort, and anxiety).

Because of the variation in benefits and harms associated with screening mammography, we recommend tailoring the decision to screen women on the basis of women's concerns about mammography and breast cancer, as well as their risk for breast cancer. Assessment of an individual woman's risk for breast cancer is important because the balance of harms and benefits will shift to net benefit as a woman's baseline risk for breast cancer increases, all other factors being equal. For many women, the potential reduction in risk for death due to breast cancer associated with screening mammography will outweigh other considerations.

As part of a broader project to improve the usability of computerized physician order entry (CPOE) systems, we set out to study the cognitive tasks physicians undertake to write "admission orders" when admitting a patient to the hospital. In particular, we evaluate the hypothesis that physicians' mental model of diagnostic and therapeutic planning is problem based, whereas both paper-based ordering and CPOE are typically organized around functional categories of orders such as those reflected in the mnemonic ADCVAANDIML. A task analysis was performed which included think-aloud observations of physicians writing orders in clinical care settings and for fictional case-scenarios, as well as a semi-structured questionnaire. Our work finds core tasks of admitting a patient to hospital and conflicts between physicians' mental model and traditional ordering systems. Based on our study, we suggest improvements to traditional CPOE systems.

This issue of CHP/PCOR's quarterly newsletter, which covers news from the summer 2006 quarter, includes articles about:

• research by CHP/PCOR investigators that influenced the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to recommend widespread voluntary HIV screening for all Americans ages 13 to 64 -- a significant change from the CDC's previous HIV screening guidelines;
• a CHP/PCOR study on patient safety culture in U.S. hospitals -- the largest effort to date to measure hospitals' safety culture and seek to improve it through an intervention that gets hospital executives out of their offices and on to the hospital floors;
• an early-stage project in which CHP/PCOR is collaborating with the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law to study the relationship between health interventions, governance and development;
• an evidence report examining the challenges of diagnosing and treating anthrax in children, prepared by the Stanford-UCSF Evidence-based Practice Center; and
• a study by CHP/PCOR fellow Kate Bundorf which found that depending on the definition of "affordability" that is used, health insurance is "affordable" to between one-quarter and three-quarters of the uninsured -- and many of those who can't afford insurance purchase it anyway.