Health and Medicine

FSI’s researchers assess health and medicine through the lenses of economics, nutrition and politics. They’re studying and influencing public health policies of local and national governments and the roles that corporations and nongovernmental organizations play in providing health care around the world. Scholars look at how governance affects citizens’ health, how children’s health care access affects the aging process and how to improve children’s health in Guatemala and rural China. They want to know what it will take for people to cook more safely and breathe more easily in developing countries.

FSI professors investigate how lifestyles affect health. What good does gardening do for older Americans? What are the benefits of eating organic food or growing genetically modified rice in China? They study cost-effectiveness by examining programs like those aimed at preventing the spread of tuberculosis in Russian prisons. Policies that impact obesity and undernutrition are examined; as are the public health implications of limiting salt in processed foods and the role of smoking among men who work in Chinese factories. FSI health research looks at sweeping domestic policies like the Affordable Care Act and the role of foreign aid in affecting the price of HIV drugs in Africa.

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Beth Duff-Brown
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Infant deaths in Massachusetts for much of the 1800s accounted for more than 20 percent of all deaths, many due to diarrhea, cholera and other gastrointestinal disorders.

But from 1870 to 1930, the infant mortality rate plummeted from around 1 in 5 white infants to 1 in 16 for both Massachusetts and the entire United States.

Studies have shown that the dramatic decline was due to the impact of a clean-water system in Boston and other major U.S. cities at that turn of the 20th century.

Now, new research by Stanford Health Policy’s Marcella Alsan indicates that effective sewage systems installed in Boston and surrounding municipalities complemented the water treatment plants and had a significant role in protecting the lives of children.

“We were motivated to investigate this because there was a watershed moment when infant mortality began to decline in the U.S. and Massachusetts that we wanted to understand,” said Alsan, an assistant professor in the Department of Medicine, and the country’s only physician who is a tropical disease expert and economist.

“In retrospect, the daunting challenges these engineers and medical professionals faced in designing, financing and executing such a massive project is incredible,” Alsan said in an interview. “It was really inspiring to read the history of how it all came together.”

She and co-author, Claudia Goldin of Harvard University’s Department of Economics, analyzed about 200,000 of infant death certificates in Boston and 54 other Massachusetts municipalities spanning the years 1880 to 1915.

The impetus behind the creation of the Metropolitan Sewerage District was complaints regarding the stench of sewage among Boston’s upper-class citizens.

“The first of a series of hearings was given by the sewerage commission at the City Hall on Friday night,” read a story in an 1875 edition of the Boston Medical and Surgical Journal. “From the statements made it would appear in various parts of the district including most of the finest streets, the stench is terrible, often causing much sickness.”

A joint engineering and medical commission was appointed in 1875 to devise a remedy and a massive drainage project got underway.

Alsan and Goldin found that an overwhelming number of deaths in the greater metropolitan area were due to gastrointestinal disorders, but that this improved significantly when sanitation canals became part of the overall water systems.

“We find robust evidence that the pure water and sewerage treatments pioneered by far-sighted public servants and engineers in the Commonwealth saved many babies,” they write in a working paper. “It must also have enhanced the quality of life for the citizens of the Greater Boston area even if it did not reduce the non-child death rate by much.”

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They acknowledge that the interpretation of their results is intuitive. But it’s an important one to promote because many developing countries today have yet to heed the lesson of combining safe drinking water and improved sanitation systems.

“Without proper disposal of fecal material, the benefits of clean water technologies for the health of children are likely limited,” they write. “Such a result has relevance for today’s low-and middle- income countries.”

The Millennium Development Goal Target 7.C — to halve by 2015 the proportion of the population without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation —was only met for water, but not sanitation. Between 1990 and 2015, 2.6 billion people gained access to improved drinking water sources.

Yet despite that progress, one-third of the global population is still using unimproved sanitation facilities, including nearly 1 billion people who are still forced to defecate in the open. This often leads to cholera, typhoid, hepatitis, polio, and worm infestation.

Diarrhea is the third-largest killer of children under 5 in sub-Saharan Africa, and 44 million pregnant women are infected with worms each year due to open defecation, according to the United Nations. Every minute, 1.1 million liters of human excrement enters the Ganges River in India.

The problem of waste disposal likely will be compounded by rapid urbanization occurring in the developing world, said Alsan, and lack of sanitation and the practice of open defecation costs the world’s poorest countries $260 billion a year.

“We think our findings underscore how complementary these infrastructure investments are, and hope that holds lessons for the developing world,” said Alsan. “In all practicality, it’s very hard to ensure the municipal water supply is not contaminated if the sewage infrastructure is neglected.”

 

Working Paper: Watersheds in Infant Mortality

 

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Abstract: Objectives To describe hospital utilization and costs associated with preterm or low birth weight births (preterm/LBW) by payer prior to implementation of the Affordable Care Act and to identify areas for improvement in the quality of care received among preterm/LBW infants. Methods Hospital utilization—defined as mean length of stay (LOS, days), secondary diagnoses for birth hospitalizations, primary diagnoses for rehospitalizations, and transfer status—and costs were described among preterm/LBW infants using the 2009 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Results Approximately 9.1 % of included hospitalizations (n = 4,167,900) were births among preterm/LBW infants; however, these birth hospitalizations accounted for 43.4 % of total costs. Rehospitalizations of all infants occurred at a rate of 5.9 % overall, but accounted for 22.6 % of total costs. This pattern was observed across all payer types. The prevalence of rehospitalizations was nearly twice as high among preterm/LBW infants covered by Medicaid (7.6 %) compared to commercially-insured infants (4.3 %). Neonatal transfers were more common among preterm/LBW infants whose deliveries and hospitalizations were covered by Medicaid (7.3 %) versus commercial insurance (6.5 %). Uninsured/self-pay preterm and LBW infants died in-hospital during the first year of life at a rate of 91 per 1000 discharges—nearly three times higher than preterm and LBW infants covered by either Medicaid (37 per 1000) or commercial insurance (32 per 1000). Conclusions When comparing preterm/LBW infants whose births were covered by Medicaid and commercial insurance, there were few differences in length of hospital stays and costs. However, opportunities for improvement within Medicaid and CHIP exist with regard to reducing rehospitalizations and neonatal transfers.

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Maternal and Child Health Journal
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Mark W. Smith
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Background

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) has increased rates of public and private health insurance in the United States. Increasing coverage could raise hospital revenue and reduce the need to shift costs to insured patients. The consequences of ACA on hospital revenues could be examined if payments were known for most hospitals in the United States. Actual payment data are considered confidential, however, and only charges are widely available. Payment-to-charge ratios (PCRs), which convert hospital charges to an estimated payment, have been estimated for hospitals in 10 states. Here we evaluated whether PCRs can be predicted for hospitals in states that do not provide detailed financial data.

Methods

We predicted PCRs for 5 payer categories for over 1,000 community hospitals in 10 states as a function of state, market, hospital, and patient characteristics. Data sources included the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) State Inpatient Databases, HCUP Hospital Market Structure file, Medicare Provider of Service file, and state information from several sources. We performed out-of-sample prediction to determine the magnitude of prediction errors by payer category.

Results

Many individual, hospital, and state factors were significant predictors of PCRs. Root mean squared error of prediction ranged from 32 to over 100 % of the mean and varied considerably by which states were included or predicted. The cost-to-charge ratio (CCR) was highly correlated with PCRs for Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance but not for self-pay or other insurance categories.

Conclusions

Inpatient payments can be estimated with modest accuracy for community hospital stays funded by Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance. They improve upon CCRs by allowing separate estimation by payer type. PCRs are currently the only approach to estimating fee-for-service payments for privately insured stays, which represent a sizable proportion of stays for individuals under age 65. Additional research is needed to improve the predictive accuracy of the models for all payers.

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BMC Health Services Research
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Mark W. Smith
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INTRODUCTION:

We examined the cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation integrated with treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

METHODS:

Smoking veterans receiving care for PTSD (N = 943) were randomized to care integrated with smoking cessation versus referral to a smoking cessation clinic. Smoking cessation services, health care cost and utilization, quality of life, and biochemically-verified abstinence from cigarettes were assessed over 18-months of follow-up. Clinical outcomes were combined with literature on changes in smoking status and the effect of smoking on health care cost, mortality, and quality of life in a Markov model of cost-effectiveness over a lifetime horizon. We discounted cost and outcomes at 3% per year and report costs in 2010 US dollars.

RESULTS:

The mean of smoking cessation services cost was $1286 in those randomized to integrated care and $551 in those receiving standard care (P < .001). There were no significant differences in the cost of mental health services or other care. After 12 months, prolonged biochemically verified abstinence was observed in 8.9% of those randomized to integrated care and 4.5% of those randomized to standard care (P = .004). The model projected that Integrated Care added $836 in lifetime cost and generated 0.0259 quality adjusted life years (QALYs), an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $32 257 per QALY. It was 86.0% likely to be cost-effective compared to a threshold of $100 000/QALY.

CONCLUSIONS:

Smoking cessation integrated with treatment for PTSD was cost-effective, within a broad confidence region, but less cost-effective than most other smoking cessation programs reported in the literature.

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Nicotine and Tobacco Research
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Mark W. Smith
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Abstract: Community hospital stays in 12 states during 2008–2009 were analyzed to determine predictors of 12-month hospital readmission and emergency department (EDs) revisits among persons with a mental health or substance abuse diagnosis. Probabilities of hospital readmission and of ED revisits were modeled as functions of patient demographics, insurance type, number of prior-year hospital stays, diagnoses and other characteristics of the initial stay, and hospital characteristics. Alcohol or drug dependence, dementias, psychotic disorders, autism, impulse control disorders, and personality disorders were most strongly associated with future inpatient admission or ED revisits within 12 months of initial encounter. Insurance type, including uninsured status, were highly significant (p < .01) predictors of both readmission and ED revisits.

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Community Mental Health Journal
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Mark W. Smith
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Outpatient treatment for substance use disorders promotes recovery and reduces readmission (1,2). We measured the annual percentage of individuals aged 13–64 who were covered under employer health plans and who received outpatient treatment for a substance use disorder within 30 days of a related inpatient stay.

All data (2001–2012) were from the Truven Health MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database, which includes claims of employed individuals and dependents from all U.S. Census divisions. Data were weighted to be nationally representative of individuals with employer-sponsored insurance, 48% of the U.S. population in 2012 (3). The denominator was number of claims that met these criteria: discharge from an inpatient acute or residential facility, age 13–64, primary ICD-9-CM discharge diagnosis of drug or alcohol abuse or dependence, discharge date between January 1 and December 1 (to allow for 30 days of December follow-up), discharge status was not death or transfer to another facility, and continued plan enrollment for 30 days after discharge. The numerator was number of denominator stays for which there was an outpatient visit related to a substance use disorder within 30 days, defined by a primary ICD-9-CM diagnosis or code pertaining to mental health or substance abuse. We captured both types of diagnoses because substance use disorders are often recorded as mental disorders.

Since 2003 the rate at which individuals have received outpatient treatment for a substance use disorder within 30 days of a related inpatient stay has alternated between plateaus and periods of increase (Figure 1). The rate has grown at least a little every year since 2005, reaching 66.1% in 2012.

A single measure in the Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS) tracks the rate of outpatient follow-up within seven or 30 days of an inpatient psychiatric discharge. There is no exact analog for substance use disorders. The most similar HEDIS measure, “engagement” in substance use disorder treatment, requires two outpatient visits related to a substance use disorder within 30 days of “initiation,” which does not require a hospital stay. The dissimilarity of the two follow-up measures makes it difficult to compare outcomes for persons with substance use disorders and those with other mental disorders. A 30-day follow-up measure for substance use disorders would promote care delivery, research, policy making, and advocacy. The figure presented here represents a first step toward that goal.

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Psychiatric Services
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Mark W. Smith
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Abstract:

I take advantage of regulatory and pricing dynamics in Medicare Part D to explore interactions among adverse selection, inertia, and regulation. I first document novel evidence of adverse selection and switching frictions within Part D using detailed administrative data. I then estimate a contract choice and pricing model that quantifies the importance of inertia for risk-sorting. I find that in Part D switching costs help sustain an adversely-selected equilibrium. I also estimate that active decision-making in the existing policy environment could lead to a substantial gain in annual consumer surplus of on average $400-$600 per capita—20%-30% of average annual spending.

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American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
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Maria Polyakova
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Please note: All research in progress seminars are off-the-record. Any information about methodology and/or results are embargoed until publication.

Abstract

Measuring and monitoring under-five mortality is a global priority and an important indicator of development. Among all the world’s regions, Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the highest mortality rates and the largest number of under-five deaths. Under-five mortality is mostly monitored at the level of countries, especially in low- and middle-income countries, where estimates mostly rely on nationally representative surveys. However, learning about child mortality at a granular level can be very informative, so we did that at a 0.1 degree x 0.1 degree resolution. We look at some implications, including the existence and extent of mortality hotspots and the importance of "institutions" in accounting for the variation in mortality.
 

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Professor, Medicine
Professor, Health Policy
Senior Fellow, by courtesy, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment
eran_bendavid MD, MS

My academic focus is on global health, health policy, infectious diseases, environmental changes, and population health. Our research primarily addresses how health policies and environmental changes affect health outcomes worldwide, with a special emphasis on population living in impoverished conditions.

Our recent publications in journals like Nature, Lancet, and JAMA Pediatrics include studies on the impact of tropical cyclones on population health and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infectivity in children. These works are part of my broader effort to understand the health consequences of environmental and policy changes.

Collaborating with trainees and leading academics in global health, our group's research interests also involve analyzing the relationship between health aid policies and their effects on child health and family planning in sub-Saharan Africa. My research typically aims to inform policy decisions and deepen the understanding of complex health dynamics.

Current projects focus on the health and social effects of pollution and natural hazards, as well as the extended implications of war on health, particularly among children and women.

Specific projects we have ongoing include:

  • What do global warming and demographic shifts imply for the population exposure to extreme heat and extreme cold events?

  • What are the implications of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) on delivery of basic health services such as vaccinations in low-income contexts?

  • What effect do malaria control programs have on child mortality?

  • What is the evidence that foreign aid for health is good diplomacy?

  • How can we compare health inequalities across countries? Is health in the U.S. uniquely unequal? 

     

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Eran Bendavid
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Grant Miller, associate professor of medicine and a Stanford Health Policy core faculty member and senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, has been working to help residents of a state in India access the micronutrients that they are lacking. The work, which involves a fortified rice, includes several Indian ministries, nonprofit organizations, and faculty from across the Stanford campus to assess and support the collaborative effort.

In this video, Miller says Stanford's collaborative community and institutes help projects like his in the southeastern India state of Tamil Nadu succeed. "Micronutrient deficiency rates in Tamil Nadu are extremely high," he says. "We're working with the government of Tamil Nadu to see if it's possible to introduce fortification into what's called the public distribution system — which distributes rice at no cost to all residents of Tamil Nadu."

And, Miller says, he would not be able to carry out that research without the teamwork generated here on campus.

 

 

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How health technology interacts with underlying cultural norms may have unanticipated consequences for development. Recent policy debates on closing the gender gap in developing countries have focused on affirmative action and economic growth, but there are reasons to expect that policies targeting the health of young children might also be effective. I investigate a national vaccination campaign targeting under-fi…ve children in Turkey, and document gains in human capital among age-eligible children of both sexes but spillover effects that accrue exclusively to older girl siblings. These …findings are consistent with predictions from a standard intrahousehold model of time allocation in the presence of gender norms regarding the division of household labor and suggest technologies and policies that improve the health of young children may have the added benefi…t of improving educational outcomes for their older sisters.

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