Abstract Objective. To develop and evaluate a clinical decision support system (CDSS) named Assessment and Treatment in Healthcare: Evidenced-Based Automation (ATHENA)-Opioid Therapy, which encourages safe and effective use of opioid therapy for chronic, noncancer pain. Design. CDSS development and iterative evaluation using the analysis, design, development, implementation, and evaluation process including simulation-based and in-clinic assessments of usability for providers followed by targeted system revisions. Results. Volunteers provided detailed feedback to guide improvements in the graphical user interface, and content and design changes to increase clinical usefulness, understandability, clinical workflow fit, and ease of completing guideline recommended practices. Revisions based on feedback increased CDSS usability ratings over time. Practice concerns outside the scope of the CDSS were also identified. Conclusions. Usability testing optimized the CDSS to better address barriers such as lack of provider education, confusion in dosing calculations and titration schedules, access to relevant patient information, provider discontinuity, documentation, and access to validated assessment tools. It also highlighted barriers to good clinical practice that are difficult to address with CDSS technology in its current conceptualization. For example, clinicians indicated that constraints on time and competing priorities in primary care, discomfort in patient-provider communications, and lack of evidence to guide opioid prescribing decisions impeded their ability to provide effective, guideline-adherent pain management. Iterative testing was essential for designing a highly usable and acceptable CDSS; however, identified barriers may limit the impact of the ATHENA-Opioid Therapy system and other CDSS on clinical practices and outcomes unless CDSS are paired with parallel initiatives to address these issues.

Background: Sodium consumption raises blood pressure, increasing the risk for heart attack and stroke. Several countries, including the United States, are considering strategies to decrease population sodium intake.

Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of 2 population strategies to reduce sodium intake: government collaboration with food manufacturers to voluntarily cut sodium in processed foods, modeled on the United Kingdom experience, and a sodium tax.

Design: A Markov model was constructed with 4 health states: well, acute myocardial infarction (MI), acute stroke, and history of MI or stroke.

Data Sources: Medical Panel Expenditure Survey (2006), Framingham Heart Study (1980 to 2003), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension trial, and other published data.

Target Population: U.S. adults aged 40 to 85 years.

Time Horizon: Lifetime.

Perspective: Societal.

Outcome Measures: Incremental costs (2008 U.S. dollars), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and MIs and strokes averted.

Results of Base-case Analysis: Collaboration with industry that decreases mean population sodium intake by 9.5% averts 513 885 strokes and 480 358 MIs over the lifetime of adults aged 40 to 85 years who are alive today compared with the status quo, increasing QALYs by 2.1 million and saving $32.1 billion in medical costs. A tax on sodium that decreases population sodium intake by 6% increases QALYs by 1.3 million and saves $22.4 billion over the same period.

Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Results are sensitive to the assumption that consumers have no disutility with modest reductions in sodium intake.

Limitation: Efforts to reduce population sodium intake could result in other dietary changes that are difficult to predict.

Conclusion: Strategies to reduce sodium intake on a population level in the United States are likely to substantially reduce stroke and MI incidence, which would save billions of dollars in medical expenses.

Primary Funding Source: Department of Veterans Affairs, Stanford University, and the National Science Foundation.

A collection of core faculty Victor Fuchs' articles on actions needed for meaningful health care reform in the United States.

• Eliminating "Waste" in Health Care
• Four Health Care Reforms for 2009
• Cost Shifting Does Not Reduce the Cost of Health Care.
• The Proposed Government Health Insurance Company - No Substitute for Real Reform
• Reforming US Health Care - Key Considerations for the New Administration.
• Health Reform: Getting The Essentials Right
• Health Care Reform - Why So Much Talk and So Little Action?
• Three "Inconvenient Truths" about Health Care
• The Perfect Storm of Overutilization
• Who Really Pays for Health Care? The Myth of "Shared Responsibility".
• What Are The Prospects For Enduring Comprehensive Health Care Reform?
• Essential Elements of a Technology and Outcomes Assessment Initiative

Abstract

The Technological Change in Health Care Research Network collected unique patient-level data on three procedures for treatment of heart attack patients (catheterization, coronary artery bypass grafts and percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty) for 17 countries over a 15-year period to examine the impact of economic and institutional factors on technology adoption. Specific institutional factors are shown to be important to the uptake of these technologies. Health-care systems characterized as public contract systems and reimbursement systems have higher adoption rates than public-integrated health-care systems. Central control of funding of investments is negatively associated with adoption rates and the impact is of the same magnitude as the overall health-care system classification. GDP per capita also has a strong role in initial adoption. The impact of income and institutional characteristics on the utilization rates of the three procedures diminishes over time.

The world of genomics is transforming medicine, and is likely to influence the future development of new drugs, diagnostics, and vaccines. To date, the greater focus of genomics and medicine has been on conditions affecting resourcewealthy settings, primarily involving scientists and companies in those settings. However, we believe that it is possible to expand genomics into a more global technology that can also focus on diseases of resource-limited settings. This goal can be achieved if genomics is made a global priority. We feel one way to move in this direction is through a comprehensive approach to infectious diseases-i.e., an Infectious Disease Genomics Project-that would mirror the Human Genome Project. Without an active, unified effort specifically focused on allowing actors at any level to participate in the genomics revolution, infectious diseases that primarily affect the poor will likely not achieve the same level of scientifici advancement as diseases affecting the wealthy.

This paper develops a mathematical/economic framework to address the following question: Given a particular population, a specific HIV prevention program and a fixed amount of funds that could be invested in the program, how much money should be invested?

Context: The aging of the baby boom generation, the extension of life, and progressive increases in disability-free life expectancy have generated a dramatic demographic transition in the United States. Official government forecasts may, however, have inadvertently underestimated life expectancy, which would have major policy implications, since small differences in forecasts of life expectancy produce very large differences in the number of people surviving to an older age. This article presents a new set of population and life expectancy forecasts for the United States, focusing on transitions that will take place by midcentury.

Methods: Forecasts were made with a cohort-components methodology, based on the premise that the risk of death will be influenced in the coming decades by accelerated advances in biomedical technology that either delay the onset and age progression of major fatal diseases or that slow the aging process itself.

Findings: Results indicate that the current forecasts of the U.S. Social Security Administration and U.S. Census Bureau may underestimate the rise in life expectancy at birth for men and women combined, by 2050, from 3.1 to 7.9 years.

Conclusions: The cumulative outlays for Medicare and Social Security could be higher by $3.2 to $8.3 trillion relative to current government forecasts. This article discusses the implications of these results regarding the benefits and costs of an aging society and the prospect that health disparities could attenuate some of these changes.

The utility of the life-course framework to address disparities in child health is based on its ability to integrate the science of child development with the requirements of effective and just public policy. I argue that the life-course framework is best assessed in a historical context and through 4 essential observations. First, early genetic and environmental interactions are complex and influence outcomes in different settings in very different ways. Second, these early-life interactions are themselves subject to considerable later influences and, therefore, may not be highly predictive of later outcomes. Third, the etiologic nature or timing of early-life interactions does not, per se, determine if their life-course effects are amenable to later interventions. Fourth, a highly deterministic view of early-life interactions is not supported by the science and can generate counterproductive approaches to research and policy development. Finally, an alternative approach is proposed on the basis of a "human-capacity" model of the life course that connects the search for underlying basic mechanisms with a policy-based examination of the comparative effectiveness of influences at different developmental stages. This approach suggests an expanded research and policy agenda that might be more capable of generating urgently needed strategies for reducing disparities in child health. Such an approach could ultimately define more comprehensively the power and limits of life-course effects in shaping the social distribution of health outcomes in the real world.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a technology frequently used to evaluate low back pain, despite evidence that challenges the usefulness of routine MRI and the surgical interventions it may trigger. We analyze the relationship between MRI supply and care for fee-for-service Medicare patients with low back pain. We find that increases in MRI supply are related to higher use of both low back MRI and surgery. This is worrisome, and careful attention should be paid to assessing the outcomes for patients.

Background: The rates of induction of labor and elective induction of labor are increasing. Whether elective induction of labor improves outcomes or simply leads to greater complications and health care costs is commonly debated in the literature.

Purpose: To compare the benefits and harms of elective induction of labor and expectant management of pregnancy.

Data Sources: MEDLINE (through February 2009), Web of Science, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (through March 2009), bibliographies of included studies, and previous systematic reviews.

Study Selection: Experimental and observational studies of elective induction of labor reported in English.

Data Extraction: Two authors abstracted study design; patient characteristics; quality criteria; and outcomes, including cesarean delivery and maternal and neonatal morbidity.

Data Synthesis: Of 6117 potentially relevant articles, 36 met inclusion criteria: 11 randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) and 25 observational studies. Overall, expectant management of pregnancy was associated with a higher odds ratio (OR) of cesarean delivery than was elective induction of labor (OR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.07 to 1.39]; absolute risk difference, 1.9 percentage points [CI, 0.2 to 3.7 percentage points]) in 9 RCTs. Women at or beyond 41 completed weeks of gestation who were managed expectantly had a higher risk for cesarean delivery (OR, 1.21 [CI, 1.01 to 1.46]), but this difference was not statistically significant in women at less than 41 completed weeks of gestation (OR, 1.73 [CI, 0.67 to 4.5]). Women who were expectantly managed were more likely to have meconium-stained amniotic fluid than those who were electively induced (OR, 2.04 [CI, 1.34 to 3.09]).

Limitations: There were no recent RCTs of elective induction of labor at less than 41 weeks of gestation. The 2 studies conducted at less than 41 weeks of gestation were of poor quality and were not generalizable to current practice.

Conclusion: RCTs suggest that elective induction of labor at 41 weeks of gestation and beyond is associated with a decreased risk for cesarean delivery and meconium-stained amniotic fluid. There are concerns about the translation of these findings into actual practice; thus, future studies should examine elective induction of labor in settings where most obstetric care is provided.