BACKGROUND: The optimal community-level approach to control pandemic influenza is unknown. METHODS: We estimated the health outcomes and costs of combinations of 4 social distancing strategies and 2 antiviral medication strategies to mitigate an influenza pandemic for a demographically typical US community. We used a social network, agent-based model to estimate strategy effectiveness and an economic model to estimate health resource use and costs. We used data from the literature to estimate clinical outcomes and health care utilization. RESULTS: At 1% influenza mortality, moderate infectivity (R(o) of 2.1 or greater), and 60% population compliance, the preferred strategy is adult and child social distancing, school closure, and antiviral treatment and prophylaxis. This strategy reduces the prevalence of cases in the population from 35% to 10%, averts 2480 cases per 10,000 population, costs $2700 per case averted, and costs $31,300 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, compared with the same strategy without school closure. The addition of school closure to adult and child social distancing and antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, if available, is not cost-effective for viral strains with low infectivity (R(o) of 1.6 and below) and low case fatality rates (below 1%). High population compliance lowers costs to society substantially when the pandemic strain is severe (R(o) of 2.1 or greater). CONCLUSIONS: Multilayered mitigation strategies that include adult and child social distancing, use of antivirals, and school closure are cost-effective for a moderate to severe pandemic. Choice of strategy should be driven by the severity of the pandemic, as defined by the case fatality rate and infectivity.

In "Facts and Fictions About an Aging America" (Contexts, Fall 2009), our research group unpacked a series of widely held, inter-related misconceptions about our aging population and outlined the broad societal implications of the realities. With the realities articulated and myths exposed, we can start to explore how policy-makers can effectively invest across the life course to create a successful aging society. We call for a new approach to aging—one that involves not only new policies, but also new ways to think about aging in America. Both our reframing and subsequent policy proposals will increase the likelihood that the United States, as it ages, will become a more productive and equitable society.

A collection of core faculty Victor Fuchs' articles on actions needed for meaningful health care reform in the United States.

• Eliminating "Waste" in Health Care
• Four Health Care Reforms for 2009
• Cost Shifting Does Not Reduce the Cost of Health Care.
• The Proposed Government Health Insurance Company - No Substitute for Real Reform
• Reforming US Health Care - Key Considerations for the New Administration.
• Health Reform: Getting The Essentials Right
• Health Care Reform - Why So Much Talk and So Little Action?
• Three "Inconvenient Truths" about Health Care
• The Perfect Storm of Overutilization
• Who Really Pays for Health Care? The Myth of "Shared Responsibility".
• What Are The Prospects For Enduring Comprehensive Health Care Reform?
• Essential Elements of a Technology and Outcomes Assessment Initiative

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

To examine the relationship between measures of hospital safety climate and hospital performance on selected Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs).

DATA SOURCES:

Primary data from a 2004 survey of hospital personnel. Secondary data from the 2005 Medicare Provider Analysis and Review File and 2004 American Hospital Association's Annual Survey of Hospitals.

STUDY DESIGN:

A cross-sectional study of 91 hospitals.

DATA COLLECTION:

Negative binomial regressions used an unweighted, risk-adjusted PSI composite as dependent variable and safety climate scores and controls as independent variables. Some specifications included interpersonal, work unit, and organizational safety climate dimensions. Others included separate measures for senior managers and frontline personnel's safety climate perceptions.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:

Hospitals with better safety climate overall had lower relative incidence of PSIs, as did hospitals with better scores on safety climate dimensions measuring interpersonal beliefs regarding shame and blame. Frontline personnel's perceptions of better safety climate predicted lower risk of experiencing PSIs, but senior manager perceptions did not.

CONCLUSIONS:

The results link hospital safety climate to indicators of potential safety events. Some aspects of safety climate are more closely related to safety events than others. Perceptions about safety climate among some groups, such as frontline staff, are more closely related than perceptions in other groups.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To assess the health literacy of US parents and explore the role of health literacy in mediating child health disparities.

METHODS: A cross-sectional study was performed for a nationally representative sample of US parents from the 2003 National Assessment of Adult Literacy. Parent performance on 13 child health-related tasks was assessed by simple weighted analyses. Logistic regression analyses were performed to describe factors associated with low parent health literacy and to explore the relationship between health literacy and self-reported child health insurance status, difficulty understanding over-the-counter medication labeling, and use of food labels.

RESULTS: More than 6100 parents made up the sample (representing 72600098 US parents); 28.7% of the parents had below-basic/basic health literacy, 68.4% were unable to enter names and birth dates correctly on a health insurance form, 65.9% were unable to calculate the annual cost of a health insurance policy on the basis of family size, and 46.4% were unable to perform at least 1 of 2 medication-related tasks. Parents with below-basic health literacy were more likely to have a child without health insurance in their household (adjusted odds ratio: 2.4 [95% confidence interval: 1.1–4.9]) compared with parents with proficient health literacy. Parents with below-basic health literacy had 3.4 times the odds (95% confidence interval: 1.6–7.4) of reporting difficulty understanding over-the-counter medication labels. Parent health literacy was associated with nutrition label use in unadjusted analyses but did not retain significance in multivariate analyses. Health literacy accounted for some of the effect of education, racial/ethnic, immigrant-status, linguistic, and income-related disparities.

CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of US parents have limited health-literacy skills. Decreasing literacy demands on parents, including simplification of health insurance and other medical forms, as well as medication and food labels, is needed to decrease health care access barriers for children and allow for informed parent decision-making. Addressing low parent health literacy may ameliorate existing child health disparities.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To describe pediatricians' self-reported experiences with health literacy, use of basic and enhanced communication techniques, and perceived barriers to effective communication during office visits.

DESIGN/METHODS: A national, random sample of 1605 nonretired, posttraining American Academy of Pediatrics members were surveyed in 2007 about health literacy and patient communication as part of the Periodic Survey of Fellows. The response rate was 56% (N = 900).

RESULTS: Eight-one percent of the pediatricians were aware of a situation in the previous 12 months in which a parent had not sufficiently understood health information that had been delivered to him or her. In addition, 44% of all pediatricians were aware of a communication-related error in patient care within the previous 12 months. Using simple language (99%), repeating key information (92%), and presenting only 2 or 3 concepts at a time (76%) were the most commonly used communication strategies. Enhanced communication techniques recommended by health literacy experts such as teach-back and indicating key points on written educational materials were used less often (23% and 28%, respectively). The most common reported barriers to effective communication were limited time to discuss information (73%), volume of information (65%), and complexity of information (64%). The majority of physicians rated themselves highly in their ability to identify caregiver understanding (64%), but only 21% rated themselves as very good or excellent in identifying a parent with a literacy problem. Fifty-seven percent of the respondents were interested in training to improve communication skills, and 58% reported that they would be very likely to use easy-to-read written materials, if available from the American Academy of Pediatrics.

CONCLUSIONS: Pediatricians are aware of health literacy–related problems and the need for good communication with families but struggle with time demands to implement these skills. Despite awareness of communication-related errors in patient care, pediatricians report underutilizing enhanced techniques known to improve communication.

Context: The aging of the baby boom generation, the extension of life, and progressive increases in disability-free life expectancy have generated a dramatic demographic transition in the United States. Official government forecasts may, however, have inadvertently underestimated life expectancy, which would have major policy implications, since small differences in forecasts of life expectancy produce very large differences in the number of people surviving to an older age. This article presents a new set of population and life expectancy forecasts for the United States, focusing on transitions that will take place by midcentury.

Methods: Forecasts were made with a cohort-components methodology, based on the premise that the risk of death will be influenced in the coming decades by accelerated advances in biomedical technology that either delay the onset and age progression of major fatal diseases or that slow the aging process itself.

Findings: Results indicate that the current forecasts of the U.S. Social Security Administration and U.S. Census Bureau may underestimate the rise in life expectancy at birth for men and women combined, by 2050, from 3.1 to 7.9 years.

Conclusions: The cumulative outlays for Medicare and Social Security could be higher by $3.2 to $8.3 trillion relative to current government forecasts. This article discusses the implications of these results regarding the benefits and costs of an aging society and the prospect that health disparities could attenuate some of these changes.

Our healthcare system is fragmented, with a misalignment of incentives, or lack of coordination, that spawns inefficient allocation of resources. Fragmentation adversely impacts quality, cost, and outcomes. Eliminating waste from unnecessary, unsafe care is crucial for improving quality and reducing costs--and making the system financially sustainable. Many believe this can be achieved through greater integration of healthcare delivery, more specifically via integrated delivery systems (IDSs). An IDS is an organized, coordinated, and collaborative network that links various healthcare providers to provide a coordinated, vertical continuum of services to a particular patient population or community. It is also accountable, both clinically and fiscally, for the clinical outcomes and health status of the population or community served, and has systems in place to manage and improve them. The marketplace already contains numerous styles and degrees of integration, ranging from Kaiser Permanente-style full integration, to more loosely organized individual practice associations, to public-private partnerships. Evidence suggests that IDSs can improve healthcare quality, improve outcomes, and reduce costs--especially for patients with complex needs--if properly implemented and coordinated. No single approach or public policy will fix the fragmented healthcare system, but IDSs represent an important step in the right direction.

This study examined whether externally rated job demand and control were associated with depression diagnosis claims in a heavy industrial cohort. The retrospective cohort sample consisted of 7,566 hourly workers aged 18-64 years who were actively employed at 11 US plants between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2003, and free of depression diagnosis claims during an initial 2-year run-in period. Logistic regression analysis was used to model the effect of tertiles of demand and control exposure on depression diagnosis claims. Demand had a significant positive association with depression diagnosis claims in bivariate models and models adjusted for demographic (age, gender, race, education, job grade, tenure) and lifestyle (smoking status, body mass index, cholesterol level) variables (high demand odds ratio = 1.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.86). Control was associated with greater risk of depression diagnosis at moderate levels in unadjusted models only (odds ratio = 1.47, 95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.93), while low control, contrary to expectation, was not associated with depression. The effects of the externally rated demand exposure were lost with adjustment for location. This may reflect differences in measurement or classification of exposure, differences in depression diagnosis by location, or other location-specific factors.

Abstract

Objectives. We assessed the potential health and economic benefits of reducing common risk factors in older Americans.
Methods. A dynamic simulation model tracked a national cohort of persons 51 and 52 years of age to project their health and medical spending in prevention scenarios for diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and smoking.
Results. The gain in life span from successful treatment of a person aged 51 or 52 years for obesity would be 0.85 years; for hypertension, 2.05 years; and for diabetes, 3.17 years. A 51- or 52-year-old person who quit smoking would gain 3.44 years. Despite living longer, those successfully treated for obesity, hypertension, or diabetes would have lower lifetime medical spending, exclusive of prevention costs. Smoking cessation would lead to increased lifetime spending. We used traditional valuations for a life-year to calculate that successful treatments would be worth, per capita, $198018 (diabetes), $137964 (hypertension), $118946 (smoking), and $51750 (obesity).
Conclusions. Effective prevention could substantially improve the health of older Americans, and—despite increases in longevity—such benefits could be achieved with little or no additional lifetime medical spending.