Background: Sodium consumption raises blood pressure, increasing the risk for heart attack and stroke. Several countries, including the United States, are considering strategies to decrease population sodium intake.

Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of 2 population strategies to reduce sodium intake: government collaboration with food manufacturers to voluntarily cut sodium in processed foods, modeled on the United Kingdom experience, and a sodium tax.

Design: A Markov model was constructed with 4 health states: well, acute myocardial infarction (MI), acute stroke, and history of MI or stroke.

Data Sources: Medical Panel Expenditure Survey (2006), Framingham Heart Study (1980 to 2003), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension trial, and other published data.

Target Population: U.S. adults aged 40 to 85 years.

Time Horizon: Lifetime.

Perspective: Societal.

Outcome Measures: Incremental costs (2008 U.S. dollars), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and MIs and strokes averted.

Results of Base-case Analysis: Collaboration with industry that decreases mean population sodium intake by 9.5% averts 513 885 strokes and 480 358 MIs over the lifetime of adults aged 40 to 85 years who are alive today compared with the status quo, increasing QALYs by 2.1 million and saving $32.1 billion in medical costs. A tax on sodium that decreases population sodium intake by 6% increases QALYs by 1.3 million and saves $22.4 billion over the same period.

Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Results are sensitive to the assumption that consumers have no disutility with modest reductions in sodium intake.

Limitation: Efforts to reduce population sodium intake could result in other dietary changes that are difficult to predict.

Conclusion: Strategies to reduce sodium intake on a population level in the United States are likely to substantially reduce stroke and MI incidence, which would save billions of dollars in medical expenses.

Primary Funding Source: Department of Veterans Affairs, Stanford University, and the National Science Foundation.

Background: Sodium consumption raises blood pressure, increasing the risk for heart attack and stroke. Several countries, including the United States, are considering strategies to decrease population sodium intake.

Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of 2 population strategies to reduce sodium intake: government collaboration with food manufacturers to voluntarily cut sodium in processed foods, modeled on the United Kingdom experience, and a sodium tax.

Design: A Markov model was constructed with 4 health states: well, acute myocardial infarction (MI), acute stroke, and history of MI or stroke.

Data Sources: Medical Panel Expenditure Survey (2006), Framingham Heart Study (1980 to 2003), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension trial, and other published data.

Target Population: U.S. adults aged 40 to 85 years.

Time Horizon: Lifetime.

Perspective: Societal.

Outcome Measures: Incremental costs (2008 U.S. dollars), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and MIs and strokes averted.

Results of Base-case Analysis: Collaboration with industry that decreases mean population sodium intake by 9.5% averts 513 885 strokes and 480 358 MIs over the lifetime of adults aged 40 to 85 years who are alive today compared with the status quo, increasing QALYs by 2.1 million and saving $32.1 billion in medical costs. A tax on sodium that decreases population sodium intake by 6% increases QALYs by 1.3 million and saves $22.4 billion over the same period.

Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Results are sensitive to the assumption that consumers have no disutility with modest reductions in sodium intake.

Limitation: Efforts to reduce population sodium intake could result in other dietary changes that are difficult to predict.

Conclusion: Strategies to reduce sodium intake on a population level in the United States are likely to substantially reduce stroke and MI incidence, which would save billions of dollars in medical expenses.

Primary Funding Source: Department of Veterans Affairs, Stanford University, and the National Science Foundation.

BACKGROUND: The optimal community-level approach to control pandemic influenza is unknown. METHODS: We estimated the health outcomes and costs of combinations of 4 social distancing strategies and 2 antiviral medication strategies to mitigate an influenza pandemic for a demographically typical US community. We used a social network, agent-based model to estimate strategy effectiveness and an economic model to estimate health resource use and costs. We used data from the literature to estimate clinical outcomes and health care utilization. RESULTS: At 1% influenza mortality, moderate infectivity (R(o) of 2.1 or greater), and 60% population compliance, the preferred strategy is adult and child social distancing, school closure, and antiviral treatment and prophylaxis. This strategy reduces the prevalence of cases in the population from 35% to 10%, averts 2480 cases per 10,000 population, costs $2700 per case averted, and costs $31,300 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, compared with the same strategy without school closure. The addition of school closure to adult and child social distancing and antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, if available, is not cost-effective for viral strains with low infectivity (R(o) of 1.6 and below) and low case fatality rates (below 1%). High population compliance lowers costs to society substantially when the pandemic strain is severe (R(o) of 2.1 or greater). CONCLUSIONS: Multilayered mitigation strategies that include adult and child social distancing, use of antivirals, and school closure are cost-effective for a moderate to severe pandemic. Choice of strategy should be driven by the severity of the pandemic, as defined by the case fatality rate and infectivity.

In "Facts and Fictions About an Aging America" (Contexts, Fall 2009), our research group unpacked a series of widely held, inter-related misconceptions about our aging population and outlined the broad societal implications of the realities. With the realities articulated and myths exposed, we can start to explore how policy-makers can effectively invest across the life course to create a successful aging society. We call for a new approach to aging—one that involves not only new policies, but also new ways to think about aging in America. Both our reframing and subsequent policy proposals will increase the likelihood that the United States, as it ages, will become a more productive and equitable society.

A collection of core faculty Victor Fuchs' articles on actions needed for meaningful health care reform in the United States.

• Eliminating "Waste" in Health Care
• Four Health Care Reforms for 2009
• Cost Shifting Does Not Reduce the Cost of Health Care.
• The Proposed Government Health Insurance Company - No Substitute for Real Reform
• Reforming US Health Care - Key Considerations for the New Administration.
• Health Reform: Getting The Essentials Right
• Health Care Reform - Why So Much Talk and So Little Action?
• Three "Inconvenient Truths" about Health Care
• The Perfect Storm of Overutilization
• Who Really Pays for Health Care? The Myth of "Shared Responsibility".
• What Are The Prospects For Enduring Comprehensive Health Care Reform?
• Essential Elements of a Technology and Outcomes Assessment Initiative

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

To examine the relationship between measures of hospital safety climate and hospital performance on selected Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs).

DATA SOURCES:

Primary data from a 2004 survey of hospital personnel. Secondary data from the 2005 Medicare Provider Analysis and Review File and 2004 American Hospital Association's Annual Survey of Hospitals.

STUDY DESIGN:

A cross-sectional study of 91 hospitals.

DATA COLLECTION:

Negative binomial regressions used an unweighted, risk-adjusted PSI composite as dependent variable and safety climate scores and controls as independent variables. Some specifications included interpersonal, work unit, and organizational safety climate dimensions. Others included separate measures for senior managers and frontline personnel's safety climate perceptions.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:

Hospitals with better safety climate overall had lower relative incidence of PSIs, as did hospitals with better scores on safety climate dimensions measuring interpersonal beliefs regarding shame and blame. Frontline personnel's perceptions of better safety climate predicted lower risk of experiencing PSIs, but senior manager perceptions did not.

CONCLUSIONS:

The results link hospital safety climate to indicators of potential safety events. Some aspects of safety climate are more closely related to safety events than others. Perceptions about safety climate among some groups, such as frontline staff, are more closely related than perceptions in other groups.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To assess the health literacy of US parents and explore the role of health literacy in mediating child health disparities.

METHODS: A cross-sectional study was performed for a nationally representative sample of US parents from the 2003 National Assessment of Adult Literacy. Parent performance on 13 child health-related tasks was assessed by simple weighted analyses. Logistic regression analyses were performed to describe factors associated with low parent health literacy and to explore the relationship between health literacy and self-reported child health insurance status, difficulty understanding over-the-counter medication labeling, and use of food labels.

RESULTS: More than 6100 parents made up the sample (representing 72600098 US parents); 28.7% of the parents had below-basic/basic health literacy, 68.4% were unable to enter names and birth dates correctly on a health insurance form, 65.9% were unable to calculate the annual cost of a health insurance policy on the basis of family size, and 46.4% were unable to perform at least 1 of 2 medication-related tasks. Parents with below-basic health literacy were more likely to have a child without health insurance in their household (adjusted odds ratio: 2.4 [95% confidence interval: 1.1–4.9]) compared with parents with proficient health literacy. Parents with below-basic health literacy had 3.4 times the odds (95% confidence interval: 1.6–7.4) of reporting difficulty understanding over-the-counter medication labels. Parent health literacy was associated with nutrition label use in unadjusted analyses but did not retain significance in multivariate analyses. Health literacy accounted for some of the effect of education, racial/ethnic, immigrant-status, linguistic, and income-related disparities.

CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of US parents have limited health-literacy skills. Decreasing literacy demands on parents, including simplification of health insurance and other medical forms, as well as medication and food labels, is needed to decrease health care access barriers for children and allow for informed parent decision-making. Addressing low parent health literacy may ameliorate existing child health disparities.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To describe pediatricians' self-reported experiences with health literacy, use of basic and enhanced communication techniques, and perceived barriers to effective communication during office visits.

DESIGN/METHODS: A national, random sample of 1605 nonretired, posttraining American Academy of Pediatrics members were surveyed in 2007 about health literacy and patient communication as part of the Periodic Survey of Fellows. The response rate was 56% (N = 900).

RESULTS: Eight-one percent of the pediatricians were aware of a situation in the previous 12 months in which a parent had not sufficiently understood health information that had been delivered to him or her. In addition, 44% of all pediatricians were aware of a communication-related error in patient care within the previous 12 months. Using simple language (99%), repeating key information (92%), and presenting only 2 or 3 concepts at a time (76%) were the most commonly used communication strategies. Enhanced communication techniques recommended by health literacy experts such as teach-back and indicating key points on written educational materials were used less often (23% and 28%, respectively). The most common reported barriers to effective communication were limited time to discuss information (73%), volume of information (65%), and complexity of information (64%). The majority of physicians rated themselves highly in their ability to identify caregiver understanding (64%), but only 21% rated themselves as very good or excellent in identifying a parent with a literacy problem. Fifty-seven percent of the respondents were interested in training to improve communication skills, and 58% reported that they would be very likely to use easy-to-read written materials, if available from the American Academy of Pediatrics.

CONCLUSIONS: Pediatricians are aware of health literacy–related problems and the need for good communication with families but struggle with time demands to implement these skills. Despite awareness of communication-related errors in patient care, pediatricians report underutilizing enhanced techniques known to improve communication.

Context: The aging of the baby boom generation, the extension of life, and progressive increases in disability-free life expectancy have generated a dramatic demographic transition in the United States. Official government forecasts may, however, have inadvertently underestimated life expectancy, which would have major policy implications, since small differences in forecasts of life expectancy produce very large differences in the number of people surviving to an older age. This article presents a new set of population and life expectancy forecasts for the United States, focusing on transitions that will take place by midcentury.

Methods: Forecasts were made with a cohort-components methodology, based on the premise that the risk of death will be influenced in the coming decades by accelerated advances in biomedical technology that either delay the onset and age progression of major fatal diseases or that slow the aging process itself.

Findings: Results indicate that the current forecasts of the U.S. Social Security Administration and U.S. Census Bureau may underestimate the rise in life expectancy at birth for men and women combined, by 2050, from 3.1 to 7.9 years.

Conclusions: The cumulative outlays for Medicare and Social Security could be higher by $3.2 to $8.3 trillion relative to current government forecasts. This article discusses the implications of these results regarding the benefits and costs of an aging society and the prospect that health disparities could attenuate some of these changes.