Background: Pulmonary nodules are spherical radiographic opacities that measure up to 30 mm in diameter. Nodules are extremely common in clinical practice and challenging to manage, especially small, "subcentimeter" nodules. Identification of malignant nodules is important because they represent a potentially curable form of lung cancer.

Methods: We developed evidence-based clinical practice guidelines based on a systematic literature review and discussion with a large, multidisciplinary group of clinical experts and other stakeholders.

Results: We generated a list of 29 recommendations for managing the solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN) that measures at least 8 to 10 mm in diameter; small, subcentimeter nodules that measure < 8 mm to 10 mm in diameter; and multiple nodules when they are detected incidentally during evaluation of the SPN. Recommendations stress the value of risk factor assessment, the utility of imaging tests (especially old films), the need to weigh the risks and benefits of various management strategies (biopsy, surgery, and observation with serial imaging tests), and the importance of eliciting patient preferences.

Conclusion: Patients with pulmonary nodules should be evaluated by estimation of the probability of malignancy, performance of imaging tests to characterize the lesion(s) better, evaluation of the risks associated with various management alternatives, and elicitation of patient preferences for treatment.

We developed a mathematical model to simulate the impact of various partially effective preventive HIV vaccination scenarios in a population at high risk for heterosexually transmitted HIV. We considered an adult population defined by gender (male/female), disease stage (HIV-negative, HIV-positive, AIDS, and death), and vaccination status (unvaccinated/vaccinated) in Soweto, South Africa. Input data included initial HIV prevalence of 20% (women) and 12% (men), vaccination coverage of 75%, and exclusive male negotiation of condom use.

We explored how changes in vaccine efficacy and postvaccination condom use would affect HIV prevalence and total HIV infections prevented over a 10-year period. In the base-case scenario, a 40% effective HIV vaccine would avert 61,000 infections and reduce future HIV prevalence from 20% to 13%. A 25% increase (or decrease) in condom use among vaccinated individuals would instead avert 75,000 (or only 46,000) infections and reduce the HIV prevalence to 12% (or only 15%). Furthermore, certain combinations of increased risk behavior and vaccines with <43% efficacy could worsen the epidemic. Even modestly effective HIV vaccines can confer enormous benefits in terms of HIV infections averted and decreased HIV prevalence. However, programs to reduce risk behavior may be important components of successful vaccination campaigns.

Background: Effective strategies for managing patients with solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN) depend critically on the pre-test probability of malignancy.

Objective: To validate two previously developed models that estimate the probability that an indeterminate solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN) is malignant, based on clinical characteristics and radiographic findings.

Methods: We retrospectively collected data on age, smoking and cancer history, nodule size, location, and spiculation from the medical records of 151 veterans (145 men, 6 women; range 39 to 87 years) with an SPN measuring 7 to 30 mm (inclusive) and a final diagnosis established by histopathology or 2-year follow-up. We compared each patient's final diagnosis to the probability of malignancy predicted by two models: one developed by investigators at the Mayo Clinic and another that we developed from patients enrolled in a VA Cooperative Study. We assessed model accuracy by calculating areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and model calibration by comparing predicted and observed rates of malignancy.

Results: The area under the ROC curve for the Mayo Clinic model (0.80; 95% CI 0.72-0.88) was higher than that of the VA model (0.73; 95% CI 0.64-0.82), but this difference was not statistically significant (Delta=0.07; 95% CI -0.03 to 0.16). Calibration curves showed that the probability of malignancy was underestimated by the Mayo Clinic model and overestimated by the VA model.

Conclusions: Two existing prediction models are sufficiently accurate to guide decisions about the selection and interpretation of subsequent diagnostic tests in patients with SPNs, although clinicians should also consider the prevalence of malignancy in their practice setting when choosing a model.

This issue of CHP/PCOR's Quarterly Update covers news from the Spring 2007 quarter and includes articles about:

• the HIV/AIDS International Conference in St. Petersburg, Russia, that was attended by the CHP/PCOR National Institute on Drug Abuse project team;
• a special international health section that highlights HIV/AIDS research in Zimbabwe, and two Payne lecturer talks, given by David Heymann and Peter Piot, speaking on infectious diseases and HIV/AIDS, respectively;
• two Research in Brief selections -- one highlights health care financing structures in high-income countries, and the second covers an ongoing trial that incorporates a smoking cessation program into posttraumatic stress disorder treatment at the VA;
• a Staff Spotlight feature on new CHP/PCOR core faculty member Sally Horwitz;
• two conferences -- one hosted by the Stanford International Initiative and the other a National Summit on America's Children at the Capitol.

BACKGROUND: Cervical-cancer screening strategies that involve the use of conventional cytology and require multiple visits have been impractical in developing countries. METHODS: We used computer-based models to assess the cost-effectiveness of a variety of cervical-cancer screening strategies in India, Kenya, Peru, South Africa, and Thailand. Primary data were combined with data from the literature to estimate age-specific incidence and mortality rates for cancer and the effectiveness of screening for and treatment of precancerous lesions. We assessed the direct medical, time, and program-related costs of strategies that differed according to screening test, targeted age and frequency, and number of clinic visits required. Single-visit strategies involved the assumption that screening and treatment could be provided in the same day. Outcomes included the lifetime risk of cancer, years of life saved, lifetime costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios (cost per year of life saved). RESULTS: The most cost-effective strategies were those that required the fewest visits, resulting in improved follow-up testing and treatment. Screening women once in their lifetime, at the age of 35 years, with a one-visit or two-visit screening strategy involving visual inspection of the cervix with acetic acid or DNA testing for human papillomavirus (HPV) in cervical cell samples, reduced the lifetime risk of cancer by approximately 25 to 36 percent, and cost less than 500 dollars per year of life saved. Relative cancer risk declined by an additional 40 percent with two screenings (at 35 and 40 years of age), resulting in a cost per year of life saved that was less than each country's per capita gross domestic product--a very cost-effective result, according to the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health. CONCLUSIONS: Cervical-cancer screening strategies incorporating visual inspection of the cervix with acetic acid or DNA testing for HPV in one or two clinical visits are cost-effective alternatives to conventional three-visit cytology-based screening programs in resource-poor settings.

BACKGROUND: This study was designed to quantify the resources used in reestablishing contact with women who missed their scheduled cervical cancer screening visits and to assess the success of this effort in reducing loss to follow-up in a developing country setting. METHODS: Women were enrolled in this Cape Town, South Africa-based screening study between 2000 and 2003, and all had scheduled follow-up visits in 2003. Community health worker (CHW) time, vehicle use, maintenance, and depreciation were estimated from weekly logs and cost accounting systems. The percentage of women who attended their scheduled visit, those who attended after CHW contact(s), and those who never returned despite attempted contact(s) were determined. The number of CHW visits per woman was also estimated. RESULTS: 3,711 visits were scheduled in 2003. Of these, 2,321 (62.5%) occurred without CHW contact, 918 (24.8%) occurred after contact(s), and 472 (12.7%) did not occur despite contact(s). Loss to follow-up was reduced from 21% to 6%, 39% to 10%, and 50% to 24% for 6, 12, and 24-month visits. CHWs attempted 3,200 contacts in 530 trips. On average, 3 CHWs attempted to contact 6 participants over each 111 minute trip. The per-person cost (2003 Rand) for these activities was 12.75, 24.92, and 40.50 for 6, 12, and 24-month visits. CONCLUSION: CHW contact with women who missed scheduled visits increased their return rate. Cost-effectiveness analyses aimed at policy decisions about cervical cancer screening in developing countries should incorporate these findings.

Objective: To assess the functional and behavioral health of unaccompanied Sudanese refugee minors approximately 1 year after resettlement in the United States.

Design: A descriptive survey.

Setting: Local refugee foster care programs affiliated with the US Unaccompanied Refugee Minors Program.

Participants: A total of 304 Sudanese refugee minors enrolled in the US Unaccompanied Refugee Minors Program.

Main Outcome Measures: Health outcomes were assessed using the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire and the Child Health Questionnaire. Outcomes included the diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder and scores on all Child Health Questionnaire subscales and global single-item assessments.

Results: Twenty percent of the minors had a diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder and were more likely to have lower (worse) scores on all the Child Health Questionnaire subscales. Low functional and behavioral health scores were seen mainly in functioning in the home and in subjective health ratings. Social isolation and history of personal injury were associated with posttraumatic stress disorder.

Conclusions: Unaccompanied Sudanese minors have done well in general. The minors function well in school and in activities; however, behavioral and emotional problems manifest in their home lives and emotional states. The subset of children with traumatic symptoms had characteristics that may distinguish them from their peers and that may inform future resettlement services for unaccompanied minors in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Positron emission tomography (PET) with 18-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) is a potentially useful but expensive test to diagnose solitary pulmonary nodules. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies for pulmonary nodule diagnosis and to specifically compare strategies that did and did not include FDG-PET. DESIGN: Decision model. DATA SOURCES: Accuracy and complications of diagnostic tests were estimated by using meta-analysis and literature review. Modeled survival was based on data from a large tumor registry. Cost estimates were derived from Medicare reimbursement and other sources. TARGET POPULATION: All adult patients with a new, noncalcified pulmonary nodule seen on chest radiograph. TIME HORIZON: Patient lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Societal. INTERVENTION: 40 clinically plausible combinations of 5 diagnostic interventions, including computed tomography, FDG-PET, transthoracic needle biopsy, surgery, and watchful waiting. OUTCOME MEASURES: Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: The cost-effectiveness of strategies depended critically on the pretest probability of malignancy. For patients with low pretest probability (26%), strategies that used FDG-PET selectively when computed tomography results were possibly malignant cost as little as 20 000 dollars per QALY gained. For patients with high pretest probability (79%), strategies that used FDG-PET selectively when computed tomography results were benign cost as little as 16 000 dollars per QALY gained. For patients with intermediate pretest probability (55%), FDG-PET strategies cost more than 220 000 dollars per QALY gained because they were more costly but only marginally more effective than computed tomography-based strategies. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: The choice of strategy also depended on the risk for surgical complications, the probability of nondiagnostic needle biopsy, the sensitivity of computed tomography, and patient preferences for time spent in watchful waiting. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, FDG-PET strategies were cost saving or cost less than 100 000 dollars per QALY gained in 76.7%, 24.4%, and 99.9% of computer simulations for patients with low, intermediate, and high pretest probability, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: FDG-PET should be used selectively when pretest probability and computed tomography findings are discordant or in patients with intermediate pretest probability who are at high risk for surgical complications. In most other circumstances, computed tomography-based strategies result in similar quality-adjusted life-years and lower costs.

Background: Gastric acid is an important defence against enteric infection. Studies investigating the relationship between hypochlorhydria and enteric infections or gastric malignancy have been limited by difficulties in the non-invasive measurement of gastric acidity. AIM: To develop a blood test for hypochlorhydria based on the quininium resin test.

Methods: Quininium resin dissociates to liberate free quinine at pH

Results: After quininium resin ingestion, mean quinine levels were lower in the acid-suppressed than in the control condition at all times (P 0.001). Optimized cut-off values at 90 min post-ingestion yielded 95% accuracy rates in both serum and blood. Quininium resin was well tolerated.

Conclusions: Using blood or serum, the quininium resin test identifies hypochlorhydria accurately and non-invasively. This test may be useful in screening for gastric atrophy and in studies investigating hypochlorhydria.