Context: The aging of the baby boom generation, the extension of life, and progressive increases in disability-free life expectancy have generated a dramatic demographic transition in the United States. Official government forecasts may, however, have inadvertently underestimated life expectancy, which would have major policy implications, since small differences in forecasts of life expectancy produce very large differences in the number of people surviving to an older age. This article presents a new set of population and life expectancy forecasts for the United States, focusing on transitions that will take place by midcentury.

Methods: Forecasts were made with a cohort-components methodology, based on the premise that the risk of death will be influenced in the coming decades by accelerated advances in biomedical technology that either delay the onset and age progression of major fatal diseases or that slow the aging process itself.

Findings: Results indicate that the current forecasts of the U.S. Social Security Administration and U.S. Census Bureau may underestimate the rise in life expectancy at birth for men and women combined, by 2050, from 3.1 to 7.9 years.

Conclusions: The cumulative outlays for Medicare and Social Security could be higher by $3.2 to $8.3 trillion relative to current government forecasts. This article discusses the implications of these results regarding the benefits and costs of an aging society and the prospect that health disparities could attenuate some of these changes.

Sociologists and others studying aging in the U.S. uncover myths that dominate public perceptions of the elderly. Educating our society about the facts on aging is a necessary step to ensure that future policies will promote a more equitable and productive America for all ages.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether functional status before dialysis is maintained after the initiation of this therapy in elderly patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). METHODS: Using a national registry of patients undergoing dialysis, which was linked to a national registry of nursing home residents, we identified all 3702 nursing home residents in the United States who were starting treatment with dialysis between June 1998 and October 2000 and for whom at least one measurement of functional status was available before the initiation of dialysis. Functional status was measured by assessing the degree of dependence in seven activities of daily living (on the Minimum Data Set-Activities of Daily Living [MDS-ADL] scale of 0 to 28 points, with higher scores indicating greater functional difficulty). RESULTS: The median MDS-ADL score increased from 12 during the 3 months before the initiation of dialysis to 16 during the 3 months after the initiation of dialysis. Three months after the initiation of dialysis, functional status had been maintained in 39% of nursing home residents, but by 12 months after the initiation of dialysis, 58% had died and predialysis functional status had been maintained in only 13%. In a random-effects model, the initiation of dialysis was associated with a sharp decline in functional status, indicated by an increase of 2.8 points in the MDS-ADL score (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5 to 3.0); this decline was independent of age, sex, race, and functional-status trajectory before the initiation of dialysis. The decline in functional status associated with the initiation of dialysis remained substantial (1.7 points; 95% CI, 1.4 to 2.1), even after adjustment for the presence or absence of an accelerated functional decline during the 3-month period before the initiation of dialysis. CONCLUSIONS: Among nursing home residents with ESRD, the initiation of dialysis is associated with a substantial and sustained decline in functional status. 2009 Massachusetts Medical Society

Context: Fetuin-A inhibits the insulin receptor in vitro. Higher serum fetuin-A concentrations are associated with type 2 diabetes longitudinally and greater adiposity in cross-sectional analyses. Whether higher fetuin-A concentrations are associated with accumulation of adiposity over time is unknown.

Objective: To determine the association of fetuin-A levels with changes in body composition over 5 yr.

Study Design: Observational cohort study nested in the Health Aging and Body Composition Study.

Predictor: Serum fetuin-A levels.

Outcomes: Visceral adipose tissue (VAT), abdominal sc adipose tissue, and thigh muscle area by computed tomography, and waist circumference and body mass index were measured at baseline and again after 5 yr. Percent change and extreme change (>1.5 SDs) in each measure were calculated.

Results: Over 5 yr, subjects lost body mass in each measure, including 6% decline in VAT. Yet each SD (0.42 g/liter) higher fetuin-A concentration was associated with a 5.5% increase in VAT over 5 yr (95% confidence interval 1.9-9.2%; P = 0.003) in models adjusted for age, sex, race, clinical site, diabetes, physical activity, triglycerides, kidney function, and the baseline VAT score. Similarly, higher fetuin-A concentrations were associated with extreme VAT gain (relative risk 1.70, 95% confidence interval 1.12-2.60, P = 0.01). Fetuin-A concentrations were not statistically significant associated with change in any other measures of body composition (P > 0.20).

Conclusions: Higher fetuin-A concentrations are associated with the accumulation of VAT in well-functioning, community-living older persons. The mechanisms linking fetuin-A, VAT, and insulin resistance remain to be determined.

Background and objectives. Rates of dialysis withdrawal are higher among the elderly and lower among Blacks, yet it is unknown whether preferences for withdrawal and engagement in advance care planning also vary by age and race or ethnicity.

Design, setting, participants and methods. We recruited 61 participants from two dialysis clinics to complete questionnaires regarding dialysis withdrawal preferences in five different health states. Engagement in advance care planning (end-of-life discussions), completion of advance directives and ‘do not resuscitate' or ‘do not intubate' (DNR/DNI) orders were ascertained by a questionnaire and from dialysis unit records.

Results. The mean age was 62 ± 15 years; 38% were Black, 11% were Latino, 34% were White and 16% of participants were Asian. Blacks were less likely to prefer dialysis withdrawal as compared with Whites (odds ratio 0.16, 95% confidence interval 0.03-0.88) and other race/ethnicity groups, and this difference was not explained by age, education, comorbidity and other confounders. In contrast, older age was not associated with preferences for withdrawal. Rates of engagement in end-of-life discussions were higher than for documentation of advance care planning for all age and most race/ethnicity groups. Although younger participants and minorities were generally less likely to document treatment preferences as compared with older patients and Whites, they were not less likely to engage in end-of-life discussions.

Conclusions. Preferences for withdrawal vary by race/ ethnicity, whereas the pattern of engagement in advance care planning varies by age and race/ethnicity. Knowledge of these differences may be useful for improving communication about end-of-life preferences and in implementing effective advance care planning strategies among diverse haemodialysis patients.

BACKGROUND: Previous research has provided evidence that socioeconomic status has an impact on invasive treatments use after acute myocardial infarction. In this paper, we compare the socioeconomic inequality in the use of high-technology diagnosis and treatment after acute myocardial infarction between the US, Quebec and Belgium paying special attention to financial incentives and regulations as explanatory factors.

METHODS: We examined hospital-discharge abstracts for all patients older than 65 who were admitted to hospitals during the 1993-1998 period in the US, Quebec and Belgium with a primary diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. Patients' income data were imputed from the median incomes of their residential area. For each country, we compared the risk-adjusted probability of undergoing each procedure between socioeconomic categories measured by the patient's area median income.

RESULTS: Our findings indicate that income-related inequality exists in the use of high-technology treatment and diagnosis techniques that is not justified by differences in patients' health characteristics. Those inequalities are largely explained, in the US and Quebec, by inequalities in distances to hospitals with on-site cardiac facilities. However, in both Belgium and the US, inequalities persist among patients admitted to hospitals with on-site cardiac facilities, rejecting the hospital location effect as the single explanation for inequalities. Meanwhile, inequality levels diverge across countries (higher in the US and in Belgium, extremely low in Quebec).

CONCLUSIONS: The findings support the hypothesis that income-related inequality in treatment for AMI exists and is likely to be affected by a country's system of health care.

Affective forecasting, experienced affect, and recalled affect were compared in younger and older adults during a task in which participants worked to win and avoid losing small monetary sums. Dynamic changes in affect were measured along valence and arousal dimensions, with probes during both anticipatory and consummatory task phases. Older and younger adults displayed distinct patterns of affect dynamics. Younger adults reported increased negative arousal during loss anticipation and positive arousal during gain anticipation. In contrast, older adults reported increased positive arousal during gain anticipation but showed no increase in negative arousal on trials involving loss anticipation. Additionally, younger adults reported large increases in valence after avoiding an anticipated loss, but older adults did not. Younger, but not older, adults exhibited forecasting errors on the arousal dimension, underestimating increases in arousal during anticipation of gains and losses and overestimating increases in arousal in response to gain outcomes. Overall, the findings are consistent with a growing literature suggesting that older people experience less negative emotion than their younger counterparts and further suggest that they may better predict dynamic changes in affect.

Although HIV infection is more prevalent in people younger than age 45 years, a substantial number of infections occur in older persons. Recent guidelines recommend HIV screening in patients age 13 to 64 years. The cost-effectiveness of HIV screening in patients age 55 to 75 years is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To examine the costs and benefits of HIV screening in patients age 55 to 75 years. DESIGN: Markov model. DATA SOURCES: Derived from the literature. TARGET POPULATION: Patients age 55 to 75 years with unknown HIV status. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Societal. INTERVENTION: HIV screening program for patients age 55 to 75 years compared with current practice. OUTCOME MEASURES: Life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: For a 65-year-old patient, HIV screening using traditional counseling costs $55,440 per QALY compared with current practice when the prevalence of HIV was 0.5% and the patient did not have a sexual partner at risk. In sexually active patients, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $30,020 per QALY. At a prevalence of 0.1%, HIV screening cost less than $60,000 per QALY for patients younger than age 75 years with a partner at risk if less costly streamlined counseling is used. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Cost-effectiveness of HIV screening depended on HIV prevalence, age of the patient, counseling costs, and whether the patient was sexually active. Sensitivity analyses with other variables did not change the results substantially. LIMITATIONS: The effects of age on the toxicity and efficacy of highly active antiretroviral therapy and death from AIDS were uncertain. Sensitivity analyses exploring these variables did not qualitatively affect the results. CONCLUSION: If the tested population has an HIV prevalence of 0.1% or greater, HIV screening in persons from age 55 to 75 years reaches conventional levels of cost-effectiveness when counseling is streamlined and if the screened patient has a partner at risk. Screening patients with advanced age for HIV is economically attractive in many circumstances.