Abstract

Computed tomographic (CT) angiography is an imaging test that is safer and less expensive than an older test in diagnosing narrowing of the carotid arteries—the most common cause of stroke in US adults. Our examination of Medicare data between 2001 and 2005 found that about 20 percent of the time this test was used, it substituted for the older test. The majority of new use, however, constituted “incremental” use, in cases where patients previously would not have received any test. We found no evidence that the growth in CT angiography led to more patients’ being treated for carotid artery disease. The value of the test as a substitute for the older procedure may be enough to still justify expanding use. Tracking the uses of emerging technologies to encourage efficient use is essential, but it can be challenging in cases where new tools have multiple uses and information is incomplete.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Although recent guidelines call for expanded routine screening for HIV, resources for antiretroviral therapy (ART) are limited, and all eligible persons are not currently receiving treatment.

OBJECTIVE:

To evaluate the effects on the U.S. HIV epidemic of expanded ART, HIV screening, or interventions to reduce risk behavior.

DESIGN:

Dynamic mathematical model of HIV transmission and disease progression and cost-effectiveness analysis.

DATA SOURCES:

Published literature.

TARGET POPULATION:

High-risk (injection drug users and men who have sex with men) and low-risk persons aged 15 to 64 years in the United States.

TIME HORIZON:

Twenty years and lifetime (costs and quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]).

PERSPECTIVE:

Societal.

INTERVENTION:

Expanded HIV screening and counseling, treatment with ART, or both.

OUTCOME MEASURES:

New HIV infections, discounted costs and QALYs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS:

One-time HIV screening of low-risk persons coupled with annual screening of high-risk persons could prevent 6.7% of a projected 1.23 million new infections and cost $22,382 per QALY gained, assuming a 20% reduction in sexual activity after screening. Expanding ART utilization to 75% of eligible persons prevents 10.3% of infections and costs $20,300 per QALY gained. A combination strategy prevents 17.3% of infections and costs $21,580 per QALY gained.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS:

With no reduction in sexual activity, expanded screening prevents 3.7% of infections. Earlier ART initiation when a CD4 count is greater than 0.350 × 10(9) cells/L prevents 20% to 28% of infections. Additional efforts to halve high-risk behavior could reduce infections by 65%.

LIMITATION:

The model of disease progression and treatment was simplified, and acute HIV screening was excluded.

CONCLUSION:

Expanding HIV screening and treatment simultaneously offers the greatest health benefit and is cost-effective. However, even substantial expansion of HIV screening and treatment programs is not sufficient to markedly reduce the U.S. HIV epidemic without substantial reductions in risk behavior.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE:

National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health, and Department of Veterans Affairs.

Abstract

Liver disease and liver cancer associated with childhood-acquired chronic hepatitis B are leading causes of death among adults in China. Despite expanded newborn hepatitis B vaccination programs, approximately 20% of children under age 5 years and 40% of children aged 5 to 19 years remain unprotected from hepatitis B. Although immunizing them will be beneficial, no studies have examined the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis B catch-up vaccination in an endemic country like China. We examined the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical nationwide free hepatitis B catch-up vaccination program in China for unvaccinated children and adolescents aged 1 to 19 years. We used a Markov model for disease progression and infections. Cost variables were based on data published by the Chinese Ministry of Health, peer-reviewed Chinese and English publications, and the GAVI Alliance. We measured costs (2008 U.S. dollars and Chinese renminbi), quality-adjusted life years, and incremental cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective. Our results show that hepatitis B catch-up vaccination for children and adolescents in China is cost-saving across a range of parameters, even for adolescents aged 15 to 19 years old. We estimate that if all 150 million susceptible children under 19 were vaccinated, more than 8 million infections and 65,000 deaths due to hepatitis B would be prevented. CONCLUSION: The adoption of a nationwide free catch-up hepatitis B vaccination program for unvaccinated children and adolescents in China, in addition to ongoing efforts to improve birth dose and newborn vaccination coverage, will be cost-saving and can generate significant population-wide health benefits. The success of such a program in China could serve as a model for other endemic countries.

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) has the potential to slow health care spending growth by focusing resources on health interventions that provide the most value. In this article, we discuss issues surrounding CER and its implementation and apply these methods to a salient clinical example: treatment of prostate cancer. Physicians have several options for treating patients recently diagnosed with localized disease, including removal of the prostate (radical prostatectomy), treatment with radioactive seeds (brachytherapy), radiation therapy (IMRT), or-if none of these are pursued- active surveillance. Using a commercial health insurance claims database and after adjustment for comorbid conditions, we estimate that the additional cost of treatment with radical prostatectomy is $7,300, while other alternatives are more expensive-$19,000 for brachytherapy and $46,900 for IMRT. However, a review of the clinical literature uncovers no evidence that justifi es the use of these more expensive approaches. These results imply that if patient management strategies were shifted to those supported by CER-based criteria, an estimated $1.7 to $3.0 billion (2009 present value) could be saved each year.

Liver disease and liver cancer associated with childhood-acquired chronic hepatitis B are
leading causes of death among adults in China. Despite expanded newborn hepatitis B
vaccination programs, approximately 20% of children under age 5 years and 40% of children aged 5 to 19 years remain unprotected from hepatitis B. Although immunizing them will be beneficial, no studies have examined the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis B catch-up vaccination in an endemic country like China. We examined the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical nationwide free hepatitis B catch-up vaccination program in China for unvaccinated children and adolescents aged 1 to 19 years. We used a Markov model for disease progression and infections. Cost variables were based on data published by the Chinese Ministry of Health, peer-reviewed Chinese and English publications, and the GAVI Alliance.

We measured costs (2008 U.S. dollars and Chinese renminbi), quality-adjusted life years,and incremental cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective. Our results show that hepatitis B catch-up vaccination for children and adolescents in China is cost-saving across a range of parameters, even for adolescents aged 15 to 19 years old. We estimate that if all 150 million susceptible children under 19 were vaccinated, more than 8 million infections and 65,000 deaths due to hepatitis B would be prevented. Conclusion: The adoption of a nationwide free catch-up hepatitis B vaccination program for unvaccinated children and adolescents in China, in addition to ongoing efforts to improve birth dose and newborn vaccination coverage, will be cost-saving and can generate significant population-wide health benefits. The success of such a program in China could serve as a model for other endemic countries.

Chronic viral diseases such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) afflict millions of people worldwide. A key public health challenge in managing such diseases is identifying infected, asymptomatic individuals so that they can receive antiviral treatment. Such treatment can benefit both the treated individual (by improving quality and length of life) and the population as a whole (through reduced transmission). We develop a compartmental model of a chronic, treatable infectious disease and use it to evaluate the cost and effectiveness of different levels of screening and contact tracing.

We show that:

1. the optimal strategy is to get infected individuals into treatment at the maximal rate until the incremental health benefits balance the incremental cost of controlling the disease;
   
2. as one reduces the disease prevalence by moving people into treatment (which decreases the chance that they will infect others), one should increase the level of contact tracing to compensate for the decreased effectiveness of screening;
   
3. as the disease becomes less prevalent, it is optimal to spend more per case identified; and
   
4. the relative mix of screening and contact tracing at any level of disease prevalence is such that the marginal efficiency of contact tracing (cost per infected person found) equals that of screening if possible (e.g., when capacity limitations are not binding).
   

We also show how to determine the costeffective equilibrium level of disease prevalence (among untreated individuals), and we develop an approximation of the path of the optimal prevalence over time. Using this, one can obtain a close approximation of the optimal solution without having to solve an optimal control problem. We apply our methods to an example of hepatitis B virus.

Background. The optimal community-level approach to control pandemic influenza is unknown. Methods. We estimated the health outcomes and costs of combinations of 4 social distancing strategies and 2 antiviral medication strategies to mitigate an influenza pandemic for a demographically typical US community. We used a social network, agent-based model to estimate strategy effectiveness and an economic model to estimate health resource use and costs. We used data from the literature to estimate clinical outcomes and health care utilization. Results. At 1% influenza mortality, moderate infectivity (R(o) of 2.1 or greater), and 60% population compliance, the preferred strategy is adult and child social distancing, school closure, and antiviral treatment and prophylaxis. This strategy reduces the prevalence of cases in the population from 35% to 10%, averts 2480 cases per 10,000 population, costs $2700 per case averted, and costs $31,300 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, compared with the same strategy without school closure. The addition of school closure to adult and child social distancing and antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, if available, is not cost-effective for viral strains with low infectivity (R(o) of 1.6 and below) and low case fatality rates (below 1%). High population compliance lowers costs to society substantially when the pandemic strain is severe (R(o) of 2.1 or greater). Conclusions. Multilayered mitigation strategies that include adult and child social distancing, use of antivirals, and school closure are cost-effective for a moderate to severe pandemic. Choice of strategy should be driven by the severity of the pandemic, as defined by the case fatality rate and infectivity.

The demands on emergency services have grown relentlessly, and the Institute of Medicine (IOM) has asserted the need for “regionalized, coordinated, and accountable emergency care systems throughout the country.” There are large gaps in the evidence base needed to fix the problem of how emergency care is organized and delivered, and science is urgently needed to define and measure success in the emerging network of emergency care. In 2010, Academic Emergency Medicine convened a consensus conference entitled “Beyond Regionalization: Integrated Networks of Emergency Care.” This article is a product of the conference breakout session on “Defining and Measuring Successful Networks”; it explores the concept of integrated emergency care delivery and prioritizes a research agenda for how to best define and measure successful networks of emergency care. The authors discuss five key areas: 1) the fundamental metrics that are needed to measure networks across time-sensitive and non–time-sensitive conditions; 2) how networks can be scalable and nimble and can be creative in terms of best practices; 3) the potential unintended consequences of networks of emergency care; 4) the development of large-scale, yet feasible, network data systems; and 5) the linkage of data systems across the disease course. These knowledge gaps must be filled to improve the quality and efficiency of emergency care and to fulfill the IOM’s vision of regionalized, coordinated, and accountable emergency care systems.