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Globalization and Health
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Chen BK
Seligman B
Farquhar JW
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
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Background

Cardiovascular diseases represent an increasing share of the global disease burden. There is concern that increased consumption of palm oil could exacerbate mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, particularly in developing countries where it represents a major nutritional source of saturated fat.

Methods

The study analyzed country-level data from 1980-1997 derived from the World Health Organization's Mortality Database, U.S. Department of Agriculture international estimates, and the World Bank (234 annual observations; 23 countries). Outcomes included mortality from IHD and stroke for adults aged 50 and older. Predictors included per-capita consumption of palm oil and cigarettes and per-capita Gross Domestic Product as well as time trends and an interaction between palm oil consumption and country economic development level. Analyses examined changes in country-level outcomes over time employing linear panel regressions with country-level fixed effects, population weighting, and robust standard errors clustered by country. Sensitivity analyses included further adjustment for other major dietary sources of saturated fat.

Results

In developing countries, for every additional kilogram of palm oil consumed per-capita annually, IHD mortality rates increased by 68 deaths per 100,000 (95% CI [21-115]), whereas, in similar settings, stroke mortality rates increased by 19 deaths per 100,000 (95% CI [-12-49]) but were not significant. For historically high-income countries, changes in IHD and stroke mortality rates from palm oil consumption were smaller (IHD: 17 deaths per 100,000 (95% CI [5.3-29]); stroke: 5.1 deaths per 100,000 (95% CI [-1.2-11.0])). Inclusion of other major saturated fat sources including beef, pork, chicken, coconut oil, milk cheese, and butter did not substantially change the differentially higher relationship between palm oil and IHD mortality in developing countries.

Conclusions

Increased palm oil consumption is related to higher IHD mortality rates in developing countries. Palm oil consumption represents a saturated fat source relevant for policies aimed at reducing cardiovascular disease burdens.

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Globalization and Health
Authors
Brian K Chen
Ben Seligman
John W Farquar
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert

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Stanford University
Encina Hall, E209
Stanford, CA 94305-6165

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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Thomas C. and Joan M. Merigan Professor
Professor of Medicine
Professor of Microbiology and Immunology
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MD

David A. Relman, M.D., is the Thomas C. and Joan M. Merigan Professor in the Departments of Medicine, and of Microbiology and Immunology at Stanford University, and Chief of Infectious Diseases at the Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System in Palo Alto, California. He is also Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) at Stanford, and served as science co-director at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford from 2013-2017. He is currently director of a new Biosecurity Initiative at FSI.

Relman was an early pioneer in the modern study of the human indigenous microbiota. Most recently, his work has focused on human microbial community assembly, and community stability and resilience in the face of disturbance. Ecological theory and predictions are tested in clinical studies with multiple approaches for characterizing the human microbiome. Previous work included the development of molecular methods for identifying novel microbial pathogens, and the subsequent identification of several historically important microbial disease agents. One of his papers was selected as “one of the 50 most important publications of the past century” by the American Society for Microbiology.

Dr. Relman received an S.B. (Biology) from MIT, M.D. from Harvard Medical School, and joined the faculty at Stanford in 1994. He served as vice-chair of the NAS Committee that reviewed the science performed as part of the FBI investigation of the 2001 Anthrax Letters, as a member of the National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity, and as President of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. He is currently a member of the Intelligence Community Studies Board and the Committee on Science, Technology and the Law, both at the National Academies of Science. He has received an NIH Pioneer Award, an NIH Transformative Research Award, and was elected a member of the National Academy of Medicine in 2011.

Stanford Health Policy Affiliate
CV
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Abstract

Although the past few decades have seen rising incomes and increased government attention to rural development, many children in rural China still lack regular access to micronutrient-rich diets. Insufficient diets and poor knowledge of nutrition among the poor result in nutritional problems, including irondeficiency anaemia, which adversely affect attention and learning of students in school. Little research has been conducted in China documenting the prevalence of nutritional problems among vulnerable populations, such as school-age children, in rural areas. The absence of programmes to combat anaemia among students might be interpreted as a sign that the Government does not recognize its severity. The goals of this paper were to measure the prevalence of anaemia among school-age children in poor regions of Qinghai and Ningxia, to identify individual-, household- and school-based factors that correlate with anaemia in this region, and to report on the correlation between the anaemic status and the physical, psychological and cognitive outcomes. The results of a cross-sectional survey are reported here. The survey involved over 4,000 fourth and fifth grade students from 76 randomly-selected elementary schools in 10 poor counties in rural Qinghai province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, located in the northwest region of China. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and standardized tests. Trained professional nurses administered haemoglobin (Hb) tests (using Hemocue finger prick kits) and measured heights and weights of children. The baseline data showed that the overall anaemia rate was 24.9%, using the World Health Organization's blood Hb cut-offs of 120 g/L for children aged 12 years and older and 115 g/L for children aged 11 years and under. Children who lived and ate at school had higher rates of anaemia, as did children whose parents worked in farms or were away from home. Children with parents who had lower levels of education were more likely to be anaemic. The anaemic status correlated with the adverse physical, cognitive and psychological outcomes among the students. Such findings are consistent with findings of other recent studies in poor, northwest areas of China and led to conclude that anaemia remains a serious health problem among children in parts of China. © International Centre For Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh.

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Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition
Authors
Luo, R.
Zhang, L.
Liu, C.
Zhao, Q.
Shi, Y.
Grant Miller
Grant Miller
Yu, E.
Sharbono, B.
Medina, A.
Scott Rozelle
Martorell, R.

Encina Commons Room 210,
615 Crothers Way,
Stanford, CA 94305-6006

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Professor, Pediatrics
Professor, Health Policy
Professor, Epidemiology & Population Health (by courtesy)
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MD, MPH

Dr. Lee Sanders is a general pediatrician and Professor of Pediatrics at the Stanford University School of Medicine, where he is Chief of the Division of General Pediatrics. He holds a joint appointment in the Center for Health Policy in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, where he is a co-director of the Center for Policy, Outcomes and Prevention (CPOP).

An author of numerous peer-reviewed articles addressing child health disparities, Dr. Sanders is a nationally recognized scholar in the fields of health literacy and child chronic-illness care.  Dr. Sanders was named a Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Generalist Physician Faculty Scholar for his leadership on the role of maternal health literacy and English-language proficiency in addressing child health disparities.  Aiming to make the US health system more navigable for the one in 4 families with limited health literacy, he has served as an advisor to the Institute of Medicine, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration, the American Academy of Pediatrics, the Academic Pediatric Association, and the American Cancer Society.  Dr. Sanders leads a multi-disciplinary CPOP research team that provides analytic guidance to national and state policies affecting children with complex chronic illness – with a focus on the special health-system requirements that arise from the unique epidemiology, care-use patterns, and health-care costs for this population.  He leads another CPOP/PCOR-based research team that applies family-centered approaches to new technologies that aim to improve care coordination for children with medical complexity.    Dr. Sanders is also principal investigator on two NIH-funded studies that address health literacy in the pediatric context: one aims to assess the efficacy of a low-literacy, early-childhood intervention designed to prevent early childhood obesity; the other aims to provide the FDA with guidance on improved labeling of pediatric liquid medication.  Research settings for this work include state and regional health departments, primary-care and subspecialty-care clinics, community-health centers, WIC offices, federally subsidized child-care centers, and family advocacy centers.

Dr. Sanders received a BA in History and Science from Harvard University, an MD from Stanford University, and a MPH from the University of California, Berkeley.  Between 2006 and 2011, Dr. Sanders served as Medical Director of Children’s Medical Services South Florida, a Florida state agency that coordinates care for more than 10,000 low-income children with special health care needs.  He was also Medical Director for Reach Out and Read Florida, a pediatric-clinic-based program that provides books and early-literacy promotion to more than 200,000 underserved children.  At the University of Miami, Dr. Sanders directed the Jay Weiss Center for Social Medicine and Health Equity, which fosters a scholarly community committed to addressing global health inequities through community-based participatory research.  At Stanford University, Dr. Sanders served as co-medical director of the Family Advocacy Program, which provides free legal assistance to help address social determinants of child health.

Fluent in Spanish, Dr. Sanders is co-director of the Complex Primary Care Clinic at Stanford Children’s Health, which provides multi-disciplinary team care for children with complex chronic conditions.  Dr. Sanders is also the father of two daughters, aged 11 and 14 years, who make sure he practices talking less and listening more.

Co-Director, Center for Policy, Outcomes & Prevention (CPOP)
Chief, Division of General Pediatrics, School of Medicine
CV
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BACKGROUND: The recent RV144 clinical trial showed that an ALVAC/AIDSVAX prime-boost  HIV vaccine regimen may confer partial immunity in recipients and reduce transmission by 31%. Trial data suggest that efficacy may initially exceed 70% but decline over the following 3.5 years. Estimating the potential health benefits associated with a one-time vaccination campaign, as well as the projected benefits of repeat booster vaccination, may inform future HIV vaccine research and licensing decisions.

METHODS: We developed a mathematical model to project the future course of the HIV epidemic in the United States under varying HIV vaccine scenarios. The model accounts for disease progression, infection transmission, antiretroviral therapy, and HIV-related morbidity and mortality. We projected HIV prevalence and incidence over time in multiple risk groups, and we estimated quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs over a 10-year time horizon. We used an exponentially declining efficacy curve fit to trial data, and we assumed subsequent vaccine boosters confer similar immunity. Variations in vaccine parameters were examined in sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS: Under existing HIV prevention and treatment efforts, an estimated 590,000 HIV infections occur over 10 years. One-time vaccination achieving 60% coverage of adults could prevent 9.8% of projected new infections over 10 years (and prevent 34% of new infections in the first year) and cost approximately $91,000/QALY gained relative to the status quo, assuming a vaccination price of $500. Targeted vaccination of high-risk groups results in net cost savings for vaccines costing less than $750. One-time vaccination of 60% of all adults coupled with three-year boosters only for men who have sex with men and injection drug users could prevent 21% of infections for $81,000/QALY gained relative to vaccination of high-risk groups only. A program attaining 90% vaccination coverage prevents 15% of new HIV cases over 10 years (and approximately50% of infections in the first year).

CONCLUSIONS: A partially effective HIV vaccine with effectiveness similar to that observed in the RV144 trial would provide large health benefits in the United States and could meet conventionally accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds. Strategies that target high-risk groups are most efficient, but broader strategies provide greater total population health benefit.

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Vaccine
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Elisa F Long
Douglas K. Owens
Douglas K. Owens
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Parenteral nutrition (PN), containing fat emulsions derived from soybean, has been implicated in the progression of PN-associated liver disease and cholestasis, particularly in infants with short bowel syndrome. Clinical use of Omegaven, a parenteral fish-oil emulsion, has been shown in recent studies to be a promising therapy to reverse liver disease and cholestasis. This review summarizes the rationale, relevant clinical investigations and future direction of Omegaven therapy for PN-dependent infants.

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J Perinatol
Authors
KT Park
KT Park
C Nespor
J Kerner Jr.
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Background Guidance is needed on best medical management for advanced HIV disease with multidrug resistance (MDR) and limited retreatment options. We assessed two novel antiretroviral (ARV) treatment approaches in this setting.

Methods and Findings We conducted a 2×2 factorial randomized open label controlled trial in patients with a CD4 count ≤300 cells/µl who had ARV treatment (ART) failure requiring retreatment, to two options (a) re-treatment with either standard (≤4 ARVs) or intensive (≥5 ARVs) ART and b) either treatment starting immediately or after a 12-week monitored ART interruption. Primary outcome was time to developing a first AIDS-defining event (ADE) or death from any cause. Analysis was by intention to treat. From 2001 to 2006, 368 patients were randomized. At baseline, mean age was 48 years, 2% were women, median CD4 count was 106/µl, mean viral load was 4.74 log10 copies/ml, and 59% had a prior AIDS diagnosis. Median follow-up was 4.0 years in 1249 person-years of observation. There were no statistically significant differences in the primary composite outcome of ADE or death between re-treatment options of standard versus intensive ART (hazard ratio 1.17; CI 0.86–1.59), or between immediate retreatment initiation versus interruption before re-treatment (hazard ratio 0.93; CI 0.68–1.30), or in the rate of non-HIV associated serious adverse events between re-treatment options.

Conclusions We did not observe clinical benefit or harm assessed by the primary outcome in this largest and longest trial exploring both ART interruption and intensification in advanced MDR HIV infection with poor retreatment options.

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PLoS ONE
Authors
Mark Holodniy
Mark Holodniy
Sheldon T. Brown
D. William Cameron
Tassos C. Kyriakides
Brian Angus
Abdel Babiker Abdel Babiker
Joel Singer
Douglas K. Owens
Douglas K. Owens
Aslam Anis
Ruth Goodall
Fleur Hudson
Mirek Piaseczny
John Russo
Martin Schechter
Lawrence Deyton
Janet Darbyshire
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Background A growing body of evidence supports the role of type 2 diabetes as an individual-level risk factor for tuberculosis (TB), though evidence from developing countries with the highest TB burdens is lacking. In developing countries, TB is most common among the poor, in whom diabetes may be less common. We assessed the relationship between individual-level risk, social determinants and population health in these settings.

Methods We performed individual-level analyses using the World Health Survey (n = 124 607; 46 countries). We estimated the relationship between TB and diabetes, adjusting for gender, age, body mass index, education, housing quality, crowding and health insurance. We also performed a longitudinal country-level analysis using data on per-capita gross domestic product and TB prevalence and incidence and diabetes prevalence for 1990–95 and 2003–04 (163 countries) to estimate the relationship between increasing diabetes prevalence and TB, identifying countries at risk for disease interactions.

Results In lower income countries, individuals with diabetes are more likely than non-diabetics to have TB [univariable odds ratio (OR): 2.39; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.84–3.10; multivariable OR: 1.81; 95% CI: 1.37–2.39]. Increases in TB prevalence and incidence over time were more likely to occur when diabetes prevalence also increased (OR: 4.7; 95% CI: 1.0–22.5; OR: 8.6; 95% CI: 1.9–40.4). Large populations, prevalent TB and projected increases in diabetes make countries like India, Peru and the Russia Federation areas of particular concern.

Conclusions Given the association between diabetes and TB and projected increases in diabetes worldwide, multi-disease health policies should be considered.

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International Journal of Epidemiology
Authors
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Christie Y Jeon
Ted Cohen
Megan B Murray
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Objective: The World Health Organization (WHO) recently changed its first-line antiretroviral treatment guidelines in resource-limited settings. The cost-effectiveness of the new guidelines is unknown.

Design: Comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis using a model of HIV disease progression and treatment.

Methods: Using a simulation of HIV disease and treatment in South Africa, we compared the life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, lifetime costs, and cost-effectiveness of five initial regimens. Four are currently recommended by the WHO: tenofovir/lamivudine/efavirenz; tenofovir/lamivudine/nevirapine; zidovudine/lamivudine/efavirenz; and zidovudine/lamivudine/nevirapine. The fifth is the most common regimen in current use: stavudine/lamivudine/nevirapine. Virologic suppression and toxicities determine regimen effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

Results: Choice of first-line regimen is associated with a difference of nearly 12 months of quality-adjusted life expectancy, from 135.2 months (tenofovir/lamivudine/efavirenz) to 123.7 months (stavudine/lamivudine/nevirapine). Stavudine/lamivudine/nevirapine is more costly and less effective than zidovudine/lamivudine/nevirapine. Initiating treatment with a regimen containing tenofovir/lamivudine/nevirapine is associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1045 per quality-adjusted life year compared with zidovudine/lamivudine/nevirapine. Using tenofovir/lamivudine/efavirenz was associated with the highest survival, fewest opportunistic diseases, lowest rate of regimen substitution, and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $5949 per quality-adjusted life year gained compared with tenofovir/lamivudine/nevirapine. Zidovudine/lamivudine/efavirenz was more costly and less effective than tenofovir/lamivudine/nevirapine. Results were sensitive to the rates of toxicities and the disutility associated with each toxicity.

Conclusion: Among the options recommended by WHO, we estimate only three should be considered under normal circumstances. Choice among those depends on available resources and willingness to pay. Stavudine/lamivudine/nevirapine is associated with the poorest quality-adjusted survival and higher costs than zidovudine/lamivudine/nevirapine.

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AIDS (Official Journal of the International AIDS Society)
Authors
Eran Bendavid
Eran Bendavid
Philip Grant
Annie Talbot
Douglas K. Owens
Douglas Owens
Andrew Zolopa
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