To relate the changing epidemiology of childhood to current patterns of pediatric practice in the United States, a critical literature review and selected analyses of national datasets, including the National Health Interview Survey, the National Hospital Discharge Survey, and National Vital Statistics System, were conducted. Trends over the past several decades suggest that the incidence of serious acute illness in children has fallen while the prevalence of chronic disease has risen. These trends have resulted in a growing concentration of serious childhood morbidity and mortality into chronic disorders. Current pediatric practice structures appear to be poorly suited to meet the growing demands of chronic disease in children and likely will require major reform in organization, financing, and training.

BACKGROUND: To provide quantitative insight into current U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention, we developed a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer, explicitly incorporating uncertainty about the natural history of disease. METHODS: We developed a stochastic microsimulation of cervical cancer that distinguishes different HPV types by their incidence, clearance, persistence, and progression. Input parameter sets were sampled randomly from uniform distributions, and simulations undertaken with each set. Through systematic reviews and formal data synthesis, we established multiple epidemiologic targets for model calibration, including age-specific prevalence of HPV by type, age-specific prevalence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), HPV type distribution within CIN and cancer, and age-specific cancer incidence. For each set of sampled input parameters, likelihood-based goodness-of-fit (GOF) scores were computed based on comparisons between model-predicted outcomes and calibration targets. Using 50 randomly resampled, good-fitting parameter sets, we assessed the external consistency and face validity of the model, comparing predicted screening outcomes to independent data. To illustrate the advantage of this approach in reflecting parameter uncertainty, we used the 50 sets to project the distribution of health outcomes in U.S. women under different cervical cancer prevention strategies. RESULTS: Approximately 200 good-fitting parameter sets were identified from 1,000,000 simulated sets. Modeled screening outcomes were externally consistent with results from multiple independent data sources. Based on 50 good-fitting parameter sets, the expected reductions in lifetime risk of cancer with annual or biennial screening were 76% (range across 50 sets: 69-82%) and 69% (60-77%), respectively. The reduction from vaccination alone was 75%, although it ranged from 60% to 88%, reflecting considerable parameter uncertainty about the natural history of type-specific HPV infection. The uncertainty surrounding the model-predicted reduction in cervical cancer incidence narrowed substantially when vaccination was combined with every-5-year screening, with a mean reduction of 89% and range of 83% to 95%. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate an approach to parameterization, calibration and performance evaluation for a U.S. cervical cancer microsimulation model intended to provide qualitative and quantitative inputs into decisions that must be taken before long-term data on vaccination outcomes become available. This approach allows for a rigorous and comprehensive description of policy-relevant uncertainty about health outcomes under alternative cancer prevention strategies. The model provides a tool that can accommodate new information, and can be modified as needed, to iteratively assess the expected benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different policies in the U.S.

Many critical questions in medicine require the analysis of complex multivariate data, often from large data sets describing numerous variables for numerous subjects. In this paper, we describe CoPlot, a tool for visualizing multivariate data in medicine. CoPlot is an adaptation of multidimensional scaling (MDS) that addresses several key limitations of MDS, namely that MDS maps do not allow for visualization of both observations and variables simultaneously and that the axes on an MDS map have no inherent meaning. By addressing these issues, CoPlot facilitates rich interpretation of multivariate data. We present an example using CoPlot on a recently published data set from a systematic review describing clinical features and disease progression of children with anthrax and provide recommendations for the use of CoPlot for evaluating and interpreting other healthcare data sets.

This issue of CHP/PCOR's Quarterly Update covers news from the Summer 2007 quarter and includes articles about:

• two reports on care coordination -- one on care coordination strategies in general, and a second on care coordination specifically for children with special health care needs;

• an international health section that features work done by undergraduates this summer (with mentorship and guidance from CHP/PCOR staff) on the GOBI initiative, as well as a summary of a the new Children's Project established by core faculty member Paul H. Wise;
• two Research in Brief selections -- one highlights the impact of pay for performance reimbursement structures on end-stage renal disease care, and the second examines the link between obesity and wages in Europe;
• a Medicare restructuring and refinancing piece that highlights the work of director and core faculty member Alan M. Garber, core faculty member Victor R. Fuchs, and colleagues;
• a piece on the effect of chronic illnesses such as obesity on disability trends in the near-elderly population;
• a Staff Spotlight feature on two CHP/PCOR research assistants.

Note to the reader:

The newsletter is fully-navigational. Any text that is surrounded by a dashed box is clickable and will allow the reader to navigate the newsletter more efficiently. The end of each article contains a special symbol (§) that, when clicked, will take the reader back to the table of contents. Please feel free to contact Amber Hsiao with any questions.

Background: The comparative effectiveness of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for patients in whom both procedures are feasible remains poorly understood.

Purpose: To compare the effectiveness of PCI and CABG in patients for whom coronary revascularization is clinically indicated.

Data Sources: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases (1966-2006); conference proceedings; and bibliographies of retrieved articles.

Study Selection: Randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) reported in any language that compared clinical outcomes of PCI with those of CABG, and selected observational studies.

Data Extraction: Information was extracted on study design, sample characteristics, interventions, and clinical outcomes.

Data Synthesis: We identified 23 RCTs in which 5019 patients were randomly assigned to PCI and 4944 patients were randomly assigned to CABG. The difference in survival after PCI or CABG was less than 1% over 10 years of follow-up. Survival did not differ between PCI and CABG for patients with diabetes in the 6 trials that reported on this subgroup. Procedural strokes were more common after CABG than after PCI (1.2% vs. 0.6%; risk difference, 0.6%; P = 0.002). Angina relief was greater after CABG than after PCI, with risk differences ranging from 5% to 8% at 1 to 5 years (P 0.001). The absolute rates of angina relief at 5 years were 79% after PCI and 84% after CABG. Repeated revascularization was more common after PCI than after CABG (risk difference, 24% at 1 year and 33% at 5 years; P 0.001); the absolute rates at 5 years were 46.1% after balloon angioplasty, 40.1% after PCI with stents, and 9.8% after CABG. In the observational studies, the CABG-PCI hazard ratio for death favored PCI among patients with the least severe disease and CABG among those with the most severe disease.

Limitations: The RCTs were conducted in leading centers in selected patients. The authors could not assess whether comparative outcomes vary according to clinical factors, such as extent of coronary disease, ejection fraction, or previous procedures. Only 1 small trial used drug-eluting stents.

Conclusion: Compared with PCI, CABG was more effective in relieving angina and led to fewer repeated revascularizations but had a higher risk for procedural stroke. Survival to 10 years was similar for both procedures.

We also explored the association between the number of antihypertensives and systolic, diastolic, and pulse pressure. After 15 months, 41% of participants met blood pressure targets. CKD was not associated with control (adjusted odds ratio: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.93 to 1.15). However, CKD was associated with higher odds of use of ≥3 medications among nondiabetic subjects (odds ratio: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.25 to 1.71) and diabetic subjects (odds ratio: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.66). A significant interaction was observed between CKD and the number of antihypertensives as determinants of diastolic and pulse pressures. Among non-CKD participants, a greater number of antihypertensives (0 compared with 4) was associated with wider pulse pressure ({Delta}5.2 mm Hg; P<0.001), mainly because of higher systolic pressures ({Delta}3.6 mm Hg; P=0.001).

Among participants with CKD, although greater numbers of antihypertensives were associated with even wider pulse pressures ({Delta}8.3 mm Hg; P<0.001), this was primarily because of lower diastolic pressures ({Delta}4.8 mm Hg; P<0.01). Among participants with CKD, greater use of antihypertensives was associated with lower diastolic pressures. Given recent evidence suggesting adverse effects of diastolic hypotension, these results suggest potential risks in patients with CKD from aggressive attempts to control systolic blood pressure.

Objective: Findings from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) failed to confirm previous expectations about the net benefits of menopausal hormone therapy and have resulted in reduced use of these medications. The aim of this study was to evaluate women's awareness and knowledge concerning the risks and benefits of hormone therapy.

Design: A nationally representative survey was completed for a sample of 781 women (ages 40-60 y, mean 49 y) drawn from the Knowledge Networks Internet panel 24 months after publication of the first WHI findings, in June 2004. Responses were weighted to reflect the demographics of the US population. The main outcome measures were awareness of WHI and knowledge of its findings. An aggregate score was constructed to assess women's knowledge of the impact of hormone therapy on seven key disease outcomes. Logistic regression determined the independent predictors of (1) WHI awareness and (2) a positive aggregate knowledge score, reflecting appropriate responses about risks and benefits.

Results: Only 29% of women were aware of the WHI results. Only 40% of women had a positive aggregate knowledge score. Aside from awareness of WHI and independent of other factors, knowledge scores were lower for African American women (odds ratio, 0.4; 95% CI: 0.2-0.6) and among women with less education (odds ratio, 0.5; 95% CI: 0.3-0.9). Knowledge was greatest for breast cancer and osteoporosis outcomes and most limited for colorectal cancer and memory loss.

Conclusion: Surveyed women had limited awareness and knowledge of the WHI results, suggesting limited diffusion. Targeting younger, less educated, and African American women is warranted.

The major features of ESRD management in France include the predominance of hemodialysis and the resulting competition for dialysis stations. In 2003, the prevalence of ESRD in France was 0.087%. Of the 52,000 ESRD patients, 30,882 were receiving dialysis and 21,233 had functioning renal transplants. The annual expenditure per ESRD patient in 2003 was estimated at euro40,975. Autodialysis, at euro49,133 per patient per year, was much less expensive than dialyzing in-center at either a public or private facility (euro111,006 and euro75,125, respectively). Transplant activity in France has rapidly increased in recent years, reaching 22 donors per million population in 2005.

Objective: To systematically review all published case reports of children with anthrax to evaluate the predictors of disease progression and mortality.

Data Sources: Fourteen selected journal indexes (1900-1966), MEDLINE (1966-2005), and the bibliographies of all retrieved articles.

Study Selection: Case reports (any language) of anthrax in persons younger than 18 years published between January 1, 1900, and December 31, 2005. Main Exposures Cases with symptoms and culture or Gram stain or autopsy evidence of anthrax infection.

Main Outcome Measures: Disease progression, treatment responses, and mortality.

Results: Of 2499 potentially relevant articles, 73 case reports of pediatric anthrax (5 inhalational cases, 22 gastrointestinal cases, 37 cutaneous cases, 6 cases of primary meningoencephalitis, and 3 atypical cases) met the inclusion criteria. Only 10% of the patients were younger than 2 years, and 24% were girls. Of the few children with inhalational anthrax, none had nonheadache neurologic symptoms, a key finding that distinguishes adult inhalational anthrax from more common illnesses, such as influenza. Overall, observed mortality was 60% (3 of 5) for inhalational anthrax, 65% (13 of 20) for gastrointestinal anthrax, 14% (5 of 37) for cutaneous anthrax, and 100% (6 of 6) for primary meningoencephalitis. Nineteen of the 30 children (63%) who received penicillin-based antibiotics survived, and 9 of the 11 children (82%) who received anthrax antiserum survived.

Conclusions: The clinical presentation of children with anthrax is varied. The mortality rate is high in children with inhalational anthrax, gastrointestinal anthrax, and anthrax meningoencephalitis. Rapid diagnosis and effective treatment of anthrax in children requires recognition of the broad spectrum of clinical presentations of pediatric anthrax.

Many health care providers and policy makers believe that health care financing systems fail to reward high-quality care. In recent years, federal and private payers have begun to promote pay for performance, or value-based purchasing, initiatives to raise the quality of care. This report describes conceptual issues in the design and implementation of pay for performance for chronic kidney disease and ESRD care. It also considers the implications of recent ESRD payment policy changes on the broader goals of pay for performance. Congressionally mandated bundle payment demonstration for dialysis, newly implemented case-mix adjustment of the composite rate, and G codes for the monthly capitation payment are important opportunities to understand facility and provider behavior with particular attention to patient selection and treatment practices. Well-designed payment systems will reward quality care for patients while maintaining appropriate accountability and fairness for health care providers.