Obesity
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Nearly 100 health economists from across the United States signed a pledge urging U.S. presidential candidates to make chronic disease a policy priority. Karen Eggleston, a scholar of comparative healthcare systems and director of Stanford’s Asia Health Policy Program, is one of the signatories. 

The pledge calls upon the candidates to reset the national healthcare agenda to better address chronic disease, which causes seven out of 10 deaths in America and affects the economy through lost productivity and disability.

Read the pledge below.

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Urbanization and obesity-related chronic diseases are cited as threats to the future health of India's older citizens. With 50% of deaths in adult Indians currently due to chronic diseases, the relationship of urbanization and migration trends to obesity patterns have important population health implications for older Indians. The researchers constructed and calibrated a set of 21 microsimulation models of weight and height of Indian adults. The models separately represented current urban and rural populations of India's major states and were further stratified by sex.

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Erin Digitale
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Instilling healthy eating and exercise habits in children may help prevent obesity later in life. But which kids most need such obesity-prevention efforts? A recent study by Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert and colleagues at Stanford's School of Medicine showed that this question is harder to answer than it seems. The study, published earlier this year in Medical Decision Making, found that targeting obesity prevention to small children who are overweight might not be effective. That's because a higher-than-normal weight at age 5 provides an accurate predictor of adult obesity only 50 percent of the time.

Goldhaber-Fiebert, an assistant professor of medicine and core faculty member of Stanford Health Policy, discusses the problem.

What does your paper tell us about the recent focus on childhood and adolescent obesity measurements?

Our study has two take-home messages. First, while childhood obesity is an important problem, solving childhood obesity alone will not solve future adult obesity problems. Second, addressing future adult obesity will require broader societal measures — not simply interventions focused on obese children.

It used to be that no one worried much if a small child was chubby; the doctor might say, "It's baby fat, he'll grow out of it." How has that changed?

In fact, our data show that many children still do "grow out of it." But our findings suggest that it is difficult to predict whether this will happen for a specific child. Consequently, efforts to help obese children must be connected to broader efforts to create healthy diets and habits for all children.

Childhood obesity is concerning both because it presents increased health risks for individuals while they are children and also because of the fear that it will translate into serious adult obesity-related health issues. Our analyses show that targeting children who are already obese is unlikely to be sufficient in addressing broader public health challenges of obesity in later childhood, adolescence and adulthood.

Are there other more promising screening criteria for chronic adult obesity instead of using a child's weight?

It really depends on the purpose of screening. Researchers have identified a variety of characteristics to predict a child's future obesity status — for example, easily observed measures like the weight of a child's parent as well as more complex measures such as their size at birth and the rapidity with which they subsequently grew and gained weight.

The challenge is to have a measure that both does not miss a substantial fraction of those who become obese later on and also does not falsely predict obesity for a large number of those who do not become obese as adults. The trade-off between these two types of errors depends on the seriousness of health implications of obesity and the costs of treating health conditions once they arise, as well as the health and economic costs of delivering preventive interventions to people who are identified as being at risk of becoming obese regardless of whether they become obese in the future.

What are some of the best potential approaches for reducing childhood obesity if the entire population is being targeted?

Given that many health-related habits are developed in childhood, efforts to create healthy eating and exercise habits in children would seem to be beneficial. But for most potential interventions, we lack evidence of their widespread effectiveness over a long period of time. Do reductions in obesity persist from childhood into adulthood? Do they lead to measurable improvements in health outcomes? We do not have answers to these key questions.

Food, beverage or sugar taxes and other manipulations to food prices or availability may be effective, but may also have unintended harms and certainly come at the cost of curtailing personal choice. Re-engineering the built environment or nudging people with various behavioral/economic mechanisms have garnered attention though, again, widely generalizable evidence on them is lacking. The problem deserves continued creativity and ongoing evaluation and testing.

Your paper focuses on which obese children will become obese adults, yet we are seeing a growing number of children experiencing type-2 diabetes and other negative health consequences of being overweight before they're even out of their teen years. Is adult obesity the best endpoint to focus on?

Obesity-related conditions of childhood clearly should not be ignored. What we are concerned about is the sense that people were conflating good care for children to deal with their shorter-term health needs (i.e., childhood obesity management to deal with childhood health issues) and the belief that such an approach might largely solve the broader adult obesity issues. Addressing childhood obesity is still important even if it does not fix adult obesity and its deleterious health consequences.

Erin Digitale is the pediatrics writer for Stanford School of Medicine's Office of Communication and Public Affairs.

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Background: High childhood obesity prevalence has raised concerns about future adult health, generating calls for obesity screening of young children. 

Objective: To estimate how well childhood obesity predicts adult obesity and to forecast obesity-related health of future US adults. 

Design: Longitudinal statistical analyses; microsimulations combining multiple data sets. 

Data Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, Population Study of Income Dynamics, and National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Surveys.

Methods: The authors estimated test characteristics and predictive values of childhood body mass index to identify 2-, 5-, 10-, and 15 year-olds who will become obese adults. The authors constructed models relating childhood body mass index to obesity-related diseases through middle age stratified by sex and race.

Results: Twelve percent of 18-year-olds were obese. While screening at age 5 would miss 50% of those who become obese adults, screening at age 15 would miss 9%. The predictive value of obesity screening below age 10 was low even when maternal obesity was included as a predictor. Obesity at age 5 was a substantially worse predictor of health in middle age than was obesity at age 15. For example, the relative risk of developing diabetes as adults for obese white male 15-year-olds was 4.5 versus otherwise similar nonobese 15-year-olds. For obese 5-year-olds, the relative risk was 1.6. 

Limitation: Main results do not include Hispanics due to sample size. Past relationships between childhood and adult obesity and health may change in the future. 

Conclusion: Early childhood obesity assessment adds limited information to later childhood assessment. Targeted later childhood approaches or universal strategies to prevent unhealthy weight gain should be considered.

 

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Publication Type
Journal Articles
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Medical Decision Making
Authors
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Rachel Rubinfeld
Jay Bhattacharya
Jay Bhattacharya
Thomas N. Robinson
Thomas N. Robinson
Paul H. Wise
Paul H. Wise
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0272989X12447240
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To address growing concerns over childhood obesity, the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recently recommended that children undergo obesity screening beginning at age 6. An Expert Committee recommends starting at age 2. Analysis is needed to assess these recommendations and investigate whether there are better alternatives. We model the age- and sex-specific population-wide distribution of BMI through age 18 using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) data. The impact of treatment on BMI is estimated using the targeted systematic review performed to aid the USPSTF. The prevalence of hypertension and diabetes at age 40 are estimated from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). We fix the screening interval at 2 years, and derive the age- and sex-dependent BMI thresholds that minimize adult disease prevalence, subject to referring a specified percentage of children for treatment yearly. We compare this optimal biennial policy to biennial versions of the USPSTF and Expert Committee recommendations. Compared to the USPSTF recommendation, the optimal policy reduces adult disease prevalence by 3% in relative terms (the absolute reductions are <1%) at the same treatment referral rate, or achieves the same disease prevalence at a 28% reduction in treatment referral rate. If compared to the Expert Committee recommendation, the reductions change to 6 and 40%, respectively. The optimal policy treats mostly 16-year olds and few children under age 14. Our results suggest that adult disease is minimized by focusing childhood obesity screening and treatment on older adolescents.

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Obesity
Authors
Wein, L.M
Yang, Y.
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
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Abstract

Morbid obesity is associated with excessive daytime sleepiness and reduced health-related quality of life. We prospectively evaluated the pre- and postoperative responses of bariatric surgery recipients with the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) and the Short Form-12. Participants (n = 223; 79% women) with a mean body mass index (BMI) and ESS of 44.8 ± 7.9 kg/m(2) and 7.9 ± 4.5, respectively, received a vertical gastrectomy (76%) or Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (12%). Preoperatively, 30% of patients complained of excessive daytime sleepiness (ESS > 10). Patients with preoperative excessive daytime sleepiness were more obese (p = 0.002), had higher fasting glucose levels (p = 0.02), more likely to have a diagnosis of sleep-disordered breathing (p < 0.001), report snoring (p < 0.001), and had lower health-related quality of life measures particularly physical function (p < 0.001), depression (p = 0.006), and sexual satisfaction (p = 0.04) than non-sleepy patients. At 12-months postoperatively, most patients experienced a significant reduction in BMI (28.6 ± 5.5 kg/m(2), p < 0.001) and excessive daytime sleepiness (mean ESS 5.3 ± 3.3, p < 0.001). Patients with a clinically relevant improvement in the ESS at 12-months post-operatively had greater improvements in physical function (p = 0.009) and snoring (p = 0.010) and were more likely still using positive airway pressure therapy (p = 0.032) than patients without a clinically relevant improvement. Statistically and clinically significant improvements in all health-related quality of life measures were noted at 24 months. Bariatric surgery is associated with dramatic weight loss and improvements in physical functioning and daytime sleepiness.

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Journal Articles
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Obesity Surgery
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Jon-Erik Holty
Parimi N
Ballesteros M
Blackwell T
Cirangle PT
Jossart GH
Kimbrough ND
Rose JM
Stone K
Bravata DM

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Professor, Pediatrics
Professor, Health Policy
Professor, Epidemiology & Population Health (by courtesy)
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MD, MPH

Dr. Lee Sanders is a general pediatrician and Professor of Pediatrics at the Stanford University School of Medicine, where he is Chief of the Division of General Pediatrics. He holds a joint appointment in the Center for Health Policy in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, where he is a co-director of the Center for Policy, Outcomes and Prevention (CPOP).

An author of numerous peer-reviewed articles addressing child health disparities, Dr. Sanders is a nationally recognized scholar in the fields of health literacy and child chronic-illness care.  Dr. Sanders was named a Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Generalist Physician Faculty Scholar for his leadership on the role of maternal health literacy and English-language proficiency in addressing child health disparities.  Aiming to make the US health system more navigable for the one in 4 families with limited health literacy, he has served as an advisor to the Institute of Medicine, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration, the American Academy of Pediatrics, the Academic Pediatric Association, and the American Cancer Society.  Dr. Sanders leads a multi-disciplinary CPOP research team that provides analytic guidance to national and state policies affecting children with complex chronic illness – with a focus on the special health-system requirements that arise from the unique epidemiology, care-use patterns, and health-care costs for this population.  He leads another CPOP/PCOR-based research team that applies family-centered approaches to new technologies that aim to improve care coordination for children with medical complexity.    Dr. Sanders is also principal investigator on two NIH-funded studies that address health literacy in the pediatric context: one aims to assess the efficacy of a low-literacy, early-childhood intervention designed to prevent early childhood obesity; the other aims to provide the FDA with guidance on improved labeling of pediatric liquid medication.  Research settings for this work include state and regional health departments, primary-care and subspecialty-care clinics, community-health centers, WIC offices, federally subsidized child-care centers, and family advocacy centers.

Dr. Sanders received a BA in History and Science from Harvard University, an MD from Stanford University, and a MPH from the University of California, Berkeley.  Between 2006 and 2011, Dr. Sanders served as Medical Director of Children’s Medical Services South Florida, a Florida state agency that coordinates care for more than 10,000 low-income children with special health care needs.  He was also Medical Director for Reach Out and Read Florida, a pediatric-clinic-based program that provides books and early-literacy promotion to more than 200,000 underserved children.  At the University of Miami, Dr. Sanders directed the Jay Weiss Center for Social Medicine and Health Equity, which fosters a scholarly community committed to addressing global health inequities through community-based participatory research.  At Stanford University, Dr. Sanders served as co-medical director of the Family Advocacy Program, which provides free legal assistance to help address social determinants of child health.

Fluent in Spanish, Dr. Sanders is co-director of the Complex Primary Care Clinic at Stanford Children’s Health, which provides multi-disciplinary team care for children with complex chronic conditions.  Dr. Sanders is also the father of two daughters, aged 11 and 14 years, who make sure he practices talking less and listening more.

Co-Director, Center for Policy, Outcomes & Prevention (CPOP)
Chief, Division of General Pediatrics, School of Medicine
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Obesity – and its related illnesses – endangers the lives of millions across the world. While healthier, more physically active lifestyles can mitigate this, the question remains of how policymakers can get people to switch from being couch potatoes to keen runner beans. This column presents new evidence suggesting that for many even a nudge may suffice.

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VoxEU
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Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Alan M. Garber
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