Background: Women with acute myocardial infarction have a higher hospital mortality rate than men. This difference has been ascribed to their older age, more frequent comorbidities, and less frequent use of revascularization. The aim of this study is to assess these factors in relation to excess mortality in women.

Methods and Results All hospital admissions in France with a discharge diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction were extracted from the national payment database. Logistic regression on mortality was performed for age, comorbidities, and coronary interventions. Nonparametric microsimulation models estimated the percutaneous coronary intervention and mortality rates that women would experience if they were "treated like men." Data were analyzed from 74 389 patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction, 30.0% of whom were women. Women were older (75 versus 63 years of age; P0.001) and had a higher rate of hospital mortality (14.8% versus 6.1%; P0.0001) than men. Percutaneous coronary interventions were more frequent in men (7.4% versus 4.8%; 24.4% versus 14.2% with stent; P0.001). Mortality adjusted for age and comorbidities was higher in women (P0.001), with an excess adjusted absolute mortality of 1.95%. Simulation models related 0.46% of this excess to reduced use of procedures. Survival benefit related to percutaneous coronary intervention was lower among women.

Conclusions The difference in mortality rate between men and women with acute myocardial infarction is due largely to the different age structure of these populations. However, age-adjusted hospital mortality was higher for women and was associated with a lower rate of percutaneous coronary intervention. Simulations suggest that women would derive benefit from more frequent use of percutaneous coronary intervention, although these procedures appear less protective in women than in men.

Objectives: We examined the utility of the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) universal screening program for military sexual violence.

Methods: We analyzed VHA administrative data for 185 880 women and 4139888 men who were veteran outpatients and were treated in VHA health care settings nationwide during 2003.

Results: Screening was completed for 70% of patients. Positive screens were associated with greater odds of virtually all categories of mental health comorbidities, including posttraumatic stress disorder (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=8.83; 99% confidence interval [CI] = 8.34, 9.35 for women; AOR = 3.00; 99% CI = 2.89, 3.12 for men). Associations with medical comorbidities (e.g., chronic pulmonary disease, liver disease, and for women, weight conditions) were also observed. Significant gender differences emerged.

Conclusions: The VHA policies regarding military sexual trauma represent a uniquely comprehensive health care response to sexual trauma. Results attest to the feasibility of universal screening, which yields clinically significant information with particular relevance to mental health and behavioral health treatment. Women’s health literature regarding sexual trauma will be particularly important to inform health care services for both male and female veterans.

BACKGROUND: To provide quantitative insight into current U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention, we developed a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer, explicitly incorporating uncertainty about the natural history of disease. METHODS: We developed a stochastic microsimulation of cervical cancer that distinguishes different HPV types by their incidence, clearance, persistence, and progression. Input parameter sets were sampled randomly from uniform distributions, and simulations undertaken with each set. Through systematic reviews and formal data synthesis, we established multiple epidemiologic targets for model calibration, including age-specific prevalence of HPV by type, age-specific prevalence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), HPV type distribution within CIN and cancer, and age-specific cancer incidence. For each set of sampled input parameters, likelihood-based goodness-of-fit (GOF) scores were computed based on comparisons between model-predicted outcomes and calibration targets. Using 50 randomly resampled, good-fitting parameter sets, we assessed the external consistency and face validity of the model, comparing predicted screening outcomes to independent data. To illustrate the advantage of this approach in reflecting parameter uncertainty, we used the 50 sets to project the distribution of health outcomes in U.S. women under different cervical cancer prevention strategies. RESULTS: Approximately 200 good-fitting parameter sets were identified from 1,000,000 simulated sets. Modeled screening outcomes were externally consistent with results from multiple independent data sources. Based on 50 good-fitting parameter sets, the expected reductions in lifetime risk of cancer with annual or biennial screening were 76% (range across 50 sets: 69-82%) and 69% (60-77%), respectively. The reduction from vaccination alone was 75%, although it ranged from 60% to 88%, reflecting considerable parameter uncertainty about the natural history of type-specific HPV infection. The uncertainty surrounding the model-predicted reduction in cervical cancer incidence narrowed substantially when vaccination was combined with every-5-year screening, with a mean reduction of 89% and range of 83% to 95%. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate an approach to parameterization, calibration and performance evaluation for a U.S. cervical cancer microsimulation model intended to provide qualitative and quantitative inputs into decisions that must be taken before long-term data on vaccination outcomes become available. This approach allows for a rigorous and comprehensive description of policy-relevant uncertainty about health outcomes under alternative cancer prevention strategies. The model provides a tool that can accommodate new information, and can be modified as needed, to iteratively assess the expected benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different policies in the U.S.

Background: Effective strategies for managing patients with solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN) depend critically on the pre-test probability of malignancy.

Objective: To validate two previously developed models that estimate the probability that an indeterminate solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN) is malignant, based on clinical characteristics and radiographic findings.

Methods: We retrospectively collected data on age, smoking and cancer history, nodule size, location, and spiculation from the medical records of 151 veterans (145 men, 6 women; range 39 to 87 years) with an SPN measuring 7 to 30 mm (inclusive) and a final diagnosis established by histopathology or 2-year follow-up. We compared each patient's final diagnosis to the probability of malignancy predicted by two models: one developed by investigators at the Mayo Clinic and another that we developed from patients enrolled in a VA Cooperative Study. We assessed model accuracy by calculating areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and model calibration by comparing predicted and observed rates of malignancy.

Results: The area under the ROC curve for the Mayo Clinic model (0.80; 95% CI 0.72-0.88) was higher than that of the VA model (0.73; 95% CI 0.64-0.82), but this difference was not statistically significant (Delta=0.07; 95% CI -0.03 to 0.16). Calibration curves showed that the probability of malignancy was underestimated by the Mayo Clinic model and overestimated by the VA model.

Conclusions: Two existing prediction models are sufficiently accurate to guide decisions about the selection and interpretation of subsequent diagnostic tests in patients with SPNs, although clinicians should also consider the prevalence of malignancy in their practice setting when choosing a model.

This issue of CHP/PCOR's Quarterly Update covers news from the Summer 2007 quarter and includes articles about:

• two reports on care coordination -- one on care coordination strategies in general, and a second on care coordination specifically for children with special health care needs;

• an international health section that features work done by undergraduates this summer (with mentorship and guidance from CHP/PCOR staff) on the GOBI initiative, as well as a summary of a the new Children's Project established by core faculty member Paul H. Wise;
• two Research in Brief selections -- one highlights the impact of pay for performance reimbursement structures on end-stage renal disease care, and the second examines the link between obesity and wages in Europe;
• a Medicare restructuring and refinancing piece that highlights the work of director and core faculty member Alan M. Garber, core faculty member Victor R. Fuchs, and colleagues;
• a piece on the effect of chronic illnesses such as obesity on disability trends in the near-elderly population;
• a Staff Spotlight feature on two CHP/PCOR research assistants.

Note to the reader:

The newsletter is fully-navigational. Any text that is surrounded by a dashed box is clickable and will allow the reader to navigate the newsletter more efficiently. The end of each article contains a special symbol (§) that, when clicked, will take the reader back to the table of contents. Please feel free to contact Amber Hsiao with any questions.

Background: Historically, men have been the predominant users of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) care. With more women entering the system, a systematic assessment of their healthcare use and costs of care is needed. We examined how utilization and costs of VHA care differ in women veterans compared with men veterans.

Methods: In this cross-sectional study using centralized VHA administrative databases, main analyses examined annual outpatient and inpatient utilization and costs of care (outpatient, inpatient, and pharmacy) for all female (n = 178,849) and male (n = 3,943,532) veterans using VHA in 2002, accounting for age and medical/mental health conditions. RESULTS: Women had 11.8% more outpatient encounters, 25.9% fewer inpatient days, and 11.4% lower total cost than men; after adjusting for age and medical comorbidity, differences were less pronounced (1.3%, 10.9%, and 2.8%, respectively). Among the 30.8% of women and 24.4% of men with both medical and mental health conditions, women used outpatient services more heavily than men (31.0 vs. 27.3 annual encounters).

Conclusions: VHA's efforts to build capacity for women veterans must account for their relatively high utilization of outpatient services, which is especially prominent in women who have both medical and mental health conditions. Meeting their needs may require delivery systems integrating medical and mental healthcare.

Objective: Findings from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) failed to confirm previous expectations about the net benefits of menopausal hormone therapy and have resulted in reduced use of these medications. The aim of this study was to evaluate women's awareness and knowledge concerning the risks and benefits of hormone therapy.

Design: A nationally representative survey was completed for a sample of 781 women (ages 40-60 y, mean 49 y) drawn from the Knowledge Networks Internet panel 24 months after publication of the first WHI findings, in June 2004. Responses were weighted to reflect the demographics of the US population. The main outcome measures were awareness of WHI and knowledge of its findings. An aggregate score was constructed to assess women's knowledge of the impact of hormone therapy on seven key disease outcomes. Logistic regression determined the independent predictors of (1) WHI awareness and (2) a positive aggregate knowledge score, reflecting appropriate responses about risks and benefits.

Results: Only 29% of women were aware of the WHI results. Only 40% of women had a positive aggregate knowledge score. Aside from awareness of WHI and independent of other factors, knowledge scores were lower for African American women (odds ratio, 0.4; 95% CI: 0.2-0.6) and among women with less education (odds ratio, 0.5; 95% CI: 0.3-0.9). Knowledge was greatest for breast cancer and osteoporosis outcomes and most limited for colorectal cancer and memory loss.

Conclusion: Surveyed women had limited awareness and knowledge of the WHI results, suggesting limited diffusion. Targeting younger, less educated, and African American women is warranted.

Objective: To systematically review all published case reports of children with anthrax to evaluate the predictors of disease progression and mortality.

Data Sources: Fourteen selected journal indexes (1900-1966), MEDLINE (1966-2005), and the bibliographies of all retrieved articles.

Study Selection: Case reports (any language) of anthrax in persons younger than 18 years published between January 1, 1900, and December 31, 2005. Main Exposures Cases with symptoms and culture or Gram stain or autopsy evidence of anthrax infection.

Main Outcome Measures: Disease progression, treatment responses, and mortality.

Results: Of 2499 potentially relevant articles, 73 case reports of pediatric anthrax (5 inhalational cases, 22 gastrointestinal cases, 37 cutaneous cases, 6 cases of primary meningoencephalitis, and 3 atypical cases) met the inclusion criteria. Only 10% of the patients were younger than 2 years, and 24% were girls. Of the few children with inhalational anthrax, none had nonheadache neurologic symptoms, a key finding that distinguishes adult inhalational anthrax from more common illnesses, such as influenza. Overall, observed mortality was 60% (3 of 5) for inhalational anthrax, 65% (13 of 20) for gastrointestinal anthrax, 14% (5 of 37) for cutaneous anthrax, and 100% (6 of 6) for primary meningoencephalitis. Nineteen of the 30 children (63%) who received penicillin-based antibiotics survived, and 9 of the 11 children (82%) who received anthrax antiserum survived.

Conclusions: The clinical presentation of children with anthrax is varied. The mortality rate is high in children with inhalational anthrax, gastrointestinal anthrax, and anthrax meningoencephalitis. Rapid diagnosis and effective treatment of anthrax in children requires recognition of the broad spectrum of clinical presentations of pediatric anthrax.

Many health care providers and policy makers believe that health care financing systems fail to reward high-quality care. In recent years, federal and private payers have begun to promote pay for performance, or value-based purchasing, initiatives to raise the quality of care. This report describes conceptual issues in the design and implementation of pay for performance for chronic kidney disease and ESRD care. It also considers the implications of recent ESRD payment policy changes on the broader goals of pay for performance. Congressionally mandated bundle payment demonstration for dialysis, newly implemented case-mix adjustment of the composite rate, and G codes for the monthly capitation payment are important opportunities to understand facility and provider behavior with particular attention to patient selection and treatment practices. Well-designed payment systems will reward quality care for patients while maintaining appropriate accountability and fairness for health care providers.

Background: Current practice guidelines emphasize the importance of attaining asthma control. We sought to quantify the degree of quality-of-life impairment associated with different levels of asthma control.

Methods: We analyzed prospective data for 987 adults in The Epidemiology and Natural History of Asthma: Outcomes and Treatment Regimens (TENOR) study. Asthma control was assessed by using the Asthma Therapy Assessment Questionnaire, a validated index of control problems ranging from 0 to 4. Disease-specific quality of life and preference-based health utilities were assessed after 12 months of follow-up by using the Mini-Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (AQLQ) and EuroQoL 5-D (EQ-5D). We used multiple linear regression to model the relationship between asthma control and the AQLQ and EQ-5D while controlling for severity classification and lung function.

Results: Asthma control varied widely, even within a population with predominantly moderate-to-severe disease. An inverse relationship was observed between the number of asthma control problems and quality of life. Specifically, poorer control at baseline predicted worse AQLQ and EQ-5D scores at follow-up. Asthma control remained an independent predictor of disease-specific quality of life and general health in multivariate models and was a better longitudinal predictor of health status than asthma severity at baseline.

Conclusion: Poor asthma control is associated with a substantial degree of impairment and predicts quality of life at 12 months, even after taking baseline asthma severity into account.

Clinical implications: Self-assessed measures of asthma control might help to identify and manage those patients at greatest risk for future health impairment.