OBJECTIVE: To identify communication needs and evaluate the effectiveness of alternative communication strategies for bioterrorism responses. METHODS: We provide a framework for evaluating communication needs during a bioterrorism response. Then, using a simulation model of a hypothetical response to anthrax bioterrorism in a large metropolitan area, we evaluate the costs and benefits of alternative strategies for communication during a response. RESULTS: Expected mortality increases significantly with increases in the time for attack detection and announcement; decreases in the rate at which exposed individuals seek and receive prophylaxis; increases in the number of unexposed people seeking prophylaxis; and increases in workload imbalances at dispensing centers. Thus, the timeliness, accuracy, and precision of communications about the mechanisms of exposure and instructions for obtaining prophylaxis and treatment are critical. Investment in strategies that improve adherence to prophylaxis is likely to be highly cost effective, even if the improvement in adherence is modest, and even if such strategies reduce the prophylaxis dispensing rate. CONCLUSIONS: Communication during the response to a bioterror attack must involve the right information delivered at the appropriate time in an effective manner from trusted sources. Because the response system for bioterror communication is only fully operationalized once an attack has occurred, tabletop planning and simulation exercises, and other up-front investments in the design of an effective communication strategy, are critical for effective response planning.

Timely detection of an inhalational anthrax outbreak is critical for clinical and public health management. Syndromic surveillance has received considerable investment, but little is known about how it will perform relative to routine clinical case finding for detection of an inhalational anthrax outbreak. We conducted a simulation study to compare clinical case finding with syndromic surveillance for detection of an outbreak of inhalational anthrax. After simulated release of 1 kg of anthrax spores, the proportion of outbreaks detected first by syndromic surveillance was 0.59 at a specificity of 0.9 and 0.28 at a specificity of 0.975. The mean detection benefit of syndromic surveillance was 1.0 day at a specificity of 0.9 and 0.32 days at a specificity of 0.975. When syndromic surveillance was sufficiently sensitive to detect a substantial proportion of outbreaks before clinical case finding, it generated frequent false alarms.

In 1999, the Blue Cross and Blue Shield Federal Employee Program (FEP) implemented a pilot disease management program to manage congestive heart failure (CHF) among members. The purpose of this project was to estimate the financial return on investment in the pilot CHF program, prior to a full program rollout. A cohort of 457 participants from the state of Maryland was matched to a cohort of 803 nonparticipants from a neighboring state where the CHF program was not offered. Each cohort was followed for 12 months before the program began and 12 months afterward. The outcome measures of primary interest were the differences over time in medical care expenditures paid by FEP and by all payers. Independent variables included indicators of program participation, type of heart disease, comorbidity measures, and demographics. From the perspective of the funding organization (FEP), the estimated return on investment for the pilot CHF disease management program was a savings of $1.08 in medical expenditure for every dollar spent on the program. Adding savings to other payers as well, the return on investment was a savings of $1.15 in medical expenditures per dollar spent on the program. The amount of savings depended upon CHF risk levels. The value of a pilot initiative and evaluation is that lessons for larger-scale efforts can be learned prior to full-scale rollout.

The pharmaceutical industry is facing substantial criticism from many directions, including financial barriers to access to drugs in both developed and developing countries, high profits, spending on advertising and marketing, and other issues. Underlying these criticisms are fundamental questions about the value of the current patent-based drug development system. Six major problems with the patent system are (1) recovery of research costs by patent monopoly reduces access to drugs; (2) market demand rather than health needs determines research priorities; (3) resources between research and marketing are misallocated; (4) the market for drugs has inherent market failures; (5) overall investment in drug research and development is too low, compared with profits; and (6) the existing system discriminates against US patients.

Potential solutions fall into 3 categories: change in drug pricing through either price controls or tiered pricing; change in drug industry structure through a "buy-out" pricing system or with the public sector acting as exclusive research funder; and change in development incentives through a disease burden incentive system, orphan drug approaches, or requiring new drugs to demonstrate improvement over existing products prior to US Food and Drug Administration approval. We recommend 4 complementary reforms: (1) having no requirement to test new drug products against existing products prior to approval but requiring rigorous comparative postapproval testing; (2) international tiered pricing and systematic safeguards to prevent flow-back; (3) increased government-funded research and buy-out for select conditions; and (4) targeted experiments using other approaches for health conditions in which there has been little progress and innovation over the last few decades.

Investors systematically deviate from rationality when making financial decisions, yet the mechanisms responsible for these deviations have not been identified. Using event-related fMRI, we examined whether anticipatory neural activity would predict optimal and suboptimal choices in a financial decision-making task. We characterized two types of deviations from the optimal investment strategy of a rational risk-neutral agent as risk-seeking mistakes and risk-aversion mistakes. Nucleus accumbens activation preceded risky choices as well as risk-seeking mistakes, while anterior insula activation preceded riskless choices as well as risk-aversion mistakes. These findings suggest that distinct neural circuits linked to anticipatory affect promote different types of financial choices and indicate that excessive activation of these circuits may lead to investing mistakes. Thus, consideration of anticipatory neural mechanisms may add predictive power to the rational actor model of economic decision making.