This paper develops a mathematical/economic framework to address the following question: Given a particular population, a specific HIV prevention program and a fixed amount of funds that could be invested in the program, how much money should be invested?

Taiwan's Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center has developed an integrated, team-based care delivery model for breast cancer care that is being expanded to other cancer types in 2009. A decade earlier, President and CEO Dr. Andrew Huang and the Center had worked with the Taiwan National Health Insurance system to create a pay-for-performance reimbursement program for breast cancer care that has since been adopted by five other providers. The program issues capitated, per patient base payments for breast cancer care, with bonus payments based upon provider reporting and performance on a set of quality measures. This case allows readers to examine health care provider strategy, development and implementation of bundled reimbursement, integrated care delivery, quality measurement, and Taiwan's universal health care system.

Context: The aging of the baby boom generation, the extension of life, and progressive increases in disability-free life expectancy have generated a dramatic demographic transition in the United States. Official government forecasts may, however, have inadvertently underestimated life expectancy, which would have major policy implications, since small differences in forecasts of life expectancy produce very large differences in the number of people surviving to an older age. This article presents a new set of population and life expectancy forecasts for the United States, focusing on transitions that will take place by midcentury.

Methods: Forecasts were made with a cohort-components methodology, based on the premise that the risk of death will be influenced in the coming decades by accelerated advances in biomedical technology that either delay the onset and age progression of major fatal diseases or that slow the aging process itself.

Findings: Results indicate that the current forecasts of the U.S. Social Security Administration and U.S. Census Bureau may underestimate the rise in life expectancy at birth for men and women combined, by 2050, from 3.1 to 7.9 years.

Conclusions: The cumulative outlays for Medicare and Social Security could be higher by $3.2 to $8.3 trillion relative to current government forecasts. This article discusses the implications of these results regarding the benefits and costs of an aging society and the prospect that health disparities could attenuate some of these changes.

This study examined whether externally rated job demand and control were associated with depression diagnosis claims in a heavy industrial cohort. The retrospective cohort sample consisted of 7,566 hourly workers aged 18-64 years who were actively employed at 11 US plants between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2003, and free of depression diagnosis claims during an initial 2-year run-in period. Logistic regression analysis was used to model the effect of tertiles of demand and control exposure on depression diagnosis claims. Demand had a significant positive association with depression diagnosis claims in bivariate models and models adjusted for demographic (age, gender, race, education, job grade, tenure) and lifestyle (smoking status, body mass index, cholesterol level) variables (high demand odds ratio = 1.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.86). Control was associated with greater risk of depression diagnosis at moderate levels in unadjusted models only (odds ratio = 1.47, 95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.93), while low control, contrary to expectation, was not associated with depression. The effects of the externally rated demand exposure were lost with adjustment for location. This may reflect differences in measurement or classification of exposure, differences in depression diagnosis by location, or other location-specific factors.

The utility of the life-course framework to address disparities in child health is based on its ability to integrate the science of child development with the requirements of effective and just public policy. I argue that the life-course framework is best assessed in a historical context and through 4 essential observations. First, early genetic and environmental interactions are complex and influence outcomes in different settings in very different ways. Second, these early-life interactions are themselves subject to considerable later influences and, therefore, may not be highly predictive of later outcomes. Third, the etiologic nature or timing of early-life interactions does not, per se, determine if their life-course effects are amenable to later interventions. Fourth, a highly deterministic view of early-life interactions is not supported by the science and can generate counterproductive approaches to research and policy development. Finally, an alternative approach is proposed on the basis of a "human-capacity" model of the life course that connects the search for underlying basic mechanisms with a policy-based examination of the comparative effectiveness of influences at different developmental stages. This approach suggests an expanded research and policy agenda that might be more capable of generating urgently needed strategies for reducing disparities in child health. Such an approach could ultimately define more comprehensively the power and limits of life-course effects in shaping the social distribution of health outcomes in the real world.

Aims The prevalence of Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) has grown rapidly, but little is known about the drivers of inpatient spending in low- and middle-income countries. This study aims to compare the clinical presentation and expenditure on hospital admission for inpatients with a primary diagnosis of Type 2 DM in India, China, Thailand and Malaysia.

Methods We analysed data on adult, Type 2 DM patients admitted between 2005 and 2008 to five tertiary hospitals in the four countries, reporting expenditures relative to income per capita in 2007.

Results Hospital admission spending for diabetic inpatients with no complications ranged from 11 to 75% of per-capita income. Spending for patients with complications ranged from 6% to over 300% more than spending for patients without complications treated at the same hospital. Glycated haemoglobin was significantly higher for the uninsured patients, compared with insured patients, in India (8.6 vs. 8.1%), Hangzhou, China (9.0 vs. 8.1%), and Shandong, China (10.9 vs. 9.9%). When the hospital admission expenditures of the insured and uninsured patients were statistically different in India and China, the uninsured always spent less than the insured patients.

Conclusions With the rising prevalence of DM, households and health systems in these countries will face greater economic burdens. The returns to investment in preventing diabetic complications appear substantial. Countries with large out-of-pocket financing burdens such as India and China are associated with the widest gaps in resource use between insured and uninsured patients. This probably reflects both overuse by the insured and underuse by the uninsured.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a technology frequently used to evaluate low back pain, despite evidence that challenges the usefulness of routine MRI and the surgical interventions it may trigger. We analyze the relationship between MRI supply and care for fee-for-service Medicare patients with low back pain. We find that increases in MRI supply are related to higher use of both low back MRI and surgery. This is worrisome, and careful attention should be paid to assessing the outcomes for patients.

Economics influences how medical care is delivered, organized, and progresses. Fee-for-service payment encourages delivery of services. Fee-for-individual-service, however, offers no incentives for clinicians to efficiently organize the care their patients need. Global capitation provides such incentives; it works well in highly integrated practices but not for independent practitioners. The failures of utilization management in the 1990s demonstrated the need for a third alternative to better align incentives, such as bundling payment for an episode of care. Building on Medicare's approach to hospital payment, one can define expanded diagnosis-related groups that include all hospital, physician, and other costs during the stay and appropriate preadmission and postdischarge periods. Physicians and hospitals voluntarily forming a new entity (a care delivery team) would receive such bundled payments along with complete flexibility in allocating the funds. Modifications to gainsharing and antikickback rules, as well as reforms to malpractice liability laws, will facilitate the functioning of the care delivery teams. The implicit financial incentives encourage efficient care for the patient; the episode focus will facilitate measuring patient outcomes. Payment can be based on the resources used by those care delivery teams achieving superior outcomes, thereby fostering innovation improving outcomes and reducing waste.

Background. Helicobacter pylori vaccines are under development to prevent infection. We quantified the cost‐effectiveness of such a vaccine in the United States, using a dynamic transmission model.

Methods. We compartmentalized the population by age, infection status, and clinical disease state and measured effectiveness in quality‐adjusted life years (QALYs). We simulated no intervention, vaccination of infants, and vaccination of school‐age children. Variables included costs of vaccine, vaccine administration, and gastric cancer treatment (in 2007 US dollars), vaccine efficacy, quality adjustment due to gastric cancer, and discount rate. We evaluated possible outcomes for periods of 10-75 years.

Results. H. pylori vaccination of infants would cost $2.9 billion over 10 years; savings from cancer prevention would be realized decades later. Over a long time horizon (75 years), incremental costs of H. pylori vaccination would be $1.8 billion, and incremental QALYs would be 0.5 million, yielding a cost‐effectiveness ratio of $3871/QALY. With school‐age vaccination, the cost‐effectiveness ratio would be $22,137/QALY. With time limited to <40 years, the cost‐effectiveness ratio exceeded $50,000/QALY.

Conclusion. When evaluated with a time horizon beyond 40 years, the use of a prophylactic H. pylori vaccine was cost‐effective in the United States, especially with infant vaccination.

Background and objectives. Rates of dialysis withdrawal are higher among the elderly and lower among Blacks, yet it is unknown whether preferences for withdrawal and engagement in advance care planning also vary by age and race or ethnicity.

Design, setting, participants and methods. We recruited 61 participants from two dialysis clinics to complete questionnaires regarding dialysis withdrawal preferences in five different health states. Engagement in advance care planning (end-of-life discussions), completion of advance directives and ‘do not resuscitate' or ‘do not intubate' (DNR/DNI) orders were ascertained by a questionnaire and from dialysis unit records.

Results. The mean age was 62 ± 15 years; 38% were Black, 11% were Latino, 34% were White and 16% of participants were Asian. Blacks were less likely to prefer dialysis withdrawal as compared with Whites (odds ratio 0.16, 95% confidence interval 0.03-0.88) and other race/ethnicity groups, and this difference was not explained by age, education, comorbidity and other confounders. In contrast, older age was not associated with preferences for withdrawal. Rates of engagement in end-of-life discussions were higher than for documentation of advance care planning for all age and most race/ethnicity groups. Although younger participants and minorities were generally less likely to document treatment preferences as compared with older patients and Whites, they were not less likely to engage in end-of-life discussions.

Conclusions. Preferences for withdrawal vary by race/ ethnicity, whereas the pattern of engagement in advance care planning varies by age and race/ethnicity. Knowledge of these differences may be useful for improving communication about end-of-life preferences and in implementing effective advance care planning strategies among diverse haemodialysis patients.