Institutions and Organizations
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We developed a mathematical model to simulate the impact of various partially effective preventive HIV vaccination scenarios in a population at high risk for heterosexually transmitted HIV. We considered an adult population defined by gender (male/female), disease stage (HIV-negative, HIV-positive, AIDS, and death), and vaccination status (unvaccinated/vaccinated) in Soweto, South Africa. Input data included initial HIV prevalence of 20% (women) and 12% (men), vaccination coverage of 75%, and exclusive male negotiation of condom use.

We explored how changes in vaccine efficacy and postvaccination condom use would affect HIV prevalence and total HIV infections prevented over a 10-year period. In the base-case scenario, a 40% effective HIV vaccine would avert 61,000 infections and reduce future HIV prevalence from 20% to 13%. A 25% increase (or decrease) in condom use among vaccinated individuals would instead avert 75,000 (or only 46,000) infections and reduce the HIV prevalence to 12% (or only 15%). Furthermore, certain combinations of increased risk behavior and vaccines with <43% efficacy could worsen the epidemic. Even modestly effective HIV vaccines can confer enormous benefits in terms of HIV infections averted and decreased HIV prevalence. However, programs to reduce risk behavior may be important components of successful vaccination campaigns.

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Working Papers
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Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome
Authors
Douglas K. Owens
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Background: HIV prevention funds are often allocated by decision makers at multiple levels. High-level decision makers may allocate funds to regions, and regional decision makers then allocate those funds to specific programs. Often, funds are allocated proportionally (e.g., in proportion to HIV incidence) rather than efficiently (i.e., to maximize HIV infections averted). The authors investigate the impact of efficient and proportional allocation methods at 2 different decision levels.

Methods: The authors developed an optimization model of resource allocation at 2 levels-an aggregate upper level and multiple local levels-and considered efficient allocation and allocation proportional to HIV incidence. Using data from 40 U.S. states, they compared 4 strategies for allocating HIV prevention funds.

Results: The greatest health benefit (HIV infections averted) occurred when efficient allocations were made at both levels. When funds were allocated proportionally at the higher level and efficiently at the lower level, the health benefit was about 5% less than when efficient allocations were made at both levels. When funds were allocated efficiently at the higher level and proportionally at the lower level, the health benefit was 15% less than when efficient allocations were made at both levels. The least health benefit (23% less than when efficient allocations were made at both levels) occurred with proportional allocation at both levels.

Conclusions: Efficient allocation only at the higher level cannot overcome poor allocations at lower levels. Moreover, efficient allocation at the lower level is likely to yield greater gains than efficient allocation at the higher level. Thus, upper-level decision makers, such as donor organizations, should develop incentives to promote efficient allocation by lower-level decision makers.

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Journal Articles
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Medical Decision Making
Authors
Margaret L. Brandeau
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Objectives: We examined the utility of the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) universal screening program for military sexual violence.

Methods: We analyzed VHA administrative data for 185 880 women and 4139888 men who were veteran outpatients and were treated in VHA health care settings nationwide during 2003.

Results: Screening was completed for 70% of patients. Positive screens were associated with greater odds of virtually all categories of mental health comorbidities, including posttraumatic stress disorder (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=8.83; 99% confidence interval [CI] = 8.34, 9.35 for women; AOR = 3.00; 99% CI = 2.89, 3.12 for men). Associations with medical comorbidities (e.g., chronic pulmonary disease, liver disease, and for women, weight conditions) were also observed. Significant gender differences emerged.

Conclusions: The VHA policies regarding military sexual trauma represent a uniquely comprehensive health care response to sexual trauma. Results attest to the feasibility of universal screening, which yields clinically significant information with particular relevance to mental health and behavioral health treatment. Women’s health literature regarding sexual trauma will be particularly important to inform health care services for both male and female veterans.

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Journal Articles
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American Journal of Public Health
Authors
Mark W. Smith
Susan M. Frayne
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The extent to which chronic kidney disease (CKD) affects achievement of blood pressure targets is not comprehensively understood. We evaluated the effects of CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate: <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2) on achievement of blood pressure control (nondiabetic: <140/90 mm Hg; diabetic: <130/85 mm Hg) using data from the Guidelines for Drug Therapy of Hypertension Trial. This 15-month study obtained outpatient blood pressures from 3 Veteran’s Affairs institutions. Among 9985 subjects with hypertension, we evaluated the association of CKD with achieved control and antihypertensive medication use.

We also explored the association between the number of antihypertensives and systolic, diastolic, and pulse pressure. After 15 months, 41% of participants met blood pressure targets. CKD was not associated with control (adjusted odds ratio: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.93 to 1.15). However, CKD was associated with higher odds of use of ≥3 medications among nondiabetic subjects (odds ratio: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.25 to 1.71) and diabetic subjects (odds ratio: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.66). A significant interaction was observed between CKD and the number of antihypertensives as determinants of diastolic and pulse pressures. Among non-CKD participants, a greater number of antihypertensives (0 compared with 4) was associated with wider pulse pressure ({Delta}5.2 mm Hg; P<0.001), mainly because of higher systolic pressures ({Delta}3.6 mm Hg; P=0.001).

Among participants with CKD, although greater numbers of antihypertensives were associated with even wider pulse pressures ({Delta}8.3 mm Hg; P<0.001), this was primarily because of lower diastolic pressures ({Delta}4.8 mm Hg; P<0.01). Among participants with CKD, greater use of antihypertensives was associated with lower diastolic pressures. Given recent evidence suggesting adverse effects of diastolic hypotension, these results suggest potential risks in patients with CKD from aggressive attempts to control systolic blood pressure.

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Journal Articles
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Hypertension
Authors
Mary K. Goldstein
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Objective: To describe the development of an instrument for assessing workforce perceptions of hospital safety culture and to assess its reliability and validity.

Data Sources/Study Setting: Primary data collected between March 2004 and May 2005. Personnel from 105 U.S. hospitals completed a 38-item paper and pencil survey. We received 21,496 completed questionnaires, representing a 51 percent response rate.

Study Design: Based on review of existing safety climate surveys, we developed a list of key topics pertinent to maintaining a culture of safety in high-reliability organizations. We developed a draft questionnaire to address these topics and pilot tested it in four preliminary studies of hospital personnel. We modified the questionnaire based on experience and respondent feedback, and distributed the revised version to 42,249 hospital workers.

Data Collection: We randomly divided respondents into derivation and validation samples. We applied exploratory factor analysis to responses in the derivation sample. We used those results to create scales in the validation sample, which we subjected to multitrait analysis (MTA).

Principal Findings: We identified nine constructs, three organizational factors, two unit factors, three individual factors, and one additional factor. Constructs demonstrated substantial convergent and discriminant validity in the MTA. Cronbach's  coefficients ranged from 0.50 to 0.89.

Conclusions: It is possible to measure key salient features of hospital safety climate using a valid and reliable 38-item survey and appropriate hospital sample sizes. This instrument may be used in further studies to better understand the impact of safety climate on patient safety outcomes.

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Journal Articles
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Health Services Research
Authors
Sara J. Singer
Laurence C. Baker
David M. Gaba
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Six cases of coagulase-negative staphylococcal mediastinitis were identified in the latter half of 1999. A new preoperative cleansing solution was suspected by hospital staff to be a factor in the outbreak. We evaluated this possible risk factor along with other known and suspected surgical site infection risk factors in this case-control study.

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Journal Articles
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Infectious Control and Hospital Epidemiology
Authors
Julie Parsonnet
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Although gastric hypochlorhydria is a risk factor for gastroenteritis and for gastric cancer, no reliable, inexpensive, noninvasive test exists for screening or epidemiologic studies. We aimed to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the blood quininium resin test (bQRT) for hypochlorhydria, against pH monitoring. Twelve fasting adult volunteers-seven with and five without H. pylori infection-ingested 80 mg/kg of quininium resin twice, once with and once without acid suppression. Gastric pH was monitored for 75 minutes; serum samples were obtained at times 0 and 75 minutes. The bQRT levels were compared to gastric pH, controlling for omeprazole use and H. pylori infection. Subjects with a median recorded pH > or =3.5 were considered hypochlorhydric. Using a bQRT level of 10 as a cutoff for hypochlorhydria, the sensitivity and specificity of the bQRT were 100% and 37.5%, respectively. The bQRT predicted omeprazole use more accurately than pH monitoring. In conclusions, The bQRT has a high sensitivity for hypochlorhydria, making it potentially useful in populations with a high prevalence of hypochlorhydria. In its current formulation, the bQRT's low specificity makes it less useful in low-risk population.

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Journal Articles
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Digestive Diseases and Sciences
Authors
Julie Parsonnet

What accounts for differences in "ideal affect," or the affective states that people value and ideally want to feel? The investigators predict that ideal affect influences what people do to feel good and what decisions they make. Preliminary studies suggest that younger adults value excitement states more and calm states less than do older adults, with middle age adults falling in between the groups. Therefore, age differences in mood-producing behaviors and decision making may be mediated by ideal affect.

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During the 2001 US anthrax attacks, mortality from inhalational anthrax was significantly lower than had been reported historically, which was attributed in part to early identification and timely treatment. During future attacks, clinicians will rely on published descriptions of the clinical features of inhalational anthrax to rapidly diagnose patients and institute appropriate treatment. Published descriptions of typical inhalation anthrax usually include patients presenting with cough, dyspnea, or chest pain and found to have abnormal lung examination results with pleural effusions or enlarged mediastinum.

The purpose of this article is to evaluate whether atypical presentations of inhalational anthrax occur and to describe the features of these presentations. We define atypical presentations as those in patients with confirmed anthrax infection who do not have known cutaneous, gastrointestinal, or inhalational ports of entry. We reviewed the case reports of 42 patients with atypical anthrax (published between 1900 and 2004) that may have had an inhalational source of infection to evaluate whether their clinical presentations differed from the typical findings of inhalational anthrax. Patients with atypical anthrax were less likely to have cough, chest pain, or abnormal lung examination results than patients with typical inhalational anthrax (P.05 for all comparisons). A previously published screening protocol for patients with suspected anthrax correctly identified 91% of patients with atypical presentations.

We conclude that although uncommon, atypical presentations of inhalational anthrax likely occur. Timely diagnosis and treatment of patients with inhalational anthrax require clinical awareness of the full spectrum of signs and symptoms associated with inhalational anthrax.

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Journal Articles
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Annals of Emergency Medicine
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This study was the first to synthesize quantitatively the literature on the effectiveness of pedometers to change physical activity and health outcomes among the elderly.  Preliminary results were presented at the Stanford Prevention Research Center (March 2007) and at the Northern California regional Society for General Internal Medicine (SGIM) Meeting (March 2007), where it won the award for best presentation.  The project was also presented at the International SGIM Meeting in Toronto in April 2007 and received a great deal of media attention.  The results of this study we

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