One in eight Americans today is over the age of 65, and the proportion will increase dramatically in the future. The aging of the population has begun to drive tax and budget decisions and the federal policy agenda, as policy makers and voters look ahead to enormous demands on the health and income security programs. Indeed, it is projected that Medicare and Social Security will constitute nearly half the federal budget in the year 2030, when one in five Americans will be over 65. In Policies for an Aging Society, Stuart H. Altman and David I. Shactman have gathered experts in public and health policy, economics, law, and management to identify the salient issues and explore realistic options. From positions ranging from liberal to conservative, the contributors take a wide view of the philosophical, economic, and programmatic aspects of the social protection programs for elderly Americans. They ask broad questions and propose integrated conceptions of how our society can best provide for the needs of its aging population.

BACKGROUND: Patients with end-stage renal disease are known to have decreased survival after myocardial infarction, but the association of less severe renal dysfunction with survival after myocardial infarction is unknown.

OBJECTIVES: To determine how patients with renal insufficiency are treated during hospitalization for myocardial infarction and to determine the association of renal insufficiency with survival after myocardial infarction.

DESIGN: Cohort study.

SETTING: All nongovernment hospitals in the United States.

PATIENTS: 130 099 elderly patients with myocardial infarction hospitalized between April 1994 and July 1995.

MEASUREMENTS: Patients were categorized according to initial serum creatinine level: no renal insufficiency (creatinine level < 1.5 mg/dL [<132 micromol/L]; n = 82 455), mild renal insufficiency (creatinine level, 1.5 to 2.4 mg/dL [132 to 212 micromol/L]; n = 36 756), or moderate renal insufficiency (creatinine level, 2.5 to 3.9 mg/dL [221 to 345 micromol/L]; n = 10 888). Vital status up to 1 year after discharge was obtained from Social Security records.

RESULTS: Compared with patients with no renal insufficiency, patients with moderate renal insufficiency were less likely to receive aspirin, beta-blockers, thrombolytic therapy, angiography, and angioplasty during hospitalization. One-year mortality was 24% in patients with no renal insufficiency, 46% in patients with mild renal insufficiency, and 66% in patients with moderate renal insufficiency (P < 0.001). After adjustment for patient and treatment characteristics, mild (hazard ratio, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.63 to 1.73]) and moderate (hazard ratio, 2.35 [CI, 2.26 to 2.45]) renal insufficiency were associated with substantially elevated risk for death during the first month of follow-up. This increased mortality risk continued until 6 months after myocardial infarction.

CONCLUSIONS: Renal insufficiency was an independent risk factor for death in elderly patients after myocardial infarction. Targeted interventions may be needed to improve treatment for this high-risk population.

The Nation's capacity to respond to bioterrorism depends in part on the ability of clinicians and public health officials to detect, manage, and communicate during a bioterrorism event. Information technologies and decision support systems (IT/DSSs) have the potential to aid clinicians (e.g., physicians, nurses, nurse practitioners, and respiratory therapists) and public health officials to respond effectively to a bioterrorist attack.

The Evidence Report from which this summary was taken details the methodology, results, and conclusions of a systematic and extensive search for published materials on the use of IT/DSSs to serve the information needs of clinicians and public health officials in the event of a bioterrorist attack. The information is intended to assist clinicians, public health officials, and policymakers to improve preparedness for a bioterrorism event.

Our purpose was to compare exercise test scores and ST measurements with a physician's estimation of the probability of the presence and severity of angiographic disease and the risk of death. The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association exercise testing guidelines provide equations to calculate treadmill scores and recommend their use to improve the predictive accuracy of the standard exercise test. However, if physicians can estimate the probability of coronary artery disease and prognosis as well as the scores, there is no reason to add this complexity to test interpretation.

A clinical exercise test was performed and an angiographic database was used to print patient summaries and treadmill reports. The clinical/treadmill test reports were sent to expert cardiologists and to 2 other groups, including randomly selected cardiologists and internists. They classified the patients summarized in the reports as having a high, low, or intermediate probability for the presence of any severe angiographic disease and estimated a numerical probability from 0% to 100%. The Social Security Death Index was used to determine survival status of the patients.

Twenty-six percent of the patients had severe angiographic disease, and the annual mortality rate for the population was 2%. Forty-five expert cardiologists returned estimates on 473 patients, 37 randomly chosen practicing cardiologists returned estimates on 202 patients, 29 randomly chosen practicing internists returned estimates on 162 patients, 13 academic cardiologists returned estimates on 145 patients, and 27 academic internists returned estimates on 272 patients. When probability estimates for presence and severity of angiographic disease were compared, in general, the treadmill scores were superior to physicians' and ST analysis at predicting severe angiographic disease. When prognosis was estimated, treadmill prognostic scores did as well as expert cardiologists and better than most other physician groups.

Estimates of the presence of clinically significant and severe angiographic coronary artery disease provided by scores were superior to physician estimates and ST analysis alone. Estimates of prognosis provided by scores were similar to the estimates made by expert cardiologists and more accurate than the estimates made by most other physician groups.

Finding optimal three-dimensional molecular configurations based on a limited amount of experimental and/or theoretical data requires efficient nonlinear optimization algorithms. Optimization methods must be able to find atomic configurations that are close to the absolute, or global, minimum error and also satisfy known physical constraints such as minimum separation distances between atoms (based on van der Waals interactions). The most difficult obstacles in these types of problems are that 1) using a limited amount of input data leads to many possible local optima and 2) introducing physical constraints, such as minimum separation distances, helps to limit the search space but often makes convergence to a global minimum more difficult. We introduce a constrained global optimization algorithm that is robust and efficient in yielding near-optimal three-dimensional configurations that are guaranteed to satisfy known separation constraints. The algorithm uses an atom-based approach that reduces the dimensionality and allows for tractable enforcement of constraints while maintaining good global convergence properties. We evaluate the new optimization algorithm using synthetic data from the yeast phenylalanine tRNA and several proteins, all with known crystal structure taken from the Protein Data Bank. We compare the results to commonly applied optimization methods, such as distance geometry, simulated annealing, continuation, and smoothing. We show that compared to other optimization approaches, our algorithm is able combine sparse input data with physical constraints in an efficient manner to yield structures with lower root mean squared deviation.

Previous research suggests that "direct" reforms to the liability system - reforms designed to reduce the level of compensation to potential claimants - reduce medical expenditures without important consequences for patient health outcomes. We extend this research by identifying the mechanisms through which reforms affect the behavior of health care providers. Although we find that direct reforms improve medical productivity primarily by reducing malpractice claims rates and compensation conditional on a claim, our results suggest that other policies that reduce the time spent and the amount of conflict involved in defending against a claim can also reduce defensive practices substantially. In addition, we find that "malpractice pressure" has a larger impact on diagnostic rather than therapeutic treatment decisions. Our results provide an empirical foundation for simulating the effects of untried malpractice reforms on health care costs and outcomes, based on their predicted effects on the malpractice pressure facing medical providers.