As Vietnam opens its economy to privatization, its system of healthcare will face a series of crucial tests. Vietnam's system of private healthcare -- once comprised only of individual physicians holding clinic hours in their homes -- has come to also include larger customer-oriented clinics based on an American business model. As the two models compete in the expanding private market, it becomes increasingly important to understand patients' perceptions of the alternative models of care.

This study reports on interviews with 194 patients in two different types of private-sector clinics in Vietnam: a western-style clinic and a traditional style, after-hours clinic. In bivariate and multivariate analyses, we found that patients at the western style clinic reported both higher expectations of the facility and higher satisfaction with many

aspects of care than patients at the after-hours clinic. These different perceptions appear to be based on the interpersonal manner of the physician seen and the clinic's delivery methods rather than perceptions of the physician's technical skill and method of treatment. These fndings were unaffected by the ethnicity of physician seen.

These fndings suggest that patients in Vietnam recognize and prefer more customer-oriented care and amenities, regardless of physician ethnicity and perceive no signiccant differences in technical skill between the private delivery models.

Outcomes research often requires estimating the impact of a binary treatment on a binary outcome in a non-randomized setting, such as the effect of taking a drug on mortality. The data often come from self-selected samples, leading to a spurious correlation between the treatment and outcome when standard binary dependent variable techniques, like logit or probit, are used. Intuition suggests that a two-step procedure (analogous to two-stage least squares) might be sufficient to deal with this problem if variables are available that are correlated with the treatment choice but not the outcome.

This paper demonstrates the limitations of such a two-step procedure. We show that such estimators will not generally be consistent. We conduct a Monte Carlo exercise to compare the performance of the two-step probit estimator, the two-stage least squares linear probability model estimator, and the multivariate probit. The results from this exercise argue in favour of using the multivariate probit rather than the two-step or linear probability model estimators, especially when there is more than one treatment, when the average probability of the dependent variable is close to 0 or 1, or when the data generating process is not normal. We demonstrate how these different methods perform in an empirical example examining the effect of private and public insurance coverage on the mortality of HIV+ patients.

We sought to understand how diagnosis with HIV affects health-related quality of life. We assessed health-related quality of life using utility-based measures in a Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) clinic and a University-based clinic. Respondents assessed health-related quality of life regarding their current health, and retrospectively assessed their health 1 month prior to and 2 months after diagnosis with HIV infection. Sixty-six patients completed the study. The overall mean utilities for health 1 month before and 2 months after diagnosis were 0.87 (standard error 0.037), and 0.80 (0.043) (p0.005 by rank sign test), but the effect of diagnosis differed between the two clinics, with a substantial decrease in the university clinic and a small non-significant decrease in the VA clinic. The overall mean utility for current health was 0.85 (0.034), assessed on average 7.5 years after diagnosis. When asked directly whether diagnosis of HIV decreased health-related quality of life, 47% agreed, but 35% stated that HIV diagnosis positively affected health-related quality of life. Diagnosis with HIV decreased health-related quality of life at 2 months on average, but this effect diminished over time, and differed among patient populations. Years after diagnosis, although half of the patients believed that diagnosis reduced health-related quality of life, one-third reported improved health-related quality of life.

This issue of CHP/PCOR's quarterly newsletter, which covers news from the fall 2005 quarter, includes articles about:

• a study concluding that the implantable cardioverter defibrillator -- one of the most expensive medical devices on the market -- is worth its high cost, in appropriate patients, because it prevents sudden cardiac deaths;
• the evolution and broad application of the Quality Indicators, a set of practical tools developed by CHP/PCOR researchers that are used by hundreds of U.S. hospitals, medical groups, health insurers, state health agencies and business coalitions to screen for quality problems;
• a study finding that the Internet can be a valuable tool to help patients with stigmatized illnesses (such as mental illness) find information about and seek treatment for their illness;
• CHP/PCOR-hosted seminars on global health themes, given by Jack Chow of the World Health Organization -- who discussed combating malaria, TB and HIV/AIDS -- and Dean Jamison of the NIH's Fogarty International Center, who discussed evaluating countries' performance on health; and
• a prestigious national award won by two CHP/PCOR trainees at the annual meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

In 1999, the Blue Cross and Blue Shield Federal Employee Program (FEP) implemented a pilot disease management program to manage congestive heart failure (CHF) among members. The purpose of this project was to estimate the financial return on investment in the pilot CHF program, prior to a full program rollout. A cohort of 457 participants from the state of Maryland was matched to a cohort of 803 nonparticipants from a neighboring state where the CHF program was not offered. Each cohort was followed for 12 months before the program began and 12 months afterward. The outcome measures of primary interest were the differences over time in medical care expenditures paid by FEP and by all payers. Independent variables included indicators of program participation, type of heart disease, comorbidity measures, and demographics. From the perspective of the funding organization (FEP), the estimated return on investment for the pilot CHF disease management program was a savings of $1.08 in medical expenditure for every dollar spent on the program. Adding savings to other payers as well, the return on investment was a savings of $1.15 in medical expenditures per dollar spent on the program. The amount of savings depended upon CHF risk levels. The value of a pilot initiative and evaluation is that lessons for larger-scale efforts can be learned prior to full-scale rollout.

To allocate HIV prevention resources effectively, it is important to have information about the effectiveness of alternative prevention programs as a function of expenditure. We refer to this relationship as the ldquoproduction functionrdquo for a prevention program. Few studies of HIV prevention programs have reported this relationship. This paper demonstrates the value of such information. We present a simple model for allocating HIV prevention resources, and apply the model to an illustrative HIV prevention resource allocation problem. We show that, without sufficient information about prevention program production functions, suboptimal decisions may be made. We show that epidemiologic data, such as estimates of HIV prevalence or incidence, may not provide enough information to support optimal allocation of HIV prevention resources. Our results suggest that good allocations can be obtained based on fairly basic information about prevention program production functions: an estimate of fixed cost plus a single estimate of cost and resulting risk reduction. We find that knowledge of production functions is most important when fixed cost is high and/or when the budget is a significantly constraining factor. We suggest that, at the minimum, future data collection on prevention program effectiveness should include fixed and variable cost estimates for the intervention when implemented at a ldquotypicalrdquo level, along with a detailed description of the intervention and detailed description of costs by category.

The pharmaceutical industry is facing substantial criticism from many directions, including financial barriers to access to drugs in both developed and developing countries, high profits, spending on advertising and marketing, and other issues. Underlying these criticisms are fundamental questions about the value of the current patent-based drug development system. Six major problems with the patent system are (1) recovery of research costs by patent monopoly reduces access to drugs; (2) market demand rather than health needs determines research priorities; (3) resources between research and marketing are misallocated; (4) the market for drugs has inherent market failures; (5) overall investment in drug research and development is too low, compared with profits; and (6) the existing system discriminates against US patients.

Potential solutions fall into 3 categories: change in drug pricing through either price controls or tiered pricing; change in drug industry structure through a "buy-out" pricing system or with the public sector acting as exclusive research funder; and change in development incentives through a disease burden incentive system, orphan drug approaches, or requiring new drugs to demonstrate improvement over existing products prior to US Food and Drug Administration approval. We recommend 4 complementary reforms: (1) having no requirement to test new drug products against existing products prior to approval but requiring rigorous comparative postapproval testing; (2) international tiered pricing and systematic safeguards to prevent flow-back; (3) increased government-funded research and buy-out for select conditions; and (4) targeted experiments using other approaches for health conditions in which there has been little progress and innovation over the last few decades.