Three student researchers with Stanford Health Policy have been awarded the Lee B. Lusted Student Prizes by the Society for Medical Decision Making.

The cash prizes, which were awarded in October, recognize outstanding presentations of original student research.

First-year doctoral student Sze-chuan Suen won the Lusted Award for Best Student Presentation in the area of Health Services and Policy Research.  Suen’s abstract, Dynamic Transmission Microsimulation of Tuberculosis in India to Assess the Future Impact of Treatment Programs, explores the connection between tuberculosis treatment and the growing burden of multi-drug resistant TB in India. Co-authors included Eran Bendavid, an affiliate of Stanford Health Policy; and Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert, a core faculty member of SHP, which is a center at the university’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Bendavid and Goldhaber-Fiebert are both assistant professors of medicine.

Fourth-year doctoral student Lauren Cipriano won the Lusted Award for Best Student Presentation in the area of Applied Health Economics. Her abstract, Optimal Information Acquisition Policy in Dynamic Healthcare Policy: Application to HCV Screening, demonstrates how a complete policy lifecycle analysis of Hepatitis C screening can maximize its social value. Cipriano illustrated the practical value of her theoretical framework using an HCV model developed by Stanford doctoral student Shan Liu and Goldhaber-Fiebert.

Eva Enns, who finished her PhD in June, won the Lusted Award for Best Student Presentation in the area of Quantitative Methods and Theoretical Developments.  Enns’s abstract, Calibration Methods for Inferring Transition Probabilities from Cross-sectional Studies, presents an iterative algorithm that accurately and consistently infers transition probabilities from multiple cross-sectional prevalence estimates. Enns, a recent Stanford graduate and first-year faculty member at the University of Minnesota, completed this project while at Stanford, in collaboration with SH-trainee Suzann Pershing, Stanford doctoral student Yang Wang and Goldhaber-Fiebert.

Stanford investigators’ research presentations at the conference covered a wide range of clinical topics from infectious diseases to emergency care. They also contributed new methods and frameworks to help policymakers decide how best to allocate scarce resources for problems such as determining the cost-effectiveness of competing HIV management strategies and quantifying the mortality rates of high-risk groups infected with chronic Hepatitis C.

Among SHP’s participants were a number with top-ranked, plenary abstracts. Former SHP trainee and current Stanford faculty member, M. Kit Delgado, was acknowledged for his top-ranked abstract, which established that current helicopter scene transport for trauma victims is not as cost-effective as ground transport. Goldhaber-Fiebert was also recognized for his top-ranked abstract, which developed calibration methods to infer rates of exposure for time-varying risk factors from household surveys using the example of smoking in India.

SHP affiliates who gave oral presentations and posters included: Daniella Perlroth, Dena Bravata, and Lauren Shluzas. Trainees Kevin Erickson and Zachary Kastenberg were recognized as Lee B. Lusted Award finalists for their original research in the field of Applied Health Economics, and recent Stanford graduate, Sabina Alistar, was named a finalist in the area of Health Services and Policy Research.  Other trainees and former trainees who presented included Serena Faruque, Suzann Pershing, Jonathan Glazer Shaw, Grace Hunter, Jessie Juusola, and Crystal Smith-Spangler. Co-authors and faculty mentors on many of these projects include SHP director, Douglas Owens; former SHP director, Alan Garber; and Stanford professors Margaret Brandeau, Mary Goldstein, Glenn Chertow, Bendavid and Goldhaber-Fiebert.

The Society for Medical Decision Making brings researchers, educators and others in health care together in a mission of improving health outcomes through the advancement of proactive systematic approaches to clinical decision-making and policy-formation in health care. The value the society places on interdisciplinary scholarship and methodological excellence mirrors SHP’s focus on conducting rigorous, multi-disciplinary research that lays the foundation for better domestic and international health policy and health care.

“Knowing the dedication of our students and faculty to tackling important topics with sophisticated analysis, I was not surprised with our results at this year’s annual meeting. But it really was a wonderful moment to hear each Lusted Prize winner’s name, followed by their Stanford affiliation,” said Kathryn McDonald, SHP’s executive director. “Our entire Stanford contingent shared a sense of pride since everyone supports each other’s work.”

From Shanghai to São Paulo, people around the world are living longer than ever, challenging long-held ideas about retirement and well-established national retirement systems. Stanford health economists Karen Eggleston and Victor R. Fuchs offer an innovative view of the global aging phenomenon in an article published recently in the Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Drawing on a century of demographic data from 17 countries, Eggleston and Fuchs show that the share of increases in life expectancy realized after age 65 was only about 20 percent at the beginning of the 20th century but close to 80 percent by the dawn of the 21st century. Expected lifetime labor force participation as a percent of life expectancy is now declining. Eggleston and Fuchs share four interrelated responses to the economic and social challenges posed by this “new demographic transition:”

• Increase the retirement age.
• Encourage savings.
• Strengthen education.
• Emphasize healthy lifestyles early to ensure productivity in old age.

Eggleston is director of the Asia Health Policy Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Fuchs is Henry J. Kaiser, Jr., Professor Emeritus, in Stanford’s Department of Economics and Department of Health Research and Policy, and a senior fellow at FSI and SIEPR.

Of the four policy responses the article proposes, is one especially critical?

Fuchs: The most important solution in terms of its potential impact would be people changing their attitudes toward retirement. This would mean people postponing retirement and saving more during their working years. If you work five years longer, for example, you would have greater savings and a shorter period of time when you would need the money.

Eggleston: We tend to think of the solutions as being interrelated. To address this longstanding and inevitable global demographic transition, organizations and policy structures need to support changes in individual behavior. In the case of the retirement age in the United States and European countries, policymakers need to change the many incentives that encourage people to retire younger.

What do you most hope policymakers will take away from the article?

Fuchs: We hope they will recognize the absolute need for individuals and organizations to plan for later retirement.

What are the special challenges faced by China and India, the world’s largest populations?

Eggleston: Longer lives in China and India contribute to improved human development, yet population aging also brings special challenges. China’s population is aging more rapidly than India’s and both countries need to invest more in the education and health of their young people, especially in poor rural areas.

In India, nutrition and education will help to reap a one-time boost to economic growth if the large cohorts of the working age population can be productively employed, while building a foundation for sustained improvement of living standards. China’s youth need to be as productive as possible to support the elderly while continuing to improve the national living standard.

The coming decade will be crucial in China, as the country transitions into a new economic phase and expands its fledging social protection system. The goal should be to ameliorate disparities and protect the vulnerable, while maintaining a financially sustainable and culturally appropriate balance of government and family responsibility for old-age support.

Preparing a meal in some of the world’s poorest rural areas can turn an ordinary activity into a deadly chore. Animal dung and crop scraps often fuel the indoor fires used for cooking. And before any food fills a hungry belly, thick black smoke fills a family’s lungs.

Pneumonia and other acute respiratory infections kill about 1 million people a year in low-income countries, making them the top cause of death in the developing world and the greatest threat to children’s lives. Makeshift stoves belch much of the polluted air leading to those illnesses. About 75 percent of South Asians and nearly half the world’s population use open-fire stoves inside their homes.

“The smoke is asphyxiating,” said Grant Miller, an associate professor of medicine at Stanford working on ways to get people to buy – and use – cleaner, safer stoves. “It burns your eyes and you can’t stop coughing.”

Governments and humanitarian organizations have urged people to trade their traditional stoves for safer models, many of which have chimneys that funnel smoke out of a home. But the switch from dangerous stoves has been slow to come, even though most people using them know they’re harmful.

Miller and his colleagues are studying what’s behind the reluctance and what can be done about it. They suspect much of the problem rests with the widespread approach to clean cookstove conversion, which focuses on educating people about the appliances’ health hazards and offering new models at a low cost.

Their most recent findings, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, boil down to this: Clean and modern cookstoves don’t have features people want. And until they’re redesigned, people are unlikely to bother with them.

“People don’t think of cookstoves as health technologies,” said Miller, an associate professor of medicine and a Stanford Health Policy faculty member at the university’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Miller is the senior author of the PNAS paper, which published online June 11.

“They don’t think respiratory illness is the biggest health problem that they have,” he said. “And when you ask them what they want from a stove, they talk about saving time and having better fuel efficiency. They’re not talking about smoke emissions.”

In the first of two studies, Miller – joined by Yale researchers and Lynn Hildemann, a Stanford engineering professor affiliated with the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment – surveyed about 2,500 women who cook for their families in rural Bangladesh. 

Nearly all of the women use traditional stoves, and 94 percent of them said they know the smoke from their stoves can make them sick. But 76 percent said the smoke is less harmful than polluted water, and 66 percent said it wasn’t as dangerous as rotten food.

“People know their cookstoves are bad, but they don’t think cookstoves are the most important problem they face,” Miller said. “They’d rather spend their money fixing those things and getting their kids into a good school than buying a new cookstove.”

When asked what features are most important in a stove, the women talked about things that could save fuel costs, cooking time and the hassle that goes into collecting fuel.

“A very small percent said reducing pollution was important,” Miller said.

The researchers then tried to assess more directly how Bangladeshis value new stoves. They offered 2,200 customers across 42 rural villages the opportunity to buy one of two models – one boasted improved fuel efficiency; the other had a chimney to reduce exposure to indoor smoke.

At the market prices of $5.80 for an efficient stove and $10.90 for the chimney stove, less than a third of customers ordered either model. And when the stoves were delivered a few weeks after the orders were taken, a very small number of families actually went through with the purchase of either model.  Large randomized discounts increased customer interest in fuel-efficient stoves, but did little to raise purchase rates of chimney stoves.

“A big implication is that the health education and social marketing approaches aren’t going to work,” Miller said. “You need to get inside the heads of the users and figure out what they really want and value – even if unrelated to smoke and health – and then give it to them.”

The lead author of the PNAS paper was Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, an economist at Yale. It was co-authored by Yale researchers Puneet Dwivedi and Robert Bailis. Their work was supported by the Freeman Spogli Institute’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford’s Woods Institute for the Environment, and the International Growth Centre.

China’s demographic landscape is rapidly changing, and the government has responded by launching ambitious social and health service reforms to meet the changing needs of the country’s 1.3 billion people. This week, officials approved a five-year plan to develop a comprehensive nationwide social security network.

Karen Eggleston, the Asia Health Policy Program (AHPP) director and a Stanford Health Policy fellow, discusses the success of China’s health care reforms—including its recently established universal health care system—and the long road still ahead.

Why is the overall health and wellbeing of China’s population important globally?

There are many reasons why the health of China’s citizens matters within a larger global context. On the most basic level, China represents almost 20 percent of humanity. But it is also a major player in the world economy and it depends on having a healthy workforce, especially now that its population is aging more. The government’s ability to meet the needs of its underserved citizens contributes to a more productive and stable China, and works towards closing the huge gaps we see in human wellbeing across the world.

China also potentially offers a model for other developing countries, such as India, that may want to figure out how to make universal health coverage work at a tenth of the income of most of the countries that have put it into place before.

What are some of the biggest changes in China’s health care system since 1949?

One of the most significant changes is that China has achieved very basic universal health insurance coverage in a relatively short period of time.  

Throughout the Mao period (1949–1978) there was a health care system linked to the centrally planned economy, which provided a basic level of coverage via government providers with a lot of regional variation. When economic reform came in 1980, large parts of the system—particularly financing for insurance—collapsed. The majority of China’s citizens were uninsured during the past few decades of very rapid social and economic development.

China’s overall population is changing quite dramatically, which means it has different health care needs, such as treating chronic disease and caring for an increasingly elderly population. The central government is trying to establish a system of accessible primary care—a concept that China’s barefoot doctors helped to pioneer but that fell into disarray—and health services that fit these new needs. 

How does China’s basic health care system work? Are there segments of the population still not receiving adequate coverage and care?

China has had a system where people can select their own doctors. Patients usually want to go to clinics attached to the highest-reputation hospitals, but of course, when you are not insured you almost always by default go to where you can afford the care. “It is difficult to see the doctor, and it is expensive” has been the lament of patients in China, so an explicit goal of the health care reforms has been to address this.

The term “universal coverage” has different definitions. China initially put in place a form of insurance that only covers 20 or 30 percent of medical costs for the previously uninsured population, especially in rural areas. Benefits have expanded, but remain limited. As with the previous system, disparities in coverage still exist across the population. China not only has a huge population with huge economic differences, but within that there is a large migrant worker population. It is a challenge to figure out how to cover these citizens and how to provide them with access to better care. The government is quite aware there are segments of the population not receiving equal coverage, and it continues to strive to resolve the issue.  

What are the greatest innovations in China’s health care system in recent years?

One of the most remarkable things China has achieved is really its new health insurance system. Even if the current coverage is not particularly generous it is nearly universal, and mechanisms are put in place each year to provide more generous coverage. China is also working on strengthening its primary care and population health services, infusing a huge sum of government money into these efforts. It is the only developing country of its per-capita income that has achieved such results so far.

Interestingly, a lot of people assume China achieved its universal coverage by mandate, while in fact the central government did so by subsidizing the cost for local governments and individuals. This reduces the burden, for example, on poorer rural governments and residents, and is one innovative way China is trying to eliminate the disparity in access to care.

Eggleston has recently published a working paper on China’s health care reforms since the Mao era on the AHPP website, as well as an article in the Milken Institute Review.

Gordon Liu, a Chinese government advisor on health care and the executive director of Peking University’s Health Economics and Management Institute, spoke at Stanford on May 29 on the future of China’s health care system.