BACKGROUND:

Screening for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients using abdominal ultrasonography and alpha-foetoprotein levels is widely practiced. AIM: To evaluate its cost-effectiveness using a Markov decision model.

METHODS:

Several screening strategies with abdominal ultrasonography or computerized tomography and serum alpha-foetoprotein at 6-12-month intervals in 40-year-old patients with chronic hepatitis C and compensated cirrhosis were simulated from a societal perspective, resulting in discounted costs per quality-adjusted life-year saved. Extensive sensitivity analysis was performed.

RESULTS:

For the least efficacious strategy, annual alpha-foetoprotein/ultrasonography, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (vs. no screening) was $23 043/quality-adjusted life-year. Biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography, the most commonly used strategy in the United States, was more efficacious, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of $33 083/quality-adjusted life-year vs. annual alpha-foetoprotein/ultrasonography. The most efficacious strategy, biannual alpha-foetoprotein/ultrasonography, resulted in a cost-effectiveness ratio of $73 789/quality-adjusted life-year vs. biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography. Biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual computerized tomography screening resulted in a cost-effectiveness ratio of $51 750/quality-adjusted life-year vs. biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography screening.

CONCLUSIONS:

Screening for hepatocellular carcinoma is as cost-effective as other accepted screening protocols. Of the strategies evaluated, biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography gives the most quality-adjusted life-year gain while still maintaining a cost-effectiveness ratio $50 000/quality-adjusted life-year. Biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual computerized tomography screening may be cost-effective.

OBJECTIVE: Although an increasing fraction of Medicare beneficiaries die outside the hospital, the proportion of total Medicare expenditures attributable to care in the last year of life has not dropped. We sought to determine whether disproportionate increases in hospital treatment intensity over time among decedents are responsible for the persistent growth in end-of-life expenditures.

DATA SOURCE: The 1985-1999 Medicare Medical Provider Analysis and Review (MedPAR) and Denominator files.

STUDY DESIGN: We sampled inpatient claims for 20 percent of all elderly fee-for-service Medicare decedents and 5 percent of all survivors between 1985 and 1999 and calculated age-, race-, and gender-adjusted per-capita inpatient expenditures and rates of intensive care unit (ICU) and intensive procedure use. We used the decedent-to-survivor expenditure ratio to determine whether growth rates among decedents outpaced growth relative to survivors, using the growth rate among survivors to control for secular trends in treatment intensity. Data Collection. The data were collected by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Real inpatient expenditures for the Medicare fee-for-service population increased by 60 percent, from $58 billion in 1985 to $90 billion in 1999, one-quarter of which were accrued by decedents. Between 1985 and 1999 the proportion of beneficiaries with one or more intensive care unit (ICU) admission increased from 30.5 percent to 35.0 percent among decedents and from 5.0 percent to 7.1 percent among survivors; those undergoing one or more intensive procedure increased from 20.9 percent to 31.0 percent among decedents and from 5.8 percent to 8.5 percent among survivors. The majority of intensive procedures in the United States were performed in the more numerous survivors, although in 1999 50 percent of feeding tube placements, 60 percent of intubations/tracheostomies, and 75 percent of cardiopulmonary resuscitations were in decedents. The proportion of beneficiaries dying in a hospital decreased from 44.4 percent to 39.3 percent, but the likelihood of being admitted to an ICU or undergoing an intensive procedure during the terminal hospitalization increased from 38.0 percent to 39.8 percent and from 17.8 percent to 30.3 percent, respectively. One in five Medicare beneficiaries who died in the hospital in 1999 received mechanical ventilation during their terminal admission.

CONCLUSIONS: Inpatient treatment intensity for all fee-for-service beneficiaries increased between 1985 and 1999 regardless of survivorship status. Absolute changes in per-capita hospital expenditures, ICU admissions, and intensive inpatient procedure use were much higher among decedents. Relative changes were similar except for ICU admissions, which grew faster among survivors. The secular decline in in-hospital deaths has not resulted in decreased per capita utilization of expensive inpatient services in the last year of life. This could imply that net hospital expenditures for the dying might have been even higher over this time period if the shift toward hospice had not occurred.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening patients with a B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) blood test to identify those with depressed left ventricular systolic function. BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic patients with depressed ejection fraction (EF) may have less progression to heart failure if they can be identified and treated. METHODS: We used a decision model to estimate economic and health outcomes for different screening strategies using BNP and echocardiography to detect left ventricular EF 40% for men and women age 60 years. We used published data from community cohorts (gender-specific BNP test characteristics, prevalence of depressed EF) and randomized trials (benefit from treatment). RESULTS: Screening 1,000 asymptomatic patients with BNP followed by echocardiography in those with an abnormal test increased the lifetime cost of care (176,000 US dollars for men, 101,000 US dollars for women) and improved outcome (7.9 quality-adjusted life years [QALYs] for men, 1.3 QALYs for women), resulting in a cost per QALY of 22,300 US dollars for men and 77,700 US dollars for women. For populations with a prevalence of depressed EF of at least 1%, screening with BNP followed by echocardiography increased outcome at a cost 50,000 US dollars per QALY gained. Screening would not be attractive if a diagnosis of left ventricular dysfunction led to significant decreases in quality of life or income. CONCLUSIONS: Screening populations with a 1% prevalence of reduced EF (men at age 60 years) with BNP followed by echocardiography should provide a health benefit at a cost that is comparable to or less than other accepted health interventions.

OBJECTIVES: This study seeks to further characterize the role of exercise testing in the elderly for prognosis and diagnosis of coronary artery disease. BACKGROUND: Recent exercise testing guidelines have recognized that statements regarding the elderly do not have an adequate evidence-based quality because the studies they are based on have limitations in sample size and design. The Duke Treadmill Score has been recommended for risk stratification, but recent evidence has suggested that it does not function in the elderly.

METHODS: The study population consisted of male veterans (1872 patients >or=65 years; 3798 patients <65 years) who underwent routine clinical exercise testing with a mean follow-up of six years. A subset who underwent coronary angiography as clinically indicated (elderly, n = 405; younger, n= 809) were included. The primary outcome for all subjects was cardiovascular mortality with coronary angiographic findings as the outcome in those selected for angiography.

RESULTS: In survival analysis, exercise-induced ST depression was prognostic in both age groups only when cardiovascular death was considered as the end point. Peak metabolic equivalents were the most significant predictor for both age groups only when all-cause death was considered as the end point. New age-specific prognostic scores were developed and found to be predictive for cardiovascular mortality in the elderly. Moreover, in the angiographic subset of the elderly, a specific diagnostic score provided significantly better discrimination than exercise ST measurements alone. For any new score, there is a need for validation in another elderly population.

CONCLUSIONS: The mortality end point affected the choice of prognostic variables. This study demonstrates that exercise test scores can be helpful for the diagnosis and prognosis of coronary disease in the elderly.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to examine mortality associated with tricuspid regurgitation (TR) after controlling for left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), right ventricular (RV) dilation and dysfunction, and pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP). BACKGROUND: Tricuspid regurgitation is a frequent echocardiographic finding; however, the association with prognosis is unclear. METHODS: We retrospectively identified 5,223 patients (age 66.5 +/- 12.8 years; predominantly male) undergoing echocardiography at one of three Veterans Affairs Medical Center laboratories over a period of four years. Follow-up data were available for four years (mean 498 +/- 402 days). Kaplan-Meier and proportional hazards methods were used to compare differences in survival among TR grades. RESULTS: Mortality increased with increasing severity of TR. The one-year survival was 91.7% with no TR, 90.3% with mild TR, 78.9% with moderate TR, and 63.9% with severe TR. Moderate or greater TR was associated with increased mortality regardless of PASP (hazard ratio [HR] 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16 to 1.49 for PASP >40 mm Hg; HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.62 for PASP or =40 mm Hg) and LVEF (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.34 to 1.66 for EF 50%; HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.71 for EF > or =50%). When adjusted for age, LVEF, inferior vena cava size, and RV size and function, survival was worse for patients with moderate (HR 1.17, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.42) and severe TR (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.66) than for those with no TR. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that increasing TR severity is associated with worse survival in men regardless of LVEF or pulmonary artery pressure. Severe TR is associated with a poor prognosis, independent of age, biventricular systolic function, RV size, and dilation of the inferior vena cava.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation is the most common cardiac arrhythmia associated with significant medical complications. We examined trends in the medical therapy of atrial fibrillation in the United States from 1991 through 2000. METHODS: Data from 1355 visits among patients with atrial fibrillation were obtained from the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, a nationally representative assessment of office-based practice. We assessed trends in medication use for ventricular rate control (digoxin, beta-blockers, and calcium channel blockers), sinus rhythm maintenance (class IA, IC, and III antiarrhythmics), and thromboembolism prevention (oral anticoagulants and aspirin). RESULTS: Overall rate control medication use decreased from 72% of visits in 1991-1992 to 56% in 1999-2000 (P =.01 for trend) due to declining digoxin use (64% to 37%, P.001 for trend). beta-Blocker and calcium channel blocker use remained unchanged. Although there was no change in overall sinus rhythm medication use over time, amiodarone hydrochloride use increased from 0.2% to 6.4% (P.001 for trend), while quinidine use decreased from 5.0% to 0.0% (P =.01 for trend). Oral anticoagulant use increased (28% to 41%, P =.01 for trend), with the greatest increase in patients aged 80 years and older (14% to 48%, P.001 for trend). Despite this, only 46.5% of patients at high risk for stroke were taking anticoagulants in 1999-2000. CONCLUSIONS: Digoxin use in atrial fibrillation decreased over time, without concomitant increases in beta-blocker or calcium channel blocker use. Miodarone replaced quinidine as the dominant sinus rhythm medication. Although oral anticoagulant use increased over time, particularly in the oldest patients, fewer than half of the patients at high risk for stroke were anticoagulated.

Medical providers often fail to treat depression. We examined whether treatment is more aggressive in a setting with accessible mental health resources, the Veterans Health Administration (VA). VA and non-VA primary care physicians and medical specialists viewed a videotape vignette portraying a patient meeting criteria for major depression and then answered interviewer-administered questions about management. We found that 24% of VA versus 15% of non-VA physicians would initiate guideline-recommended treatment (antidepressants or mental health referral, or both) (P = .09). Among those who identified depression as likely, 42% of VA versus 19% of non-VA physicians would treat (P = .002): 23% versus 3% recommended mental health referral (P .001) and 21% versus 17% an antidepressant (P = .67). Although many patients with major depression may not receive guideline-recommended management, VA physicians do initiate mental health referral more often than do non-VA physicians. Access to mental health services may prove valuable in the campaign to increase physician adherence to depression clinical guidelines.

Drug-eluting stents are quickly replacing bare-metal stents as the arterial revascularization device of choice. Because nearly all of the information we have about patient outcomes with drug-eluting stents is from trials designed for U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval, we are missing some of the information critical to a more comprehensive understanding of how these new devices will perform at the population level.