To relate the changing epidemiology of childhood to current patterns of pediatric practice in the United States, a critical literature review and selected analyses of national datasets, including the National Health Interview Survey, the National Hospital Discharge Survey, and National Vital Statistics System, were conducted. Trends over the past several decades suggest that the incidence of serious acute illness in children has fallen while the prevalence of chronic disease has risen. These trends have resulted in a growing concentration of serious childhood morbidity and mortality into chronic disorders. Current pediatric practice structures appear to be poorly suited to meet the growing demands of chronic disease in children and likely will require major reform in organization, financing, and training.

BACKGROUND: To provide quantitative insight into current U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention, we developed a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer, explicitly incorporating uncertainty about the natural history of disease. METHODS: We developed a stochastic microsimulation of cervical cancer that distinguishes different HPV types by their incidence, clearance, persistence, and progression. Input parameter sets were sampled randomly from uniform distributions, and simulations undertaken with each set. Through systematic reviews and formal data synthesis, we established multiple epidemiologic targets for model calibration, including age-specific prevalence of HPV by type, age-specific prevalence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), HPV type distribution within CIN and cancer, and age-specific cancer incidence. For each set of sampled input parameters, likelihood-based goodness-of-fit (GOF) scores were computed based on comparisons between model-predicted outcomes and calibration targets. Using 50 randomly resampled, good-fitting parameter sets, we assessed the external consistency and face validity of the model, comparing predicted screening outcomes to independent data. To illustrate the advantage of this approach in reflecting parameter uncertainty, we used the 50 sets to project the distribution of health outcomes in U.S. women under different cervical cancer prevention strategies. RESULTS: Approximately 200 good-fitting parameter sets were identified from 1,000,000 simulated sets. Modeled screening outcomes were externally consistent with results from multiple independent data sources. Based on 50 good-fitting parameter sets, the expected reductions in lifetime risk of cancer with annual or biennial screening were 76% (range across 50 sets: 69-82%) and 69% (60-77%), respectively. The reduction from vaccination alone was 75%, although it ranged from 60% to 88%, reflecting considerable parameter uncertainty about the natural history of type-specific HPV infection. The uncertainty surrounding the model-predicted reduction in cervical cancer incidence narrowed substantially when vaccination was combined with every-5-year screening, with a mean reduction of 89% and range of 83% to 95%. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate an approach to parameterization, calibration and performance evaluation for a U.S. cervical cancer microsimulation model intended to provide qualitative and quantitative inputs into decisions that must be taken before long-term data on vaccination outcomes become available. This approach allows for a rigorous and comprehensive description of policy-relevant uncertainty about health outcomes under alternative cancer prevention strategies. The model provides a tool that can accommodate new information, and can be modified as needed, to iteratively assess the expected benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different policies in the U.S.

Professional psychology's ability to meet older Americans' psychological needs and to simultaneously thrive as a profession will be closely tied to the federal Medicare program over the coming decades. Despite legislative changes in the 1980s providing professional autonomy to psychologists and expanding coverage for mental health services, Medicare coverage policies, reimbursement mechanisms, and organizational traditions continue to limit older Americans' access to psychological services.

This article describes how psychologists can influence Medicare coverage policy. Specifically, the authors examine widely unrecognized policy processes and recent political developments and analyze the recent creation of a new Medicare counseling benefit, applying J. W. Kingdon's (1995) well-known model of policy change. These recent developments offer new opportunities for expanding Medicare coverage of psychological services, particularly in the areas of prevention, screening, and early intervention. The article provides an analysis to guide psychologists in engaging in strategic advocacy and incorporating psychological prevention and early intervention services into Medicare. As Medicare policy entrepreneurs, psychologists can improve the well-being of millions of Americans who rely on the national health insurance program and, in so doing, can help shape the future practice of psychology.

Objective: Findings from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) failed to confirm previous expectations about the net benefits of menopausal hormone therapy and have resulted in reduced use of these medications. The aim of this study was to evaluate women's awareness and knowledge concerning the risks and benefits of hormone therapy.

Design: A nationally representative survey was completed for a sample of 781 women (ages 40-60 y, mean 49 y) drawn from the Knowledge Networks Internet panel 24 months after publication of the first WHI findings, in June 2004. Responses were weighted to reflect the demographics of the US population. The main outcome measures were awareness of WHI and knowledge of its findings. An aggregate score was constructed to assess women's knowledge of the impact of hormone therapy on seven key disease outcomes. Logistic regression determined the independent predictors of (1) WHI awareness and (2) a positive aggregate knowledge score, reflecting appropriate responses about risks and benefits.

Results: Only 29% of women were aware of the WHI results. Only 40% of women had a positive aggregate knowledge score. Aside from awareness of WHI and independent of other factors, knowledge scores were lower for African American women (odds ratio, 0.4; 95% CI: 0.2-0.6) and among women with less education (odds ratio, 0.5; 95% CI: 0.3-0.9). Knowledge was greatest for breast cancer and osteoporosis outcomes and most limited for colorectal cancer and memory loss.

Conclusion: Surveyed women had limited awareness and knowledge of the WHI results, suggesting limited diffusion. Targeting younger, less educated, and African American women is warranted.

Many health care providers and policy makers believe that health care financing systems fail to reward high-quality care. In recent years, federal and private payers have begun to promote pay for performance, or value-based purchasing, initiatives to raise the quality of care. This report describes conceptual issues in the design and implementation of pay for performance for chronic kidney disease and ESRD care. It also considers the implications of recent ESRD payment policy changes on the broader goals of pay for performance. Congressionally mandated bundle payment demonstration for dialysis, newly implemented case-mix adjustment of the composite rate, and G codes for the monthly capitation payment are important opportunities to understand facility and provider behavior with particular attention to patient selection and treatment practices. Well-designed payment systems will reward quality care for patients while maintaining appropriate accountability and fairness for health care providers.

In recent decades, elderly Americans have enjoyed enormous gains in longevity and reductions in disability. The causes of this progress remain unclear, however. This paper investigates the role of fetal programming, exploring how economic progress early in the 20th century might be related to declining disability today. Specifically, we match sudden unexpected economic changes experienced in utero in America's Dust Bowl during the Great Depression to unusually detailed individual-level information about old-age disability and chronic disease. We are unable to detect any meaningful relationship between early life factors and outcomes in later life. We conclude that, if such a relationship exists in the United States, it is most likely not a quantitatively important explanation for declining disability today.

Background: In 2002, the Accreditation Council on Graduate Medical Education enacted regulations, effective 1 July 2003, that limited work hours for all residency programs in the United States.

Objective: To determine whether work-hour regulations were associated with changes in mortality in hospitalized patients.

Design: Comparison of mortality rates in high-risk teaching service patients hospitalized before and after July 2003, with nonteaching service patients used as a control group.

Setting: 551 U.S. community hospitals included in the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's Nationwide Inpatient Survey between January 2001 and December 2004.

Patients: 1,511,945 adult patients admitted for 20 medical and 15 surgical diagnoses.

Measurement: Inpatient mortality.

Results: In 1,268,738 medical patients examined, the regulations were associated with a 0.25% reduction in the absolute mortality rate (P = 0.043) and a 3.75% reduction in the relative risk for death. In subgroup analyses, particularly large improvements in mortality were observed among patients admitted for infectious diseases (change, -0.66%; P = 0.007) and in medical patients older than 80 years of age (change, -0.71%; P = 0.005). By contrast, in 243 207 surgical patients, regulations were not associated with statistically significant changes (change, 0.13%; P = 0.54).

Limitations: Teaching status was assigned according to hospital characteristics because direct information on each patient's provider was not available. Results reflect changes associated with the sum of regulations, not specifically with caps on work hours.

Conclusions: The work-hour regulations were associated with decreased short-term mortality among high-risk medical patients in teaching hospitals but were not associated with statistically significant changes among surgical patients in teaching hospitals.

Background: Electronic health records (EHRs) have been proposed as a sustainable solution for improving the quality of medical care. We assessed the association between EHR use, as implemented, and the quality of ambulatory care in a nationally representative survey.

Methods: We performed a retrospective, cross-sectional analysis of visits in the 2003 and 2004 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. We examined EHR use throughout the United States and the association of EHR use with 17 ambulatory quality indicators. Performance on quality indicators was defined as the percentage of applicable visits in which patients received recommended care.

Results: Electronic health records were used in 18% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15%-22%) of the estimated 1.8 billion ambulatory visits (95% CI, 1.7-2.0 billion) in the United States in 2003 and 2004. For 14 of the 17 quality indicators, there was no significant difference in performance between visits with vs without EHR use. Categories of these indicators included medical management of common diseases, recommended antibiotic prescribing, preventive counseling, screening tests, and avoiding potentially inappropriate medication prescribing in elderly patients. For 2 quality indicators, visits to medical practices using EHRs had significantly better performance: avoiding benzodiazepine use for patients with depression (91% vs 84%; P = .01) and avoiding routine urinalysis during general medical examinations (94% vs 91%; P = .003). For 1 quality indicator, visits to practices using EHRs had significantly worse quality: statin prescribing to patients with hypercholesterolemia (33% vs 47%; P = .01).

Conclusion: As implemented, EHRs were not associated with better quality ambulatory care.

CONTEXT: Quality problems and spiraling costs have resulted in widespread interest in solutions that improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the health care system. Care coordination has been identified by the Institute of Medicine as one of the key strategies for potentially accomplishing these improvements.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this project were to develop a working definition of care coordination, apply it to a review of systematic reviews, and identify theoretical frameworks that might predict or explain how care coordination mechanisms are influenced by factors in the health care setting and how they relate to patient outcomes and health care costs.

DATA SOURCES AND REVIEW METHODS: We used literature databases, Internet searches, and personal contacts to assemble background information on ongoing care coordination programs; potential definitions; conceptual frameworks and related empirical evidence; and care coordination measures. We also conducted literature searches through September 30, 2006 of MEDLINE®, and November 15, 2006 for CINAHL®, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, American College of Physicians Journal Club, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, PsychInfo, Sociological Abstracts, and Social Services Abstracts to identify systematic reviews of care coordination interventions. We excluded systematic reviews with a narrow focus, namely those conducted solely in the inpatient setting, or where the only two participants involved in care were the patient and a health care provider.

RESULTS: We identified numerous ongoing programs in the private and public sector, most of which have not yet been evaluated. We identified over 40 definitions of care coordination and related terminology, and developed a working definition drawing together common elements: Care coordination is the deliberate organization of patient care activities between two or more participants (including the patient) involved in a patient's care to facilitate the appropriate delivery of health care services. Organizing care involves the marshalling of personnel and other resources needed to carry out all required patient care activities, and is often managed by the exchange of information among participants responsible for different aspects of care. We used this definition to develop our inclusion/exclusion criteria for selecting potentially relevant systematic reviews. Our literature search yielded 4,730 publications, of which 75 systematic reviews evaluating care coordination interventions, either fully or as a part of the review, met inclusion criteria. From these, we identified 20 different coordination interventions (e.g., multidisciplinary teams, case management, disease management) covering 12 clinical populations (e.g., mental health, heart disease, diabetes) and conducted in multiple settings (e.g., outpatient, community, home). Finally, we identified four conceptual frameworks (Andersen's behavioral framework, Donabedian's structure-process-outcome framework, Nadler/Tushman and others' Organizational design framework with Wagner's Chronic Care Model provided as an example of such design, and Gittell's Relational coordination framework) with potential applicability to studying care coordination by assessing baseline characteristics of the environment, specific coordination mechanism alternatives, and outcomes. The strongest evidence shows benefit of care coordination interventions for patients who have congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, severe mental illness, a recent stroke, or depression, though evidence about key intervention components is lacking.

CONCLUSIONS: Care coordination interventions represent a wide range of approaches at the service delivery and systems level. Their effectiveness is most likely dependent upon appropriate matching between intervention and care coordination problem, though more conceptual, empirical and experimental research is required to explore this hypothesis.