The ethical case for the social insurance model will be strengthened as people realize that most health problems have at least in part a genetic basis. The efficiency case will benefit from recognition that employment-based insurance has high administrative costs but provides no advantages to society as a whole. The desire to exert more direct control over rising expenditures will provide an additional reason to introduce some form of national health insurance.

The timing of such a change, however, will depend largely on factors external to health care. Major changes in health policy are political acts undertaken for political purposes. This was true when Bismarck introduced national health insurance to the new German state in the 19th century. It was true when England adopted national health insurance after World War II; and it will be true in the United States as well. National health insurance will probably come to the United States after a major change in the political climate, the kind of change that often accompanies a war, a depression, or large scale civil unrest. Until then, the major effect of the new plans will be to make young and healthy workers better off at the expense of their older, sicker colleagues.

Our purpose was to compare exercise test scores and ST measurements with a physician's estimation of the probability of the presence and severity of angiographic disease and the risk of death. The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association exercise testing guidelines provide equations to calculate treadmill scores and recommend their use to improve the predictive accuracy of the standard exercise test. However, if physicians can estimate the probability of coronary artery disease and prognosis as well as the scores, there is no reason to add this complexity to test interpretation.

A clinical exercise test was performed and an angiographic database was used to print patient summaries and treadmill reports. The clinical/treadmill test reports were sent to expert cardiologists and to 2 other groups, including randomly selected cardiologists and internists. They classified the patients summarized in the reports as having a high, low, or intermediate probability for the presence of any severe angiographic disease and estimated a numerical probability from 0% to 100%. The Social Security Death Index was used to determine survival status of the patients.

Twenty-six percent of the patients had severe angiographic disease, and the annual mortality rate for the population was 2%. Forty-five expert cardiologists returned estimates on 473 patients, 37 randomly chosen practicing cardiologists returned estimates on 202 patients, 29 randomly chosen practicing internists returned estimates on 162 patients, 13 academic cardiologists returned estimates on 145 patients, and 27 academic internists returned estimates on 272 patients. When probability estimates for presence and severity of angiographic disease were compared, in general, the treadmill scores were superior to physicians' and ST analysis at predicting severe angiographic disease. When prognosis was estimated, treadmill prognostic scores did as well as expert cardiologists and better than most other physician groups.

Estimates of the presence of clinically significant and severe angiographic coronary artery disease provided by scores were superior to physician estimates and ST analysis alone. Estimates of prognosis provided by scores were similar to the estimates made by expert cardiologists and more accurate than the estimates made by most other physician groups.

PURPOSE: To determine if greater managed care market share is associated with greater use of recommended therapies for fee-for-service patients with acute myocardial infarction.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We examined the care of 112,900 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries aged > or = 65 years who resided in one of 320 metropolitan statistical areas and who were admitted with an acute myocardial infarction between February 1994 through July 1995. Use of recommended medical treatments and 30-day survival were determined for areas with low (<10%), medium (10% to 30%), and high (>30%) managed care market share.

RESULTS: After adjustment for severity of illness, teaching status of the admission hospital, and area characteristics, areas with high levels of managed care had greater use of beta-blockers (relative risk [RR] for greater use = 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06 to 1.29) and aspirin at discharge (RR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.07), but less appropriate coronary angiography (RR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.01) and reperfusion (RR = 0.95; 95% CI: 0.85 to 1.03) when compared with areas with low levels of managed care.

CONCLUSIONS: Medicare beneficiaries with fee-for-service insurance who resided in areas with high managed care activity were more likely to have received appropriate treatment with beta-blockers and aspirin, and less likely to have undergone coronary angiography following admission for myocardial infarction. Thus, the effects of managed care may not be limited to managed care enrollees.

BACKGROUND: Electronically available data, both administrative, such as outpatient encounter diagnostic data, and clinical, such as problem lists, are being used increasingly for outcome and quality assessment, risk adjustment, and clinical reminder systems. OBJECTIVE: To determine the accuracy of outpatient primary care diagnostic information recorded in administrative and clinical files in a Veterans Affairs VISTA (Veterans Health Information Systems and Technology Architecture) database compared with medical chart notes. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional medical chart review of 148 patients attending a general medicine clinic at a university-affiliated Veterans Affairs hospital for 9 diagnoses relevant to the choice of drug therapy for hypertension. PATIENTS AND METHODS: An administrative file of encounter diagnoses, for a 2-year period, and a clinical file of the problem list maintained by the clinician were the sources of electronic diagnoses. We compared these sources with diagnoses abstracted by medical chart review. We estimated the sensitivity and specificity of each electronic data source for detecting medical chart note diagnoses. RESULTS: The sensitivity for 8 of the 9 study diagnoses was greater than 80% in the administrative file and 49% in the clinical problem list. The specificity was good for the administrative file (91% to 100%) and even better for the clinical file (98% to 100%). CONCLUSIONS: Outpatient encounter diagnoses relevant to hypertension recorded as electronic data had high specificity, and some codes had high sensitivity when collected over multiple visits. The administrative file was more sensitive but less specific than the clinical file. Administrative vs clinical files can be selected to minimize either the false-negative or the false-positive designations, respectively, as dictated by the needs of the quality assessment review.

Intestinal-type gastric adenocarcinomas usually are preceded by chronic atrophic gastritis. Studies of gastric cancer prevention often rely on identification of this condition. In a clinical trial, we sought to determine the best serological screening method for chronic atrophic gastritis and compared our findings to the published literature. Test characteristics of potential screening tests (antibodies to Helicobacter pyloni or CagA, elevated gastrin, low pepsinogen, increased age) alone or in combination were examined among consecutive subjects enrolled in a study of H. pylori and preneoplastic gastric lesions in Chiapas, Mexico; 70% had chronic atrophic gastritis. English-language articles concerning screening for chronic atrophic gastritis were also reviewed. Sensitivity for chronic atrophic gastritis was highest for antibodies to H. pylori (92%) or CagA, or gastrin levels >25 ng/l (both 83%). Specificity, however, was low for these tests (18, 41, and 22%, respectively). Pepsinogen levels were highly specific but insensitive markers of chronic atrophic gastritis (for pepsinogen I 25 microg/l, sensitivity was 6% and specificity was 100%; for pepsinogen I:pepsinogen II ratio 2.5, sensitivity was 14% and specificity was 96%). Combinations of markers did not improve test characteristics. Screening test characteristics from the literature varied widely and did not consistently identify a good screening strategy. In this study, CagA antibodies alone had the best combination of test characteristics for chronic atrophic gastritis screening. However, no screening test was both highly sensitive and highly specific for chronic atrophic gastritis.

Background: Cohort and case-crossover studies were conducted to evaluate whether new Helicobacter pylori infections are followed by increased diarrhea.

Methods: Participants were 6-month-old to 12-year-old shantytown residents living near Lima, Peru. Baseline data were collected from community households. Health interviews were completed daily, and sera, drawn every 4 months, were tested for H pylori immunoglobulin G. Diarrhea rates among newly H pylori-infected (seroconverting) children were compared with rates among persistently uninfected and infected children using cohort and case-crossover analyses.

Results: Sera were obtained from 345 children from January 1, 1995, through September 1, 1997. H pylori incidence was 12% per year (36 H pylori infections in 109 866 seronegative days). In adjusted cohort analyses, seroconverters had more diarrhea days (rate ratio: 2.0; 95% confidence interval: 1.6-2.4), episodes, and sick days in the year after infection than did uninfected children; and more diarrhea days and sick days than did persistently infected children. This effect was strongest in the first 2 months. Case-crossover analyses supported these findings.

Conclusion: Preventing H pylori infection may help reduce pediatric diarrheal disease.