There is much debate among health policy researchers about the performance of the Medicare Advantage plans, which are sold and run by private insurance companies, but are regulated by the government to provide Medicare benefits.

Enrollment in Medicare Advantage plans — mostly commonly HMOs and PPOs — grew from 5.4 million consumers in 2005 to 16.8 million in 2015, or about 31 percent of the Medicare population, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Some argue the private alternative to the traditional insurance program for seniors is less expensive than the public programs; others say it’s just the opposite. And still others argue that that the government overpays for people enrolled in private plans since traditional Medicare could have covered these patients for less money.  But there had not been broad analyses of the prices actually paid by these plans.

Now, researchers from Stanford Medicine, the Stanford Law School and the Graduate School of Business have conducted one of the largest systematic analyses of the prices that Medicare Advantage plans pay to doctors and hospitals, relative to the prices paid by Medicare fee-for-services or commercial plans.

They found Medicare Advantage plans actually pays 8 percent less to hospitals for their services than traditional Medicare. If you make adjustments for the smaller, cheaper network of hospitals that Advantage plans allow their patients to use, the program pays 5.6 percent less to hospitals than FFS Medicare.

The researchers shared their findings in an online article in Health Affairs this week.

“The surprise is that Medicare Advantage is paying hospitals less,” said lead author Laurence C. Baker, professor of health research and policy at Stanford Medicine and a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. 

“That suggests that in an era when there are real questions about escalating health-care costs, we may want to think more about the potential benefits of Medicare Advantage plans,” Baker said. “It seems they are negotiating better prices.”

Either way, the savings or losses are always going to impact the patient.

“If you’re looking at it as a question of policy, this may be useful,” Baker said. “In the long run, we could pay less taxes to support the Medicare program and maybe people in Medicare Advantage would get to share in those savings.”

The other co-authors of the study are M. Kate Bundorf, professor of health research and policy and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research; Aileen M. Devlin, a research fellow at the Law School and Daniel P. Kessler, a professor in the Law School and the Graduate School of Business.

They used data from Medicare and the Health Care Cost Institute to identify the prices paid for hospital services by Medicare Advantage, FFS Medicare and commercial plans in 2009, 2011 and 2012.

The data included information from Aetna, Humana, and UnitedHealthcare on approximately 40 million individuals who represent all 50 states, accounting for 27 percent of the nonelderly population covered by commercial insurance, and 31 percent of the elderly Medicare Advantage population.

The authors also found the rates paid to hospitals by commercial plans were much higher than those of either Medicare Advantage or FFS Medicare, and that these rates are continuing to grow.

Some of the difference is a result of the much higher prices commercial plans pay for very profitable services such as orthopedics and interventional cardiology.

“However, commercial plans pay higher prices than FFS Medicare for almost all types of admissions in almost all geographic areas,” they wrote. “Thus, our work echoes the growing concerns expressed by several researchers about the consequences of high commercial-plan prices for health spending.”

The importance of detecting high cholesterol in older adults is well understood. But there’s still not enough evidence about lipid disorders in children and adolescents to determine whether they should be routinely screened.

The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force has concluded the evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of screening for lipid disorders in children and adolescents 20 years or younger. The report appears in the Aug. 9 issue of JAMA.

High cholesterol in individuals 20 years or younger can be caused primarily by genetics, known as familial hypercholesterolemia, or from both genetic and environmental factors, such as a high-fat diet.

“We are calling for more research to better understand the benefits and harms of screening and treatment of lipid disorders in children and teens and on the impact these interventions may have on their cardiovascular health as adults,” Task Force vice chair David Grossman said in a news release.

The Task Force is an independent panel of experts who make recommendations about the effectiveness of specific preventive care services such as screenings, counseling services, and preventive medications.

The task force does, however, recommend screening children who are 6 years and older for obesity and making referrals as needed for counseling on weight management. Helping children improve diet and exercise may also improve heart health.

“Cardiovascular health in young people is important and the goal is to prevent the development of cardiovascular disease as people age,” said Douglas K. Owens, a professor of medicine at Stanford and a member of the task force when the guideline was developed. “But many important questions remain unanswered about how to do so.”

Owens, a leader at Stanford Health Policy, said that for now, physicians should use their clinical judgment when counseling young patients on lipid disorders.

“Research on screening and treatment of lipid disorders in children and teens and the impact of these interventions have on cardiovascular disease in adults should be a high priority,” he said. “The USPSTF suggests that all children and teens eat a healthy diet, maintain a normal weight, and engage in physical activity.”

Recent estimates from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey indicate that 7.8 percent of children age 8 to 17 years have elevated levels of total cholesterol (TC) and 7.4 percent of adolescents age 12 to 19 years have elevated LDL-C, or the “bad cholesterol” that can lead to heart disease.

Four editorials related to the recommendation accompanied the report JAMA, including one from physicians from Stanford and UCSF who suggest that the U.S. health-care system should focus more on high-value solutions to major public health concerns such as climate change, poverty, obesity and gun violence.

“The need for clinicians and leaders to focus on sustainability and health-care value has never been greater, and it is likely that policy and community-based interventions will get us there much more quickly than adding more clinic-based interventions that have low value and are wasteful of resources and clinicians’ time,” they wrote.

It’s always great to see the work of one of our researchers shouted out in the New York Times. It’s even better when it becomes the scientific basis of an argument thrown into the mix of a presidential campaign.

Nicholas Kristof asserted in his column on Sunday that when women are involved in the political process and given the capacity to shape public policy, everyone benefits, particularly when it comes to health.

Kristof, who covers human rights, women’s rights, health and global affairs for the Times, wrote in his column:

Put aside your feelings about Hillary Clinton: I understand that many Americans distrust her and would welcome a woman in the White House if it were someone else. But whatever one thinks of Clinton, her nomination is a milestone, and a lesson of history is that when women advance, humanity advances.

Grant Miller of Stanford University found that when states, one by one, gave women the right to vote at the local level in the 19th and early 20th centuries, politicians scrambled to find favor with female voters and allocated more funds to public health and child health. The upshot was that child mortality rates dropped sharply and 20,000 children’s lives were saved each year.

Many of those whose lives were saved were boys. Today, some are still alive, elderly men perhaps disgruntled by the cavalcade of women at the podium in Philadelphia. But they should remember that when women gained power at the voting booth, they used it to benefit boys as well as girls.

Miller, an associate professor of medicine and core faculty member of Stanford Health Policy, first wrote about this issue in the Quarterly Journal of Economics in 2008, arguing that women’s choices appear to emphasize child welfare more than those of men.

He presented evidence on how state-to-state suffrage rights for U.S. women from 1869 to the adoption of the 19th Amendment in 1920, which gave all women the right to vote, helped children benefit from scientific breakthroughs.

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Simple hygienic practices — including hand and food washing, boiling water and milk, refrigerating meat and the renewed emphasis on breastfeeding — were among the most important innovations in the 19th and early 20th centuries to help protect children from often-fatal diseases such typhoid fever, smallpox, measles and scarlet fever.

“Communicating their importance to the American public required large-scale door-to-door hygiene campaigns, which women championed at first through voluntary organizations and then through government,” explained Miller, who is also a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

As women became more and more involved in state and federal politics, Miller found, child mortality declined by 8 to 15 percent, or 20,000 fewer child deaths each year.

“Public health historians clearly link the success of hygiene campaigns to the rising influence of women,” Miller wrote, citing examples with data and graphs.

That women have been — and can be — so influential seems like a no-brainer, but it’s nice to have the science to back it up.

The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force has adopted decision modeling as one of its methods in developing its evidence-based recommendations about preventive health care.

The USPSTF has developed a framework that will help the independent body of medical experts determine when to use modeling as a complementary, quantitative approach as they deliberate on their recommendations for clinical practice and medical policy. 

“This is methodologically important because it describes a framework the Task Force can use to assess when decision models may aid in the development of recommendations,” said Douglas K. Owens, who led the decision-modeling group at the USPSTF.

Owens, of the VA Palo Alto Health Care System, and a professor of medicine at Stanford Medicine and a leader at Stanford Health Policy, said the task force spent three years developing the framework.

“Modeling can be a very useful tool to complement empiric studies and can enable you to answer questions that you couldn’t otherwise answer,” he said. “For example, what’s the implication of starting mammography screening at 40 versus 50, or colorectal cancer screenings at 50 versus 45? How might a preventive intervention perform in a population that is slightly different from the ones that have been studied?”

Modeling provides insights about how benefits and harms of an intervention may vary in such circumstances, he said.

The framework for using modeling was described in the July 5, 2016, online edition of the Annals of Internal Medicine, the journal of the American College of Physicians.

The article emphasizes how decision modeling can be useful in answering important medical questions that have not been addressed in clinical trials.

“Decision models are a formal methodological approach for simulating the effects of different interventions — such as screening and treatment — on health outcomes,” the authors write. “Unlike epidemiologic models that project the course of disease or seek to make inferences about the cause of disease, decision models assess the benefits and harms of intervention strategies by examining the effect of specific interventions.”

The USPSTF has used decision models in the development of recommendations for screening colorectal, breast, cervical, and lung cancer. It’s also used modeling in recommendations for use of aspirin to prevent cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer.

For these services, decision models allowed the USPSTF to consider the lifetime effect of different screening programs in specific populations and at various ages.

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For example, the effect of HIV screening on mortality has not been directly assessed in clinical trials. But there is evidence that HIV can be diagnosed accurately and that early treatment reduces mortality and HIV transmission.

In contrast, a recent assessment of screening for thyroid dysfunction found that the evidence was insufficient to assess benefits and harms, so this topic would not be a candidate for modeling.

Models are also useful for weighing the harms and benefits of an intervention. Clinical studies have shown, for example, that aspirin can prevent non-fatal heart attacks and strokes. But it also causes intracranial and gastrointestinal bleeding.

“How do you weigh these different benefits and harms? Modeling can be very useful in understanding the tradeoff between benefits and harms,” Owens said.

The Task Force is a leader in evidence-based methods for guideline development, Owens noted. “I hope this work will also be useful to the broader community that is developing clinical guidelines.”

A study of health insurance claims showed that patients undergoing 11 of the most common types of surgery were at an increased risk of becoming chronic users of opioid painkillers, according to researchers at the Stanford University School of Medicine.

But the slight overall increase in risk of 0.5 percent in no way suggests that patients should skip surgery over concern of becoming addicted to opioids, the study said. Instead, it’s a reminder that surgeons and physicians should closely monitor patients’ use of opioids after surgery — even patients with no history of using the pain-relieving drugs — and use alternate methods of pain control whenever possible.

The study was published July 11 in JAMA Internal Medicine.

“For a lot of surgeries there is a higher chance of getting hooked on painkillers,” said the study’s lead author, Eric Sun, MD, PhD, a Stanford Health Policy researcher and instructor in anesthesiology at Stanford. Sean Mackey, MD/PhD, professor of anesthesiology, is the senior author of the study and SHP's Laurence Baker was another co-author of the study.

Patients who had knee surgery had the largest risk, as they were roughly five times more likely than a control group of nonsurgical patients to end up using opioids chronically, followed by those undergoing gall bladder surgery, whose risk was three-and-a-half times greater than those in the control group.

“We also found an increased risk among women following cesarean section, which was somewhat concerning since it is a very common procedure,” adding that the risk was 28 percent higher than among the control group, Sun said.

Other factors that contributed to an increased risk for chronic opioid use included being male, elderly, taking antidepressants or abusing drugs.

The opioid abuse epidemic

Since prescription painkillers became cheap and plentiful in the mid-1990s, drug overdose death rates in the United States have more than tripled, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Seventy-eight Americans die every day from an opioid overdose, it reported.

Previous studies have shown increased risks of chronic opioid use post-surgery, but unlike past studies, Sun and colleagues set out to examine patients who hadn’t received prescriptions for opioids for at least one year prior to surgery. Among the opioid prescription drugs examined in the study were hydrocodone, oxycodone and fentanyl — the drug responsible for the recent accidental overdose death of legendary musician Prince.

The researchers examined health claims from 641,941 privately insured patients between the ages of 18 and 64 who had not filled an opioid prescription in the year prior to surgery, then compared them with about 18 million nonsurgical patients, who also hadn’t received opioid prescriptions for at least a year. The claims were filed between 2001 and 2013 and provided by Marketscan, a database of 35 million beneficiaries.

Except for the minor procedures known to be somewhat pain-free, such as a cataract surgery and laparoscopic appendectomy, all 11 types of surgery were associated with an increased risk of chronic opioid use, the study said.

Other pain-control measures

“The message isn’t that you shouldn’t have surgery,” Sun said. “Rather, there are things that anesthesiologists can do to reduce the risk by finding other ways of controlling the pain and using replacements for opioids when possible.”

Sun said he and his colleagues in surgery and anesthesia at Stanford try to use regional anesthetics when possible to reduce the need for opioids post-surgery. He added that patients should also be encouraged to use pain-management alternatives such as Tylenol following surgery.

Sun is featured in this CBS news story:

 

“Even when taken exactly as prescribed, opioids carry significant risks and side effects,” said study co-author Beth Darnall, PhD, clinical associate professor of anesthesiology and author of the book Less Pain, Fewer Pills: Avoid the Dangers of Prescription Opioids and Gain Control over Chronic Pain. “Ideally, opioids are avoided in treating chronic pain, and pain treatment should emphasize comprehensive care, including physical therapy, pain psychology and self-management strategies.”

As a pain psychologist and clinician-scientist, Darnall emphasizes alternate methods of pain management based on evidence-based techniques that can help calm the nervous system such as diaphragmatic breathing, progressive muscle relaxation and mindful meditation.

She is studying the use of a pain psychology class at Stanford for women undergoing surgery for breast cancer called “My Surgical Success” designed to help patients develop a personalized pain-management plan to control the anxiety associated with anticipating surgical pain.

“It turns out that a lot of chronic pain develops from surgery, and pre-surgical pain ‘catastrophizing’ is a major risk factor for having a lot of pain,” Darnall said. “We hope that by optimizing patients’ psychology — and giving them skills to calm their own nervous system — they will have less pain after surgery, need fewer opioids and recover quicker.”

The research was funded by a grant from the Foundation for Anesthesia Education and Research and the Anesthesia Quality Institute.

Stanford’s Department of Anesthesiology also supported the work.

 

Tracie White is a science writer for the medical school’s Office of Communication & Public Affairs. Email her at tracie.white@stanford.edu.

The Asia Health Policy Program at Stanford’s Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, in collaboration with scholars from Stanford Health Policy's Center on Demography and Economics of Health and Aging, the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, and the Next World Program, is soliciting papers for the third annual workshop on the economics of ageing titled Financing Longevity: The Economics of Pensions, Health Insurance, Long-term Care and Disability Insurance held at Stanford from April 24-25, 2017, and for a related special issue of the Journal of the Economics of Ageing.

The triumph of longevity can pose a challenge to the fiscal integrity of public and private pension systems and other social support programs disproportionately used by older adults. High-income countries offer lessons – frequently cautionary tales – for low- and middle-income countries about how to design social protection programs to be sustainable in the face of population ageing. Technological change and income inequality interact with population ageing to threaten the sustainability and perceived fairness of conventional financing for many social programs. Promoting longer working lives and savings for retirement are obvious policy priorities; but in many cases the fiscal challenges are even more acute for other social programs, such as insurance systems for medical care, long-term care, and disability. Reform of entitlement programs is also often politically difficult, further highlighting how important it is for developing countries putting in place comprehensive social security systems to take account of the macroeconomic implications of population ageing.

The objective of the workshop is to explore the economics of ageing from the perspective of sustainable financing for longer lives. The workshop will bring together researchers to present recent empirical and theoretical research on the economics of ageing with special (yet not exclusive) foci on the following topics:

• Public and private roles in savings and retirement security
• Living and working in an Age of Longevity: Lessons for Finance
• Defined benefit, defined contribution, and innovations in design of pension programs
• Intergenerational and equity implications of different financing mechanisms for pensions and social insurance
• The impact of population aging on health insurance financing
• Economic incentives of long-term care insurance and disability insurance systems
• Precautionary savings and social protection system generosity
• Elderly cognitive function and financial planning
• Evaluation of policies aimed at increasing health and productivity of older adults
• Population ageing and financing economic growth
• Tax policies’ implications for capital deepening and investment in human capital
• The relationship between population age structure and capital market returns
• Evidence on policies designed to address disparities – gender, ethnic/racial, inter-regional, urban/rural – in old-age support
• The political economy of reforming pension systems as well as health, long-term care and disability insurance programs

Submission for the workshop

Interested authors are invited to submit a 1-page abstract by Sept. 30, 2016, to Karen Eggleston at karene@stanford.edu. The authors of accepted abstracts will be notified by Oct. 15, 2016, and completed draft papers will be expected by April 1, 2017.

Economy-class travel and accommodation costs for one author of each accepted paper will be covered by the organizers.

Invited authors are expected to submit their paper to the Journal of the Economics of Ageing. A selection of these papers will (assuming successful completion of the review process) be published in a special issue.

Submission to the special issue

Authors (also those interested who are not attending the workshop) are invited to submit papers for the special issue in the Journal of the Economics of Ageing by Aug. 1, 2017. Submissions should be made online. Please select article type “SI Financing Longevity.”

About the Next World Program

The Next World Program is a joint initiative of Harvard University’s Program on the Global Demography of Aging, the WDA Forum, Stanford’s Asia Health Policy Program, and Fudan University’s Working Group on Comparative Ageing Societies. These institutions organize an annual workshop and a special issue in the Journal of the Economics of Ageing on an important economic theme related to ageing societies.

More information can be found in the PDF below.

Studying the microorganisms that live in our gut is a relatively new field, one that has only really taken off in the last decade. In fact, it is estimated that half of the microbes that live in and around our GI track have yet to be discovered.

“This means there is a huge amount of this dark matter within us,” said Ami S. Bhatt, an assistant professor of medicine and genetics who runs the Bhatt Lab at the Stanford School of Medicine. The lab is devoted to exploiting disease vulnerabilities by cataloguing the human microbiome, the trillions of microbes living in and on our bodies.

“I think if we fast-forward to the impact of some these findings in 10 years, we’re going to learn that modifying the microbiota is a potent way to modulate health,” Bhatt said. “Humans are not only made up of human cells, but are a complex mixture of human cells and the microbes that live within us and among us — and these microorganisms are as critical to our well-being as we are to theirs.”

Bhatt, along with key collaborators at the University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, and the INDEPTH research consortium, now intends to take this research to Africa.

She is this year’s winner of the of the Rosenkranz Prize for Health Care Research in Developing Countries, awarded by Stanford Health Policy to promising young Stanford researchers who are investigating ways to improve health care in developing countries.

The $100,000 prize is targeted at Stanford’s emerging researchers who are dedicated to improving health care in poorer parts of the world, but may lack the financial resources.

Bhatt, MD, PhD, intends to take the prize money to execute the first multi-country microbiome research project focused on non-communicable disease risk in Africa. The project intends to explore the relationship between the gut microbiome composition and body mass index (BMI) in patients who are either severely malnourished or obese.

“As a rapidly developing continent with extremes of resource access, Africa is simultaneously faced with challenges relating to the extremes of metabolic status,” Bhatt wrote in her Rosenkranz project proposal. The Bay Area native, who is also the director of global oncology at Stanford, came to the School of Medicine in 2014 to focus on how changes in the microbiome are associated with cancer.

In this new project, Bhatt and members of her lab will team up with colleagues in Africa, first in South Africa, and then in Ghana, Burkina Faso, and Kenya. They will leverage the infrastructure already in place at the INDEPTH Network of researchers, using an existing cohort of 12,000 patients at within those four countries. The patients have already consented to be involved in DNA testing and have given blood and urine specimens.

Identifying alterations of the microbiome that are associated with severe malnutrition or obesity could pave the way for interventions that may mitigate the severity or prevalence of these disorders, Bhatt said.

“These organisms are critical to our health in that they are in a delicate balance with one another and their human hosts,” she said. “Alterations in the microbiome are associated with various diseases — but have mostly been studied in Western populations. Unfortunately, little is known about the generalizability of these findings to low- and middle-income countries – where most of the world’s population lives.”

Bhatt said that as Africa rapidly continues to develop, the continent is simultaneous faced with challenges relating to extreme weight gain and loss. While the wealthy are facing obesity and its associated disease such as stroke, heart failure and diabetes, many people are still faced with issues related to food insecurity, hunger and malnutrition.

The research, she hopes, could lead to aggressive behavioral, dietary and lifestyle modifications targeted at maintaining healthy BMI in at-risk individuals.

Video by Ankur Bhatt

Grant Miller, an associate professor of medicine and core faculty member at Stanford Health Policy who chaired the Rosenkranz Prize committee this year, believes Bhatt’s research could eventually break new ground.

“The entire Rosenkranz Prize selection committee was highly impressed with Ami and the innovation of her project,” Miller said. “Ami’s work on the human microbiome in the extremes of nutritional status in developing countries — including its potential link to obesity, an emerging challenge in low income countries — is potentially path-breaking.”

The award’s namesake, George Rosenkranz, first synthesized cortisone in 1951, and later progestin, the active ingredient in oral birth control pills. He went on to establish the Mexican National Institute for Genomic Medicine, and his family created the Rosenkranz Prize in 2009.

The award embodies Dr. Rosenkranz’s belief that young scientists hold the curiosity and drive necessary to find alternative solutions to longstanding health-care dilemmas.

The number of uninsured Americans has dropped to a historic 9.1 percent since the enactment of the Affordable Care Act six years ago.

According to the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, an estimated 20 million people have gained health insurance coverage between the passage of the law in 2010 and March of this year.

“Our country has made undeniable and historic strides thanks to the Affordable Care Act,” HHS Secretary Sylvia M. Burwell said earlier this month, noting that for the first time in our history, fewer than one in 10 Americans lacked health insurance.

“Our country ought to be proud of how far we’ve come and where we’re going.”

But 19 states still refuse to expand Medicaid for the poorest of the uninsured. And many low- and middle-income families still find that participating in state exchanges is out of their reach or that the process is just too complex.

Stanford health policy experts, state government officials, mobile health and private health-care executives recently gathered on campus to look at the impact of the Affordable Care Act, six years after its adoption.

The consensus was the Act has done more to grant access to health care for Americans than any other government program since Medicaid was adopted in 1965 to help the poor, and Medicare to subsidize the elderly in 1985.

Yet the law’s initial technical missteps, continuing red tape and opposing provisions — as well as the lack of support by so many states and members of Congress — continue to undermine the Act.

“As most of you know, the heath-care sector in the U.S. is large and extremely complex,” said Mark Duggan, director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, which sponsored the conference. He said total health-care spending in 2016 would amount to $3.4 trillion, an average of more than $10,000 per person.

Yet one-third of those health-care costs go to waste, said Thomas Goetz, co-founder and CEO of the health-care startup Iodine, which uses apps and data visualization to better inform consumers about their health-care and drug choices.

Goetz told the audience of faculty and students that medication — for depression and anxiety, chronic pain and autoimmune diseases — are typically ineffective up to 50 percent of the time.

“The solution isn’t more randomized clinical trials,” said Goetz, whose company recently launched an app that allows users to take a depression test and decide which antidepressant might work best for them. “The goal is to look at patients as consumers and catalysts — versus patients as passive.”

But has the ACA been effective? It seems the reviews are still mixed.

Kate Bundorf, associate professor of health research and policy at the School of Medicine, noted that this an exciting time for policymakers because the evidence on the effects of the Affordable Care Act is starting to emerge.

She said the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the coverage provisions of the ACA increased government spending by $110 billion and reduced the number of uninsured by 22 million in 2016.

While many analysts were concerned that employers might drop health insurance for workers in response to the subsidies for coverage available through the exchanges, employment-based coverage has remained stable.

Whether the ACA has slowed the rate of growth of health-care spending is still up for debate.

While spending did slow down around the time of the Act’s implementation, it is difficult to determine whether the lag was caused by the ACA’s provisions or other factors such as the recession or increases in cost-sharing for private insurance. And the most recent estimates indicate the rates of growth in spending have begun to increase, possibly signaling a return to historical levels, Bundorf said.

“The big surprise was that not all states expanded Medicaid, with the Court ruling allowing states to opt out,” said Bundorf, who is also a senior SIEPR fellow.

The Supreme Court ruled in 2012 that states could decide individually whether to expand the Medicaid insurance program for the poor.

John Bertko, chief actuary for California’s health exchange, Covered California, describes the Affordable Care Act “as actuarial puzzle to work on every day.”

He should know. Bertko worked on the Obamacare actuarial tables for three years.

One of the most significant changes to the American health-insurance system, he said, are those 32 states that expanded Medicaid under the the ACA. Americans who earn less than 138 percent of the federal poverty level now qualified for Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program.

Just as the Medicaid expansion went into effect in 2014, a provision of ACA also increased payments for primary care physicians who accepted Medicaid. However, for budgetary reasons, those increased payments only lasted for two years.

“So you have this huge expansion of the number of people qualifying for Medicaid and at the same time payments for suppliers dropped down,” he said. “So lots of Medicaid card carriers were left floating around looking for providers.”

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“When you insure people, you’re going to increase costs and the costs have gone up,” said Bhattacharya, a core faculty member of Stanford Health Policy and senior fellow at SIEPR and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

“The total expenditure on the poor, the costs have gone up,” Bhattacharya said. He added here has been no change in the mortality rate of Americans since adoption of the Act. “It’s difficult to find mortality benefits from the social benefits.

Larry Levitt, senior vice president for special initiatives at the Kaiser Family Foundation, reminded the audience the main goal of the ACA was to expand insurance coverage for Americans.

“And it certainly has been a success at doing that,” he said.

Still, Levitt added, roughly 30 million non-elderly Americans remain uninsured. And many of those who are insured are opting for high-deductible plans to keep their monthly premiums down.

“Twenty percent of people who are insured say they have a problem paying their medical bills because they don’t have a lot of money in the bank and have large deductibles,” he said.

If the other states would follow the lead of the top 10 states leading the way on ACA enrollment, Levitt said, there would be a great improvement overall.

Bundorf said the so-called Cadillac Tax would raise some revenue and the incentive to create more employee-sponsored insurance plans.

But the highly contentious levy that was supposed to go into effect in 2018 has bene delayed to 2020 while Congress, the IRS, unions and big business debate its fairness.

The provision of Obamacare would impose a 40 percent excise tax on the portion of most employer-sponsored health coverage that exceed $10,200 a year and $27,500 for families. The goal is to control the growth of health-care spending by eliminating pricier benefit plans and curtail excessive health-care use.

“The problem with the Cadillac Tax is that, with time, it becomes the Chevy tax,” said Levitt. “I don’t think it will ever go into effect — but it will precipitate something that can replace it.”

Triage nurses typically assign patients to emergency room doctors who are on call or working a shift. But what if the doctors themselves determine whom among them is better suited to take on the next patient?

Classic economic theory predicts “moral hazard” in teams, which means one member behaves inefficiently because in the end someone else will pay the consequences. Yet many successful organizations promote teamwork.

So how does this puzzle relate to health care?

This is the question that Assistant Professor of Medicine David Chan, a core faculty member at Stanford Health Policy, tackles in his new study in the Journal of Political Economy.

Emergency departments (ED) nationwide cost a combined $136 billion to run each year, significantly impacting the growing health-care sector of the U.S. economy. Visits to the emergency rooms are increasing despite the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, causing them to be overcrowded and underfunded.

Chan studied two organizational models: one in which physicians are assigned patients in a nurse-managed system and one in which the doctors divide patients among themselves in a self-managed system.

“I find evidence that physicians in the same location have better information about each other and that, in the self-managed system, they use this information to assign patients,” Chan writes.

He said that by simply allowing physicians to choose patients, a self-managed system reduces emergency room lengths of stay by 11-15 percent, relative to the nurse-managed system.

“This effect occurs primarily by reducing a `foot-dragging’ moral hazard, in which physicians delay patient discharge to forestall new work,” Chan writes. A triage nurse is often in another room and has a difficult time observing true physician workload, whereas peer physicians who work together can.

“So, for example, if there are two physicians working at a time when there are a whole bunch of patients in the waiting room, then each physician knows that the minute he discharges a patient, he is more likely to get another one,” Chan said in an interview. This might lead the physician to dilly-dally on the release of that patient, knowing that he’ll immediately be signed another before he gets a break.

However, two physicians who can observe how busy the other one truly is will be less likely to stall, even if they want to avoid new patients.

Chan studied a large, academic emergency room that treated 380,699 patients over a six-year period. He looked at length of stay, measuring each physician’s individual contribution. He also observed patient demographics and used the Emergency Severity Index, an ED triage algorithm based on a patient’s pain level, mental status, vital signs and medical condition.

Besides measuring the effect of the self-managed system in this large hospital, Chan combined evidence to support the hypothesis that teamwork improves outcomes because of mutual management with better information.

He found that the only difference in outcomes between the two organizational systems was foot-dragging. Clinical outcomes or even the number of tests ordered were about the same under a self-managed or nurse-managed system.

Moreover, the foot-dragging behavior grows as physicians may anticipate future work by the number of patients in the waiting room, even if they end up seeing the same number of patients.

Finally, physicians refrain from this behavior when being watched by another physician in the same location, even in the nurse-managed system, when that other physician does not otherwise have any role in the physician’s patient care.

“I think the biggest takeaway is that such efficiency gains can be widespread in health care, particularly because there is so much at stake hidden behind information in patient care that is not transparent,” Chan said.

“Even if we don’t fully anticipate all of these gains, we could still achieve a lot by tinkering and using these changes as natural experiments to figure out what works and what doesn’t,” Chan said. “We can further use these results, particularly the evidence pointing at a mechanism, to think of what other innovations might work.”