This issue of CHP/PCOR's quarterly newsletter covers news and developments at the centers for the fall quarter 2003.

The issue features articles about a handful of health policy talks sponsored by the centers in the fall quarter; a novel "interactive textbook" on clinical symptom research; the recent arrival from China of the second fellow for CHP/PCOR's China-U.S. Health and Aging Research Training Program; a roundup of the 25th annual conference of the Society for Medical Decision Making; and a summary of last quarter's media coverage highlighting the centers' research work.

This paper investigates trends in disability in the U.S. population, particularly among people under age fifty. Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30-49. We suggest some possible explanations for rising disability levels, such as obesity, technological advances in medicine, and changing disability insurance laws. Obesity and its attendant disorders seem particularly associated with these trends, although the data are not definitive. Whatever its sources, rising disability among the young could have adverse consequences for public programs such as disability insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid.

Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we examine the relationship between nutritional status, poverty, and food insecurity for household members of various ages. Our most striking result is that, while poverty is predictive of poor nutrition among preschool children, food insecurity does not provide any additional predictive power for this age group. Among school age children, neither poverty nor food insecurity is associated with nutritional outcomes, while among adults and the elderly, both food insecurity and poverty are predictive. These results suggest that researchers should be cautious about assuming connections between food insecurity and nutritional outcomes, particularly among children.

Elderly Floridians use much more medical care and have much lower mortality rates than do their peers in other regions of the country. After demographic and other variables are controlled for, the differential between Florida and the rest of the United States is 25 percent for utilization and 10 percent for mortality among whites ages 65-84. This paper summarizes the facts about Floridian exceptionalism and reviews various possible explanations: physician inducement of utilization, differences in preferences, selective migration into and out of the state, climate, and social interactions, among others. Readers are invited to suggest their own explanations and their policy recommendations, if any.

Studies from the early 1990s have documented greater intensity of treatment for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in the United States compared with Canada, with little difference in health outcomes. Little is known about whether treatments and outcomes are changing differently over time in the two countries, and whether the differences vary with patient age. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of trends in cardiac procedure use, mortality, and recurrent AMI for patients 65 years or older hospitalized with AMI in the United States and Quebec. We examined Medicare claims and enrollment data from the United States (1.5 million) and provincial claims data from Quebec (35,000) between 1988 and 1994. Results Use of cardiac procedures grew more rapidly between 1988 and 1994 in the United States, particularly for patients 75 years or older; unlike in Quebec, these cardiac procedures were performed soon after AMI. Both countries experienced significant declines in 1-year mortality: the decline averaged 1.27% points per year in the United States and 1.05% points in Quebec (P = ns). For AMI patients 75 years or older, 30-day and 1-year mortality declined approximately twice as rapidly in the United States as in Quebec (P 0.01). The decline in mortality in the United States relative to Canada was significantly greater among patients 75 years or older but not among those age 65 to 74 years. Readmission rates with recurrent AMI were almost unchanged. Conclusions Over time, the use of cardiac procedures in elderly patients with AMI has risen more rapidly in the United States than in Quebec. These differences in procedure trends were associated with reductions in overall long-term AMI mortality in both countries. Key words: Acute myocardial infarction; elderly; mortality; catheterization; angioplasty; coronary artery bypass surgery; population studies; trend analysis

CONTEXT: It is unknown whether white and black Medicare beneficiaries have different rates of cardiac procedure utilization or long-term survival after cardiac arrest.

METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 5948 elderly Medicare beneficiaries (5429 white and 519 black) were identified who survived to hospital discharge between 1990 and 1999 after admission for cardiac arrest. Demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical information about these patients was obtained from Medicare administrative files, the US census, and the American Hospital Association's annual institutional survey. A Cox proportional hazard model that included demographic and clinical predictors indicated a hazard ratio for mortality of 1.30 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.55) for blacks aged 66 to 74 years compared with whites of the same age. The addition of cardiac procedures to this model lowered the hazard ratio for blacks to 1.23 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.46). In analyses stratified by race, implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) had a mortality hazard ratio of 0.53 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.62) for white patients and 0.50 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.91) for black patients. Logistic regression models that compared procedure rates between races indicated odds ratios for blacks aged 66 to 74 years of 0.58 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.94) to receive an ICD and 0.50 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.75) to receive either revascularization or an ICD.

CONCLUSIONS: There is racial disparity in long-term mortality among elderly cardiac arrest survivors. Both black and white patients benefited from ICD implantation, but blacks were less likely to undergo this potentially life-saving procedure. Lower rates of cardiac procedures may explain in part the lower survival rates among black patients.

Two studies examined age differences in recall and recognition memory for positive, negative, and neutral stimuli. In Study 1, younger, middle-aged, and older adults were shown images on a computer screen and, after a distraction task, were asked first to recall as many as they could and then to identify previously shown images from a set of old and new ones. The relative number of negative images compared with positive and neutral images recalled decreased with each successively older age group. Recognition memory showed a similar decrease with age in the relative memory advantage for negative pictures. In Study 2, the largest age differences in recall and recognition accuracy were also for the negative images. Findings are consistent with socioemotional selectivity theory, which posits greater investment in emotion regulation with age.

One in eight Americans today is over the age of 65, and the proportion will increase dramatically in the future. The aging of the population has begun to drive tax and budget decisions and the federal policy agenda, as policy makers and voters look ahead to enormous demands on the health and income security programs. Indeed, it is projected that Medicare and Social Security will constitute nearly half the federal budget in the year 2030, when one in five Americans will be over 65. In Policies for an Aging Society, Stuart H. Altman and David I. Shactman have gathered experts in public and health policy, economics, law, and management to identify the salient issues and explore realistic options. From positions ranging from liberal to conservative, the contributors take a wide view of the philosophical, economic, and programmatic aspects of the social protection programs for elderly Americans. They ask broad questions and propose integrated conceptions of how our society can best provide for the needs of its aging population.

BACKGROUND: Patients with end-stage renal disease are known to have decreased survival after myocardial infarction, but the association of less severe renal dysfunction with survival after myocardial infarction is unknown.

OBJECTIVES: To determine how patients with renal insufficiency are treated during hospitalization for myocardial infarction and to determine the association of renal insufficiency with survival after myocardial infarction.

DESIGN: Cohort study.

SETTING: All nongovernment hospitals in the United States.

PATIENTS: 130 099 elderly patients with myocardial infarction hospitalized between April 1994 and July 1995.

MEASUREMENTS: Patients were categorized according to initial serum creatinine level: no renal insufficiency (creatinine level < 1.5 mg/dL [<132 micromol/L]; n = 82 455), mild renal insufficiency (creatinine level, 1.5 to 2.4 mg/dL [132 to 212 micromol/L]; n = 36 756), or moderate renal insufficiency (creatinine level, 2.5 to 3.9 mg/dL [221 to 345 micromol/L]; n = 10 888). Vital status up to 1 year after discharge was obtained from Social Security records.

RESULTS: Compared with patients with no renal insufficiency, patients with moderate renal insufficiency were less likely to receive aspirin, beta-blockers, thrombolytic therapy, angiography, and angioplasty during hospitalization. One-year mortality was 24% in patients with no renal insufficiency, 46% in patients with mild renal insufficiency, and 66% in patients with moderate renal insufficiency (P < 0.001). After adjustment for patient and treatment characteristics, mild (hazard ratio, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.63 to 1.73]) and moderate (hazard ratio, 2.35 [CI, 2.26 to 2.45]) renal insufficiency were associated with substantially elevated risk for death during the first month of follow-up. This increased mortality risk continued until 6 months after myocardial infarction.

CONCLUSIONS: Renal insufficiency was an independent risk factor for death in elderly patients after myocardial infarction. Targeted interventions may be needed to improve treatment for this high-risk population.

Survival of patients who sustain a ventricular arrhythmia is poor but slowly improving due to in-hospital use of medications and ICDs. However, this more intensive hospital treatment has been accompanied by increased hospital expenditures, finds this study. The researchers analyzed Medicare databases from 1985 to 1995 to identify elderly patients hospitalized with ventricular arrhythmias (index admission). They created a longitudinal patient profile by linking the index hospital admission with all earlier and subsequent admissions and with death records.

During this time, about 85,000 elderly patients went to U.S. emergency departments (EDs) with ventricular arrhythmias each year. Only about 20,000 of these patients lived to be admitted to the hospital from the ED, and then about 14 percent died within the first day. From 1987 to 1995, the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients and the use of coronary angioplasty and bypass graft surgery for these patients were largely unchanged. However, the use of electrophysiology studies (EPS) grew from 3 to 22 percent and use of ICDs increased from 1 to 13 percent. A growing number of patients survived, particularly in the medium term, with 1-year survival rates increasing from 53 percent in 1987 to 58 percent in 1994, or half a percentage point each year.

At the same time, hospital expenditures rose 8 percent per year, primarily because of the increased use of EPS and ICD procedures. By 1993, Medicare was reimbursing hospitals an average of $15,627 for care for each patient during the year after admission for ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation. During the subsequent year, another $14,739 on average was spent for these patients. The increased intensity of care for these patients led to a rise in the average expenditure per patient of about $1,000 per year (in 1993 dollars) from 1987 to 1995.