OBJECTIVE: To discuss and quantify the incentives that Medicare managed care plans have to avoid (through selective enrollment or disenrollment) people who are at risk for very high costs, focusing on Medicare beneficiaries in the last year of life-a group that accounts for more than one-quarter of Medicare's annual expenditures.

DATA SOURCE: Medicare administrative claims for 1994 and 1995.

STUDY DESIGN: We calculated the payment a plan would have received under three risk-adjustment systems for each beneficiary in our 1995 sample based on his or her age, gender, county of residence, original reason for Medicare entitlement, and principal inpatient diagnoses received during any hospital stays in 1994. We compared these amounts to the actual costs incurred by those beneficiaries. We then looked for clinical categories that were predictive of costs, including costs in a beneficiary's last year of life, not accounted for by the risk adjusters.

DATA EXTRACTION METHODS: The analyses were conducted using claims for a 5 percent random sample of Medicare beneficiaries who died in 1995 and a matched group of survivors.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Medicare is currently implementing the Principal Inpatient Diagnostic Cost Groups (PIP-DCG) risk adjustment payment system to address the problem of risk selection in the Medicare+Choice program. We quantify the strong financial disincentives to enroll terminally ill beneficiaries that plans still have under this risk adjustment system. We also show that up to one-third of the selection observed between Medicare HMOs and the traditional fee-for-service system could be due to differential enrollment of decedents. A risk adjustment system that incorporated more of the available diagnostic information would attenuate this disincentive; however, plans could still use clinical information (not included in the risk adjustment scheme) to identify beneficiaries whose expected costs exceed expected payments.

CONCLUSIONS: More disaggregated prospective risk adjustment methods and alternative payment systems that compensate plans for delivering care to certain classes of patients should be considered to ensure access to high-quality managed care for all beneficiaries.

Using data from a survey of deaths of children less than 5 years old conducted in 1997 in a county in Shaanxi Province, China, this paper examines gender differences in child survival in contemporary rural China. First, excess female child mortality in the county in 1994-96 is described, followed by an analysis of the mechanisms whereby the excess mortality takes place, and the underlying social, economic and cultural factors behind it. Excess female child mortality in this county is probably caused primarily by discrimination against girls in curative health care rather than in preventive health care or food and nutrition. Although discrimination occurs in all kinds of families and communities, discrimination itself is highly selective, and is primarily against girls with some specific characteristics. It is argued that the excess mortality of girls is caused fundamentally by the strong son preference in traditional Chinese culture, but exacerbated by the government-guided family planning programme and regulations. This suggests that it is crucial to raise the status of girls within the family and community so as to mitigate the pressures to discriminate against girls in China's low fertility regime. Finally, the possible policy options to improve female child survival in contemporary rural China are discussed.

The goal of this study was to estimate the incidence of Parkinson's disease by age, gender, and ethnicity. Newly diagnosed Parkinson's disease cases in 1994-1995 were identified among members of the Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program of Northern California, a large health maintenance organization. Each case met modified standardized criteria/Hughes diagnostic criteria as applied by a movement disorder specialist. Incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated using the Kaiser Permanente membership information as the denominator and adjusted for age and/or gender using the direct method of standardization. A total of 588 newly diagnosed (incident) cases of Parkinson's disease were identified, which gave an overall annualized age- and gender-adjusted incidence rate of 13.4 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI): 11.4, 15.5). The incidence rapidly increased over the age of 60 years, with only 4% of the cases being under the age of 50 years. The rate for men (19.0 per 100,000, 95% CI: 16.1, 21.8) was 91% higher than that for women (9.9 per 100,000, 95% CI: 7.6, 12.2). The age- and gender-adjusted rate per 100,000 was highest among Hispanics (16.6, 95% CI: 12.0, 21.3), followed by non-Hispanic Whites (13.6, 95% CI: 11.5, 15.7), Asians (11.3, 95% CI: 7.2, 15.3), and Blacks (10.2, 95% CI: 6.4, 14.0). These data suggest that the incidence of Parkinson's disease varies by race/ethnicity.

Purpose: C-reactive protein (CRP), Chlamydia pneumonia, Helicobacter pylori, and cytomegalovirus (CMV) have each been associated with atherosclerosis. We assessed how infection and CRP related to risk for subsequent myocardial infarction (MI).

Methods: Using a nested case-control design, we assessed how these factors independently and jointly affected risk for myocardial infarction (MI). Cases of first MI (N = 121) were identified from among participants in a multiphasic health check-up cohort. Controls without MI (N = 204) were matched to cases by gender, age, race, and date of serum collection. Sera collected at enrollment were tested for antibodies to infection and for CRP.

Results: In multivariate analysis (mean follow-up of 5.1 years), CRP was associated with MI only in subjects older than 51 years (p = 0.004). Although H. pylori infection increased risk for MI, this association was modest (OR = 1.90, 95% CI = 0.97-3.71) and was not evident in non-smokers or when adjusted for education. No association between C. pneumoniae or cytomegalovirus and MI was observed, nor was the association between CRP and MI explained by these infections.

Conclusions: Elevated CRP is a risk factor for subsequent MI in older individuals. The relationship between Hp and MI may be due to confounding or co-linearity with socioeconomic status.

Patients requiring bilateral total knee arthroplasties may have both joints replaced simultaneously during one hospitalization (one-stage) or during two separate hospitalizations (two-stage). The goals of the current study were to retrospectively analyze discharge patterns for 91 patients who had one-stage bilateral total knee arthroplasties and 32 patients who had two-stage surgeries, and to quantify their in-hospital costs and their costs if the patients were discharged from the hospital to an inpatient unit. Patients having one-stage and two-stage surgery were similar in age, gender, severity of illness (as measured by the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status score), principal diagnosis, and ethnicity. Using a microcosting approach, the authors found that the average in-hospital costs for one-stage total knee arthroplasty (27,468 US dollars) were significantly lower (by 24%) than for two-stage total knee arthroplasty. However, 38% of patients who had the one-stage bilateral total knee arthroplasties were admitted to an acute rehabilitation unit, which had a mean cost of 6469 US dollars and length of stay of 9 days. In contrast, none of the patients who had the two-stage procedure required acute rehabilitation. Patients who had the two-stage procedure were discharged directly home (or with home health services) 42% of the time, versus 21% for patients who had the one-stage procedure. Patients from both groups were discharged to a skilled nursing facility approximately (1/2) of the time, accruing similar costs. Economic analyses of the one-stage procedure need to consider that these patients will require increased use of acute inpatient rehabilitation after hospital discharge.

The world of Eli Ginzberg can readily be thought of as a triptych-a career in three parts. In his early years, Ginzberg's work was dedicated to understanding the history of economics, from Adam Smith to C. Wesley Mitchell, and placing that understanding in what might well be considered economic ethnography. His studies took him on travels from Wales in the United Kingdom to California in the United States. For example, the poignant account of Welsh miners in an era of economic depression and technological change remains a landmark work. His report of a cross country trip taken in the first year of the New Deal provides insight and evaluation that can scarcely be captured in present-day writings.

The second period of his career corresponds to Ginzberg's increasing involvement in the practice of economics. He deals with issues related to manpower allocation, employment shifts, and gender and racial changes in the workforce. His writing reflects a growing concern for child welfare and education. In this period, his work increasingly focuses on federal, state and city governments, and how the public sector impacts all basic social issues. His work was sufficiently transcendent of political ideology that seven presidents sought and received his advice and participation.

After receiving all due encomiums and congratulations for intellectual work and policy research well done, Ginzberg then went on to spend the next thirty years of his life carving out a place as a preeminent economist of health, welfare services, and hospital administration. It is this portion of his life that is the subject of Eli Ginzberg: The Economist as a Public Intellectual. What is apparent in Ginzberg's work of this period is his sense of the growing interaction of all the social sciences-pure and applied-to develop a sense of the whole. The contributors to this festschrift, join together to provide a portrait of a figure whose life and work have spanned the twentieth century, and yet pointed the way to changes in the twenty-first century. Eli Ginzberg from the start possessed a strong sense of social justice and economic equality grounded in a Judaic-Christian tradition. All of these aspects come together in the writings of a person who transcends all parochialism and gives substantive content to the often-cloudy phrase, public intellectual.

Previous attempts to reduce the effects of television advertising on children's purchase requests have had little success. Therefore, we tested the effects of a classroom intervention to reduce television, videotape, and video game use on children's toy purchase requests, in a school-based randomized controlled trial. Third- and fourth-grade children (mean age, 8.9 years) in two sociodemographically and scholastically matched public elementary schools were eligible to participate. Children in one randomly selected elementary school received an 18-lesson, 6-month classroom curriculum to reduce television, videotape, and video game use. In both schools, in September (before intervention) and April (after intervention) of a single school year, children and parents reported children's prior week's purchase requests for toys seen on television. After intervention, children in the intervention school were significantly less likely to report toy purchase requests than children in the control school, with adjusting for baseline purchase requests, gender, and age (odds ratio, 0.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.69). Among intervention school children, reductions in self-reported purchase requests were also associated with reductions in television viewing. There was no significant difference between schools in parent reports of children's requests for toy purchases. These findings suggest that reducing television viewing is a promising approach to reducing the influences of advertising on children's behavior.