In spite of advances made in our understanding of the biology of the hepatitis C virus (HCV), the epidemiology and natural history of HCV infection, and the treatment of chronic hepatitis C, the development and worldwide implementation of a comprehensive prevention and control strategy remains necessary. A World Health Organization informal consultation with the Viral Hepatitis Prevention Board was convened and met in Geneva, Switzerland, 13-14 May 2002, to review epidemiological and public health aspects of HCV infection, and the various prevention and control strategies that are currently in place. Based on the presentations and discussions, a number of specific recommendations were made, which should be considered in conjunction with previously published recommendations.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is an important human pathogen in virtually every part of the world. Here we investigate whether distinct strains of M. tuberculosis infect different human populations and whether associations between host and pathogen populations are stable despite global traffic and the convergence of diverse strains of the pathogen in cosmopolitan urban centers. The recent global movement and transmission history of 100 M. tuberculosis isolates was inferred from a molecular epidemiologic study of tuberculosis that spans 12 years. Genetic relationships among these isolates were deduced from the distribution of large genomic deletions, which were identified by DNA microarray and confirmed by PCR and sequence analysis. Phylogenetic analysis of these deletions indicates that they are unique event polymorphisms and that horizontal gene transfer is extremely rare in M. tuberculosis. In conjunction with the epidemiological data, phylogenies reveal three large phylogeographic regions. A host's region of origin is predictive of the strain of tuberculosis he or she carries, and this association remains strong even when transmission takes place in a cosmopolitan urban center outside of the region of origin. Approximate dating of the time since divergence of East Asian and Philippine clades of M. tuberculosis suggests that these lineages diverged centuries ago. Thus, associations between host and pathogen populations appear to be highly stable.

OBJECTIVE: Although an increasing fraction of Medicare beneficiaries die outside the hospital, the proportion of total Medicare expenditures attributable to care in the last year of life has not dropped. We sought to determine whether disproportionate increases in hospital treatment intensity over time among decedents are responsible for the persistent growth in end-of-life expenditures.

DATA SOURCE: The 1985-1999 Medicare Medical Provider Analysis and Review (MedPAR) and Denominator files.

STUDY DESIGN: We sampled inpatient claims for 20 percent of all elderly fee-for-service Medicare decedents and 5 percent of all survivors between 1985 and 1999 and calculated age-, race-, and gender-adjusted per-capita inpatient expenditures and rates of intensive care unit (ICU) and intensive procedure use. We used the decedent-to-survivor expenditure ratio to determine whether growth rates among decedents outpaced growth relative to survivors, using the growth rate among survivors to control for secular trends in treatment intensity. Data Collection. The data were collected by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Real inpatient expenditures for the Medicare fee-for-service population increased by 60 percent, from $58 billion in 1985 to $90 billion in 1999, one-quarter of which were accrued by decedents. Between 1985 and 1999 the proportion of beneficiaries with one or more intensive care unit (ICU) admission increased from 30.5 percent to 35.0 percent among decedents and from 5.0 percent to 7.1 percent among survivors; those undergoing one or more intensive procedure increased from 20.9 percent to 31.0 percent among decedents and from 5.8 percent to 8.5 percent among survivors. The majority of intensive procedures in the United States were performed in the more numerous survivors, although in 1999 50 percent of feeding tube placements, 60 percent of intubations/tracheostomies, and 75 percent of cardiopulmonary resuscitations were in decedents. The proportion of beneficiaries dying in a hospital decreased from 44.4 percent to 39.3 percent, but the likelihood of being admitted to an ICU or undergoing an intensive procedure during the terminal hospitalization increased from 38.0 percent to 39.8 percent and from 17.8 percent to 30.3 percent, respectively. One in five Medicare beneficiaries who died in the hospital in 1999 received mechanical ventilation during their terminal admission.

CONCLUSIONS: Inpatient treatment intensity for all fee-for-service beneficiaries increased between 1985 and 1999 regardless of survivorship status. Absolute changes in per-capita hospital expenditures, ICU admissions, and intensive inpatient procedure use were much higher among decedents. Relative changes were similar except for ICU admissions, which grew faster among survivors. The secular decline in in-hospital deaths has not resulted in decreased per capita utilization of expensive inpatient services in the last year of life. This could imply that net hospital expenditures for the dying might have been even higher over this time period if the shift toward hospice had not occurred.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening patients with a B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) blood test to identify those with depressed left ventricular systolic function. BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic patients with depressed ejection fraction (EF) may have less progression to heart failure if they can be identified and treated. METHODS: We used a decision model to estimate economic and health outcomes for different screening strategies using BNP and echocardiography to detect left ventricular EF 40% for men and women age 60 years. We used published data from community cohorts (gender-specific BNP test characteristics, prevalence of depressed EF) and randomized trials (benefit from treatment). RESULTS: Screening 1,000 asymptomatic patients with BNP followed by echocardiography in those with an abnormal test increased the lifetime cost of care (176,000 US dollars for men, 101,000 US dollars for women) and improved outcome (7.9 quality-adjusted life years [QALYs] for men, 1.3 QALYs for women), resulting in a cost per QALY of 22,300 US dollars for men and 77,700 US dollars for women. For populations with a prevalence of depressed EF of at least 1%, screening with BNP followed by echocardiography increased outcome at a cost 50,000 US dollars per QALY gained. Screening would not be attractive if a diagnosis of left ventricular dysfunction led to significant decreases in quality of life or income. CONCLUSIONS: Screening populations with a 1% prevalence of reduced EF (men at age 60 years) with BNP followed by echocardiography should provide a health benefit at a cost that is comparable to or less than other accepted health interventions.

Toward a 21st Century Health System is a collection of essays that explore a key element of the health care delivery system -- large multispecialty physician group practices. Edited by policy experts Alain Enthoven and Laura Tollen, and written by a panel of health policy scholars and leaders including Stephen Shortell, Hal Luft, Donald Berwick, James Robinson, and Helen Darling, this resource addresses a variety of topics, including:

• organized delivery systems
• quality of care in prepaid group practice versus other types of managed care
• the role of physician leadership and culture in group practice
• prepaid group practice and the formation of national health policy

The book also covers such topics as pharmacy benefit management, technology assessment, health services research, and employer purchasing of benefits, all as they relate to prepaid group practice.

OBJECTIVES: This study seeks to further characterize the role of exercise testing in the elderly for prognosis and diagnosis of coronary artery disease. BACKGROUND: Recent exercise testing guidelines have recognized that statements regarding the elderly do not have an adequate evidence-based quality because the studies they are based on have limitations in sample size and design. The Duke Treadmill Score has been recommended for risk stratification, but recent evidence has suggested that it does not function in the elderly.

METHODS: The study population consisted of male veterans (1872 patients >or=65 years; 3798 patients <65 years) who underwent routine clinical exercise testing with a mean follow-up of six years. A subset who underwent coronary angiography as clinically indicated (elderly, n = 405; younger, n= 809) were included. The primary outcome for all subjects was cardiovascular mortality with coronary angiographic findings as the outcome in those selected for angiography.

RESULTS: In survival analysis, exercise-induced ST depression was prognostic in both age groups only when cardiovascular death was considered as the end point. Peak metabolic equivalents were the most significant predictor for both age groups only when all-cause death was considered as the end point. New age-specific prognostic scores were developed and found to be predictive for cardiovascular mortality in the elderly. Moreover, in the angiographic subset of the elderly, a specific diagnostic score provided significantly better discrimination than exercise ST measurements alone. For any new score, there is a need for validation in another elderly population.

CONCLUSIONS: The mortality end point affected the choice of prognostic variables. This study demonstrates that exercise test scores can be helpful for the diagnosis and prognosis of coronary disease in the elderly.

OBJECTIVE: To discuss and quantify the incentives that Medicare managed care plans have to avoid (through selective enrollment or disenrollment) people who are at risk for very high costs, focusing on Medicare beneficiaries in the last year of life-a group that accounts for more than one-quarter of Medicare's annual expenditures.

DATA SOURCE: Medicare administrative claims for 1994 and 1995.

STUDY DESIGN: We calculated the payment a plan would have received under three risk-adjustment systems for each beneficiary in our 1995 sample based on his or her age, gender, county of residence, original reason for Medicare entitlement, and principal inpatient diagnoses received during any hospital stays in 1994. We compared these amounts to the actual costs incurred by those beneficiaries. We then looked for clinical categories that were predictive of costs, including costs in a beneficiary's last year of life, not accounted for by the risk adjusters.

DATA EXTRACTION METHODS: The analyses were conducted using claims for a 5 percent random sample of Medicare beneficiaries who died in 1995 and a matched group of survivors.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Medicare is currently implementing the Principal Inpatient Diagnostic Cost Groups (PIP-DCG) risk adjustment payment system to address the problem of risk selection in the Medicare+Choice program. We quantify the strong financial disincentives to enroll terminally ill beneficiaries that plans still have under this risk adjustment system. We also show that up to one-third of the selection observed between Medicare HMOs and the traditional fee-for-service system could be due to differential enrollment of decedents. A risk adjustment system that incorporated more of the available diagnostic information would attenuate this disincentive; however, plans could still use clinical information (not included in the risk adjustment scheme) to identify beneficiaries whose expected costs exceed expected payments.

CONCLUSIONS: More disaggregated prospective risk adjustment methods and alternative payment systems that compensate plans for delivering care to certain classes of patients should be considered to ensure access to high-quality managed care for all beneficiaries.

Using data from a survey of deaths of children less than 5 years old conducted in 1997 in a county in Shaanxi Province, China, this paper examines gender differences in child survival in contemporary rural China. First, excess female child mortality in the county in 1994-96 is described, followed by an analysis of the mechanisms whereby the excess mortality takes place, and the underlying social, economic and cultural factors behind it. Excess female child mortality in this county is probably caused primarily by discrimination against girls in curative health care rather than in preventive health care or food and nutrition. Although discrimination occurs in all kinds of families and communities, discrimination itself is highly selective, and is primarily against girls with some specific characteristics. It is argued that the excess mortality of girls is caused fundamentally by the strong son preference in traditional Chinese culture, but exacerbated by the government-guided family planning programme and regulations. This suggests that it is crucial to raise the status of girls within the family and community so as to mitigate the pressures to discriminate against girls in China's low fertility regime. Finally, the possible policy options to improve female child survival in contemporary rural China are discussed.

This issue of CHP/PCOR's quarterly newsletter covers news and developments at the centers for the fall quarter 2003.

The issue features articles about a handful of health policy talks sponsored by the centers in the fall quarter; a novel "interactive textbook" on clinical symptom research; the recent arrival from China of the second fellow for CHP/PCOR's China-U.S. Health and Aging Research Training Program; a roundup of the 25th annual conference of the Society for Medical Decision Making; and a summary of last quarter's media coverage highlighting the centers' research work.