Context: The aging of the baby boom generation, the extension of life, and progressive increases in disability-free life expectancy have generated a dramatic demographic transition in the United States. Official government forecasts may, however, have inadvertently underestimated life expectancy, which would have major policy implications, since small differences in forecasts of life expectancy produce very large differences in the number of people surviving to an older age. This article presents a new set of population and life expectancy forecasts for the United States, focusing on transitions that will take place by midcentury.

Methods: Forecasts were made with a cohort-components methodology, based on the premise that the risk of death will be influenced in the coming decades by accelerated advances in biomedical technology that either delay the onset and age progression of major fatal diseases or that slow the aging process itself.

Findings: Results indicate that the current forecasts of the U.S. Social Security Administration and U.S. Census Bureau may underestimate the rise in life expectancy at birth for men and women combined, by 2050, from 3.1 to 7.9 years.

Conclusions: The cumulative outlays for Medicare and Social Security could be higher by $3.2 to $8.3 trillion relative to current government forecasts. This article discusses the implications of these results regarding the benefits and costs of an aging society and the prospect that health disparities could attenuate some of these changes.

As academic fields and professions go, health services research is relatively young. Whether one dates the beginning of this field to the first National Institutes of Health study section on health services research in 1960, the passage of Medicare and Medicaid in 1965 and the accompanying drive to develop the conceptual and analytic tools to manage them, or the founding of this journal by the Health Research and Educational Trust with a grant from the U.S. Public Health Service in 1966, its history is much shorter than that of many other disciplines. The field gained its own professional organization only as recently as 1981 with the establishment of the Association of Health Services Research (now called AcademyHealth).

This study examined whether externally rated job demand and control were associated with depression diagnosis claims in a heavy industrial cohort. The retrospective cohort sample consisted of 7,566 hourly workers aged 18-64 years who were actively employed at 11 US plants between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2003, and free of depression diagnosis claims during an initial 2-year run-in period. Logistic regression analysis was used to model the effect of tertiles of demand and control exposure on depression diagnosis claims. Demand had a significant positive association with depression diagnosis claims in bivariate models and models adjusted for demographic (age, gender, race, education, job grade, tenure) and lifestyle (smoking status, body mass index, cholesterol level) variables (high demand odds ratio = 1.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.86). Control was associated with greater risk of depression diagnosis at moderate levels in unadjusted models only (odds ratio = 1.47, 95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.93), while low control, contrary to expectation, was not associated with depression. The effects of the externally rated demand exposure were lost with adjustment for location. This may reflect differences in measurement or classification of exposure, differences in depression diagnosis by location, or other location-specific factors.

Sociologists and others studying aging in the U.S. uncover myths that dominate public perceptions of the elderly. Educating our society about the facts on aging is a necessary step to ensure that future policies will promote a more equitable and productive America for all ages.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether functional status before dialysis is maintained after the initiation of this therapy in elderly patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). METHODS: Using a national registry of patients undergoing dialysis, which was linked to a national registry of nursing home residents, we identified all 3702 nursing home residents in the United States who were starting treatment with dialysis between June 1998 and October 2000 and for whom at least one measurement of functional status was available before the initiation of dialysis. Functional status was measured by assessing the degree of dependence in seven activities of daily living (on the Minimum Data Set-Activities of Daily Living [MDS-ADL] scale of 0 to 28 points, with higher scores indicating greater functional difficulty). RESULTS: The median MDS-ADL score increased from 12 during the 3 months before the initiation of dialysis to 16 during the 3 months after the initiation of dialysis. Three months after the initiation of dialysis, functional status had been maintained in 39% of nursing home residents, but by 12 months after the initiation of dialysis, 58% had died and predialysis functional status had been maintained in only 13%. In a random-effects model, the initiation of dialysis was associated with a sharp decline in functional status, indicated by an increase of 2.8 points in the MDS-ADL score (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5 to 3.0); this decline was independent of age, sex, race, and functional-status trajectory before the initiation of dialysis. The decline in functional status associated with the initiation of dialysis remained substantial (1.7 points; 95% CI, 1.4 to 2.1), even after adjustment for the presence or absence of an accelerated functional decline during the 3-month period before the initiation of dialysis. CONCLUSIONS: Among nursing home residents with ESRD, the initiation of dialysis is associated with a substantial and sustained decline in functional status. 2009 Massachusetts Medical Society

BACKGROUND: Safety climate refers to shared perceptions of what an organization is like with regard to safety, whereas safety culture refers to employees' fundamental ideology and orientation and explains why safety is pursued in the manner exhibited within a particular organization. Although research has sought to identify opportunities for improving safety outcomes by studying patterns of variation in safety climate, few empirical studies have examined the impact of organizational characteristics such as culture on hospital safety climate.

PURPOSE: This study explored how aspects of general organizational culture relate to hospital patient safety climate.

METHODOLOGY: In a stratified sample of 92 U.S. hospitals, we sampled 100% of senior managers and physicians and 10% of other hospital workers. The Patient Safety Climate in Healthcare Organizations and the Zammuto and Krakower organizational culture surveys measured safety climate and group, entrepreneurial, hierarchical, and production orientation of hospitals' culture, respectively. We administered safety climate surveys to 18,361 personnel and organizational culture surveys to a 5,894 random subsample between March 2004 and May 2005. Secondary data came from the 2004 American Hospital Association Annual Hospital Survey and Dun & Bradstreet. Hierarchical linear regressions assessed relationships between organizational culture and safety climate measures.

FINDINGS: Aspects of general organizational culture were strongly related to safety climate. A higher level of group culture correlated with a higher level of safety climate, but more hierarchical culture was associated with lower safety climate. Aspects of organizational culture accounted for more than threefold improvement in measures of model fit compared with models with controls alone. A mix of culture types, emphasizing group culture, seemed optimal for safety climate.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: Safety climate and organizational culture are positively related. Results support strategies that promote group orientation and reduced hierarchy, including use of multidisciplinary team training, continuous quality improvement tools, and human resource practices and policies.

Context: Fetuin-A inhibits the insulin receptor in vitro. Higher serum fetuin-A concentrations are associated with type 2 diabetes longitudinally and greater adiposity in cross-sectional analyses. Whether higher fetuin-A concentrations are associated with accumulation of adiposity over time is unknown.

Objective: To determine the association of fetuin-A levels with changes in body composition over 5 yr.

Study Design: Observational cohort study nested in the Health Aging and Body Composition Study.

Predictor: Serum fetuin-A levels.

Outcomes: Visceral adipose tissue (VAT), abdominal sc adipose tissue, and thigh muscle area by computed tomography, and waist circumference and body mass index were measured at baseline and again after 5 yr. Percent change and extreme change (>1.5 SDs) in each measure were calculated.

Results: Over 5 yr, subjects lost body mass in each measure, including 6% decline in VAT. Yet each SD (0.42 g/liter) higher fetuin-A concentration was associated with a 5.5% increase in VAT over 5 yr (95% confidence interval 1.9-9.2%; P = 0.003) in models adjusted for age, sex, race, clinical site, diabetes, physical activity, triglycerides, kidney function, and the baseline VAT score. Similarly, higher fetuin-A concentrations were associated with extreme VAT gain (relative risk 1.70, 95% confidence interval 1.12-2.60, P = 0.01). Fetuin-A concentrations were not statistically significant associated with change in any other measures of body composition (P > 0.20).

Conclusions: Higher fetuin-A concentrations are associated with the accumulation of VAT in well-functioning, community-living older persons. The mechanisms linking fetuin-A, VAT, and insulin resistance remain to be determined.

Background and objectives. Rates of dialysis withdrawal are higher among the elderly and lower among Blacks, yet it is unknown whether preferences for withdrawal and engagement in advance care planning also vary by age and race or ethnicity.

Design, setting, participants and methods. We recruited 61 participants from two dialysis clinics to complete questionnaires regarding dialysis withdrawal preferences in five different health states. Engagement in advance care planning (end-of-life discussions), completion of advance directives and ‘do not resuscitate' or ‘do not intubate' (DNR/DNI) orders were ascertained by a questionnaire and from dialysis unit records.

Results. The mean age was 62 ± 15 years; 38% were Black, 11% were Latino, 34% were White and 16% of participants were Asian. Blacks were less likely to prefer dialysis withdrawal as compared with Whites (odds ratio 0.16, 95% confidence interval 0.03-0.88) and other race/ethnicity groups, and this difference was not explained by age, education, comorbidity and other confounders. In contrast, older age was not associated with preferences for withdrawal. Rates of engagement in end-of-life discussions were higher than for documentation of advance care planning for all age and most race/ethnicity groups. Although younger participants and minorities were generally less likely to document treatment preferences as compared with older patients and Whites, they were not less likely to engage in end-of-life discussions.

Conclusions. Preferences for withdrawal vary by race/ ethnicity, whereas the pattern of engagement in advance care planning varies by age and race/ethnicity. Knowledge of these differences may be useful for improving communication about end-of-life preferences and in implementing effective advance care planning strategies among diverse haemodialysis patients.