Circumcision significantly reduces female-to-male transmission of HIV infection, but changes in behavior may influence the overall impact on transmission. We sought to explore these effects, particularly for societies where women have less power to negotiate safe sex. We developed a compartmental epidemic model to simulate the population-level impact of various circumcision programs on heterosexual HIV transmission in Soweto. We incorporated gender-specific negotiation of condom use in sexual partnerships and explored post-circumcision changes in condom use. A 5-year prevention program in which only an additional 10% of uncircumcised males undergo circumcision each year, for example, would prevent 13% of the expected new HIV infections over 20 years. Outcomes were sensitive to potential changes in behavior and differed by gender. For Southern Africa, even modest programs offering circumcision would result in significant benefits. Because decreases in male condom use could diminish these benefits, particularly for women, circumcision programs should emphasize risk-reduction counseling.

Background: Compared with women aged 50-69 years, the lower sensitivity of mammographic screening in women aged 40-49 years is largely attributed to the lower mammographic tumor detectability and faster tumor growth in the younger women.

Methods: We used a Monte Carlo simulation model of breast cancer screening by age to estimate the median tumor size detectable on a mammogram and the mean tumor volume doubling time. The estimates were calculated by calibrating the predicted breast cancer incidence rates to the actual rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and the predicted distributions of screen-detected tumor sizes to the actual distributions obtained from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC). The calibrated parameters were used to estimate the relative impact of lower mammographic tumor detectability vs faster tumor volume doubling time on the poorer screening outcomes in younger women compared with older women. Mammography screening outcomes included sensitivity, mean tumor size at detection, lifetime gained, and breast cancer mortality. In addition, the relationship between screening sensitivity and breast cancer mortality was investigated as a function of tumor volume doubling time, mammographic tumor detectability, and screening interval.

Results: Lowered mammographic tumor detectability accounted for 79% and faster tumor volume doubling time accounted for 21% of the poorer sensitivity of mammography screening in younger women compared with older women. The relative contributions were similar when the impact of screening was evaluated in terms of mean tumor size at detection, lifetime gained, and breast cancer mortality. Screening sensitivity and breast cancer mortality reduction attributable to screening were almost linearly related when comparing annual or biennial screening with no screening. However, when comparing annual with biennial screening, the greatest reduction in breast cancer mortality attributable to screening did not correspond to the greatest gain in screening sensitivity and was more strongly affected by the mammographic tumor detectability than tumor volume doubling time.

Conclusion: The age-specific differences in mammographic tumor detection contribute more than age-specific differences in tumor growth rates to the lowered performance of mammography screening in younger women.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) after acute kidney injury (AKI) is an area of great importance to patients. It was hypothesized that HRQOL after AKI would relate to intensity of dialysis during AKI and dialysis dependence at follow-up.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: The Veterans Affairs/National Institutes of Health Acute Renal Failure Trial Network Study was a multicenter, prospective, randomized trial of intensive versus less intensive renal replacement therapy in critically ill patients with AKI. Of 1124 participants, 415 survived at least 60 days and completed the Health Utilities Index (HUI), which measures 8 health attributes and calculates an overall HRQOL score, also called a utility score. How strongly pre-intensive care unit (ICU) health, severity of illness, hospital course, intensity of dialysis, and outcome were associated with 60-day HUI scores was assessed, after adjustment for demographics.

RESULTS: The overall HUI score was 0.40 +/- 0.37, indicating severely compromised health utility and was associated with only admission from home and hospital and ICU length of stay (LOS). Ambulation was better among those with a shorter hospital and ICU LOS. Better cognition was associated with dialysis independence and with fewer comorbid chronic illnesses. Emotion was associated with only hospital LOS. Pain was associated with ICU LOS.

CONCLUSIONS: Health utility was low in this cohort of patients after AKI, and intensity of dialysis did not affect subsequent health utility. The effects of a lengthy hospitalization generally outweighed the effects of delayed recovery of kidney function on HRQOL after AKI.

Prior studies suggest patient self-testing (PST) of prothrombin time (PT) can improve the quality of anticoagulation (AC) and reduce complications (e.g., bleeding and thromboembolic events). "The Home INR Study" (THINRS) compared AC management with frequent PST using a home monitoring device to high-quality AC management (HQACM) with clinic-based monitoring on major health outcomes. A key clinical and policy question is whether and which patients can successfully use such devices. We report the results of Part 1 of THINRS in which patients and caregivers were evaluated for their ability to perform PST. Study-eligible patients (n = 3643) were trained to use the home monitoring device and evaluated after 2-4 weeks for PST competency. Information about demographics, medical history, warfarin use, medications, plus measures of numeracy, literacy, cognition, dexterity, and satisfaction with AC were collected. Approximately 80% (2931 of 3643) of patients trained on PST demonstrated competency; of these, 8% (238) required caregiver assistance. Testers who were not competent to perform PST had higher numbers of practice attempts, higher cuvette wastage, and were less able to perform a fingerstick or obtain blood for the cuvette in a timely fashion. Factors associated with failure to pass PST training included increased age, previous stroke history, poor cognition, and poor manual dexterity. A majority of patients were able to perform PST. Successful home monitoring of PT with a PST device required adequate levels of cognition and manual dexterity. Training a caregiver modestly increased the proportion of patients who can perform PST.

Objectives To determine the relation between the HIV/AIDS epidemic and support for dependent elderly people in Africa.
Design Retrospective analysis using data from Demographic and Health Surveys.

Setting 22 African countries between 1991 and 2006.

Participants 123 176 individuals over the age of 60.

Main outcome measures We investigated how three measures of the living arrangements of older people have been affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic: the number of older individuals living alone (that is, the number of unattended elderly people); the number of older individuals living with only dependent children under the age of 10 (that is, in missing generation households); and the number of adults age 18-59 (that is, prime age adults) per household where an older person lives.

Results An increase in annual AIDS mortality of one death per 1000 people was associated with a 1.5% increase in the proportion of older individuals living alone (95% CI 1.2% to 1.9%) and a 0.4% increase in the number of older individuals living in missing generation households (95% CI 0.3% to 0.6%). Increases in AIDS mortality were also associated with fewer prime age adults in households with at least one older person and at least one prime age adult (P<0.001). These findings suggest that in our study countries, which encompass 70% of the sub-Saharan population, the HIV/AIDS epidemic could be responsible for 582 200-917 000 older individuals living alone without prime age adults and 141 000-323 100 older individuals being the sole caregivers for young children.

Conclusions Africa's HIV/AIDS epidemic might be responsible for a large number of older people losing their support and having to care for young children. This population has previously been under-recognised. Efforts to reduce HIV/AIDS deaths could have large "spillover" benefits for elderly people in Africa.

Objectives: Emergency departments (EDs) are increasingly proposed as high-yield venues for providing preventive health education to a population at risk for unhealthy behaviors and unmet primary care needs. This study sought to determine the preferred health education topics and teaching modality among ED patients and visitors.

Methods: For two 24-hour periods, patients aged 18 years and older presenting to four Boston EDs were consecutively enrolled, and waiting room visitors were surveyed every 3 hours. The survey assessed interest in 28 health conditions and topics, which were further classified into nine composite health education categories. Also assessed was the participants' preferred teaching modality.

Results: Among 1,321 eligible subjects, 1,010 (76%) completed the survey, of whom 56% were patients and 44% were visitors. Among the health conditions, respondents were most interested in learning about stress and depression (32%). Among the health topics, respondents were most interested in exercise and nutrition (43%). With regard to learning modality, 34% of subjects chose brochures/book, 25% video, 24% speaking with an expert, 14% using a computer, and 3% another mode of learning (e.g., a class). Speaking with an expert was the overall preferred modality for those with less than high school education and Hispanics, as well as those interested in HIV screening, youth violence, and stroke. Video was the preferred modality for those interested in learning more about depression, alcohol, drugs, firearm safety, and smoke detectors.

Conclusions: Emergency department patients and visitors were most interested in health education on stress, depression, exercise, and nutrition, compared to topics more commonly targeted to the ED population such as substance abuse, sexual health (including HIV testing), and injury prevention. Despite many recent innovations in health education, most ED patients and visitors in our study preferred the traditional form of books and brochures. Future ED health education efforts may be optimized by taking into account the learning preferences of the target ED population.

We examined military-related sexual trauma among deployed Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom veterans. Of 125 729 veterans who received Veterans Health Administration primary care or mental health services, 15.1% of the women and 0.7% of the men reported military sexual trauma when screened. Military sexual trauma was associated with increased odds of a mental disorder diagnosis, including posttraumatic stress disorder, other anxiety disorders, depression, and substance use disorders. Sexual trauma is an important postdeployment mental health issue in this population.

There has been considerable debate in the last decade about whether or not family planning programmes in developing countries reduce fertility or improve socio-economic outcomes. This article provides new evidence by studying the expansion of one of the world's oldest and largest family planning organisations - Profamilia of Colombia. It finds that family planning explains less than 10% of Colombia's fertility decline during its demographic transition. As in wealthy countries, however, lowering the costs of first birth postponement produced important socio-economic gains, enabling young women to obtain more education and to work more and live independently later in life.

Health care expenditures in the United States have been increasing much more rapidly than the rest of the economy over the past 30 years. The average gap, 2.8% per annum, results in health care's share of the economy doubling every 26 years.1 Why does this matter? Would it matter if expenditures for personal computers were increasing 2.8% per annum more rapidly than the rest of the economy? The appropriate response would be, "So what?" Concern about health care expenditures is often attributed to the large role of these expenditures in the federal budget and the effect on the deficit.2 But that is not the whole story. A dollar spent on health care is not a priori more fiscally toxic than a dollar spent on transportation or education or any other item in the government budget. Moreover, health expenditures in the private sector have also been increasing.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) and other chronic diseases are caused by a complex combination of many genetic and environmental factors. Few methods are available to comprehensively associate specific physical environmental factors with disease. We conducted a pilot Environmental-Wide Association Study (EWAS), in which epidemiological data are comprehensively and systematically interpreted in a manner analogous to a Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS).

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed multiple cross-sectional analyses associating 266 unique environmental factors with clinical status for T2D defined by fasting blood sugar (FBG) concentration > or =126 mg/dL. We utilized available Centers for Disease Control (CDC) National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cohorts from years 1999 to 2006. Within cohort sample numbers ranged from 503 to 3,318. Logistic regression models were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), ethnicity, and an estimate of socioeconomic status (SES). As in GWAS, multiple comparisons were controlled and significant findings were validated with other cohorts. We discovered significant associations for the pesticide-derivative heptachlor epoxide (adjusted OR in three combined cohorts of 1.7 for a 1 SD change in exposure amount; p<0.001), and the vitamin gamma-tocopherol (adjusted OR 1.5; p<0.001). Higher concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) such as PCB170 (adjusted OR 2.2; p<0.001) were also found. Protective factors associated with T2D included beta-carotenes (adjusted OR 0.6; p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Despite difficulty in ascertaining causality, the potential for novel factors of large effect associated with T2D justify the use of EWAS to create hypotheses regarding the broad contribution of the environment to disease. Even in this study based on prior collected epidemiological measures, environmental factors can be found with effect sizes comparable to the best loci yet found by GWAS.