Circumcision significantly reduces female-to-male transmission of HIV infection, but changes in behavior may influence the overall impact on transmission. We sought to explore these effects, particularly for societies where women have less power to negotiate safe sex. We developed a compartmental epidemic model to simulate the population-level impact of various circumcision programs on heterosexual HIV transmission in Soweto. We incorporated gender-specific negotiation of condom use in sexual partnerships and explored post-circumcision changes in condom use. A 5-year prevention program in which only an additional 10% of uncircumcised males undergo circumcision each year, for example, would prevent 13% of the expected new HIV infections over 20 years. Outcomes were sensitive to potential changes in behavior and differed by gender. For Southern Africa, even modest programs offering circumcision would result in significant benefits. Because decreases in male condom use could diminish these benefits, particularly for women, circumcision programs should emphasize risk-reduction counseling.

BACKGROUND: Universal testing and treatment holds promise for reducing the burden of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in sub-Saharan Africa, but linkage from testing to treatment sites and retention in care are inadequate.

METHODS: We developed a simulation of the HIV epidemic and HIV disease progression in South Africa to compare the outcomes of the present HIV treatment campaign (status quo) with 4 HIV testing and treating strategies that increase access to antiretroviral therapy: (1) universal testing and treatment without changes in linkage to care and loss to follow-up; (2) universal testing and treatment with improved linkage to care; (3) universal testing and treatment with reduced loss to follow-up; and (4) comprehensive HIV care with universal testing and treatment, improved linkage to care, and reduced loss to follow-up. The main outcome measures were survival benefits, new HIV infections, and HIV prevalence. 

RESULTS: Compared with the status quo strategy, universal testing and treatment (1) was associated with a mean (95% uncertainty bounds) life expectancy gain of 12.0 months (11.3-12.2 months), and 35.3% (32.7%-37.5%) fewer HIV infections over a 10-year time horizon. Improved linkage to care (2), prevention of loss to follow-up (3), and comprehensive HIV care (4) provided substantial additional benefits: life expectancy gains compared with the status quo strategy were 16.1, 18.6, and 22.2 months, and new infections were 55.5%, 51.4%, and 73.2% lower, respectively. In sensitivity analysis, comprehensive HIV care reduced new infections by 69.7% to 76.7% under a broad set of assumptions.

CONCLUSIONS: Universal testing and treatment with current levels of linkage to care and loss to follow-up could substantially reduce the HIV death toll and new HIV infections. However, increasing linkage to care and preventing loss to follow-up provides nearly twice the benefits of universal testing and treatment alone.

The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, co-chaired by former Clinton White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles and former Republican Senate Whip Alan
Simpson, faces two over-riding problems. First, it must find a new source of revenue for the federal government, a source that is relatively stable, produces substantial proceeds, and does not create large disincentives for employment, saving, and investment. Second, it must bring the rate of growth of health care spending closer to the rate of growth of the rest of the economy. The gap over the last 30 years, 2.8 percent per annum, is unsustainable. As Alice Rivlin, a member of the new commission, has said, “Long-run fiscal policy is health policy.” Control of health expenditures will require comprehensive change in the way the country finances and delivers health care. A value-added tax (VAT) dedicated to funding basic health care for all through enrollment in accountable care organizations would help solve the revenue and health spending problems at the same time.

Objectives To determine the relation between the HIV/AIDS epidemic and support for dependent elderly people in Africa.
Design Retrospective analysis using data from Demographic and Health Surveys.

Setting 22 African countries between 1991 and 2006.

Participants 123 176 individuals over the age of 60.

Main outcome measures We investigated how three measures of the living arrangements of older people have been affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic: the number of older individuals living alone (that is, the number of unattended elderly people); the number of older individuals living with only dependent children under the age of 10 (that is, in missing generation households); and the number of adults age 18-59 (that is, prime age adults) per household where an older person lives.

Results An increase in annual AIDS mortality of one death per 1000 people was associated with a 1.5% increase in the proportion of older individuals living alone (95% CI 1.2% to 1.9%) and a 0.4% increase in the number of older individuals living in missing generation households (95% CI 0.3% to 0.6%). Increases in AIDS mortality were also associated with fewer prime age adults in households with at least one older person and at least one prime age adult (P<0.001). These findings suggest that in our study countries, which encompass 70% of the sub-Saharan population, the HIV/AIDS epidemic could be responsible for 582 200-917 000 older individuals living alone without prime age adults and 141 000-323 100 older individuals being the sole caregivers for young children.

Conclusions Africa's HIV/AIDS epidemic might be responsible for a large number of older people losing their support and having to care for young children. This population has previously been under-recognised. Efforts to reduce HIV/AIDS deaths could have large "spillover" benefits for elderly people in Africa.

Objectives: Emergency departments (EDs) are increasingly proposed as high-yield venues for providing preventive health education to a population at risk for unhealthy behaviors and unmet primary care needs. This study sought to determine the preferred health education topics and teaching modality among ED patients and visitors.

Methods: For two 24-hour periods, patients aged 18 years and older presenting to four Boston EDs were consecutively enrolled, and waiting room visitors were surveyed every 3 hours. The survey assessed interest in 28 health conditions and topics, which were further classified into nine composite health education categories. Also assessed was the participants' preferred teaching modality.

Results: Among 1,321 eligible subjects, 1,010 (76%) completed the survey, of whom 56% were patients and 44% were visitors. Among the health conditions, respondents were most interested in learning about stress and depression (32%). Among the health topics, respondents were most interested in exercise and nutrition (43%). With regard to learning modality, 34% of subjects chose brochures/book, 25% video, 24% speaking with an expert, 14% using a computer, and 3% another mode of learning (e.g., a class). Speaking with an expert was the overall preferred modality for those with less than high school education and Hispanics, as well as those interested in HIV screening, youth violence, and stroke. Video was the preferred modality for those interested in learning more about depression, alcohol, drugs, firearm safety, and smoke detectors.

Conclusions: Emergency department patients and visitors were most interested in health education on stress, depression, exercise, and nutrition, compared to topics more commonly targeted to the ED population such as substance abuse, sexual health (including HIV testing), and injury prevention. Despite many recent innovations in health education, most ED patients and visitors in our study preferred the traditional form of books and brochures. Future ED health education efforts may be optimized by taking into account the learning preferences of the target ED population.

Background: Many patients with hypertension have legitimate reasons to forego standard blood pressure targets yet are nonetheless included in performance measurement systems. An approach to performance measurement incorporating clinical reasoning was developed to determine which patients to include in a performance measure.

Design: A 10-member multispecialty advisory panel refined a taxonomy of situations in which the balance of benefits and harms of anti-hypertensive treatment does not clearly favor tight blood pressure control (< 140/90 mm Hg).

Findings: The panel identified several broad categories of reasons for exempting a patient from performance measurement for blood pressure control. These included

1. patients who have suffered adverse effects from multiple classes of antihypertensive medications;
   
2. patients already taking four or more antihypertensive medications;
   
3. patients with terminal disease, moderate to severe dementia, or other conditions that overwhelmingly dominate the patient's clinical status; and
   
4. other patient factors, including comfort care orientation and poor medication adherence despite attempts to remedy adherence difficulties.

Several general principles also emerged. Performance measurement should focus on patients for whom the benefits of treatment clearly outweigh the harms and should incorporate a longitudinal approach. In addition, the criteria for exempting a patient from performance measurement should be more strict in patients at higher risk of adverse health outcomes from hypertension and more lenient for patients at lower risk.

Conclusions: Incorporating "real world" clinical principles and judgment into performance measurement systems may improve targeting of care and, by accounting for patient case mix, allow for better comparison of performance between institutions.

BACKGROUND: The CDC recommends routine voluntary HIV testing of all patients 13-64 years of age. Despite this recommendation, HIV testing rates are low even among those at identifiable risk, and many patients do not return to receive their results. OBJECTIVE: To examine the costs and benefits of strategies to improve HIV testing and receipt of results. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis based on a Markov model. Acceptance of testing, return rates, and related costs were derived from a randomized trial of 251 patients; long-term costs and health outcomes were derived from the literature. SETTING/TARGET POPULATION: Primary-care patients with unknown HIV status. INTERVENTIONS: Comparison of three intervention models for HIV counseling and testing: Model A = traditional HIV counseling and testing; Model B = nurse-initiated routine screening with traditional HIV testing and counseling; Model C = nurse-initiated routine screening with rapid HIV testing and streamlined counseling. MAIN MEASURES: Life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness. KEY RESULTS: Without consideration of the benefit from reduced HIV transmission, Model A resulted in per-patient lifetime discounted costs of $48,650 and benefits of 16.271 QALYs. Model B increased lifetime costs by $53 and benefits by 0.0013 QALYs (corresponding to 0.48 quality-adjusted life days). Model C cost $66 more than Model A with an increase of 0.0018 QALYs (0.66 quality-adjusted life days) and an incremental cost-effectiveness of $36,390/QALY. When we included the benefit from reduced HIV transmission, Model C cost $10,660/QALY relative to Model A. The cost-effectiveness of Model C was robust in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In a primary-care population, nurse-initiated routine screening with rapid HIV testing and streamlined counseling increased rates of testing and receipt of test results and was cost-effective compared with traditional HIV testing strategies.

Background: Sodium consumption raises blood pressure, increasing the risk for heart attack and stroke. Several countries, including the United States, are considering strategies to decrease population sodium intake.

Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of 2 population strategies to reduce sodium intake: government collaboration with food manufacturers to voluntarily cut sodium in processed foods, modeled on the United Kingdom experience, and a sodium tax.

Design: A Markov model was constructed with 4 health states: well, acute myocardial infarction (MI), acute stroke, and history of MI or stroke.

Data Sources: Medical Panel Expenditure Survey (2006), Framingham Heart Study (1980 to 2003), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension trial, and other published data.

Target Population: U.S. adults aged 40 to 85 years.

Time Horizon: Lifetime.

Perspective: Societal.

Outcome Measures: Incremental costs (2008 U.S. dollars), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and MIs and strokes averted.

Results of Base-case Analysis: Collaboration with industry that decreases mean population sodium intake by 9.5% averts 513 885 strokes and 480 358 MIs over the lifetime of adults aged 40 to 85 years who are alive today compared with the status quo, increasing QALYs by 2.1 million and saving $32.1 billion in medical costs. A tax on sodium that decreases population sodium intake by 6% increases QALYs by 1.3 million and saves $22.4 billion over the same period.

Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Results are sensitive to the assumption that consumers have no disutility with modest reductions in sodium intake.

Limitation: Efforts to reduce population sodium intake could result in other dietary changes that are difficult to predict.

Conclusion: Strategies to reduce sodium intake on a population level in the United States are likely to substantially reduce stroke and MI incidence, which would save billions of dollars in medical expenses.

Primary Funding Source: Department of Veterans Affairs, Stanford University, and the National Science Foundation.