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To address growing concerns over childhood obesity, the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recently recommended that children undergo obesity screening beginning at age 6. An Expert Committee recommends starting at age 2. Analysis is needed to assess these recommendations and investigate whether there are better alternatives. We model the age- and sex-specific population-wide distribution of BMI through age 18 using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) data. The impact of treatment on BMI is estimated using the targeted systematic review performed to aid the USPSTF. The prevalence of hypertension and diabetes at age 40 are estimated from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). We fix the screening interval at 2 years, and derive the age- and sex-dependent BMI thresholds that minimize adult disease prevalence, subject to referring a specified percentage of children for treatment yearly. We compare this optimal biennial policy to biennial versions of the USPSTF and Expert Committee recommendations. Compared to the USPSTF recommendation, the optimal policy reduces adult disease prevalence by 3% in relative terms (the absolute reductions are <1%) at the same treatment referral rate, or achieves the same disease prevalence at a 28% reduction in treatment referral rate. If compared to the Expert Committee recommendation, the reductions change to 6 and 40%, respectively. The optimal policy treats mostly 16-year olds and few children under age 14. Our results suggest that adult disease is minimized by focusing childhood obesity screening and treatment on older adolescents.

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Obesity
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Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
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As incomes rise around the world, health experts expect a more troubling figure to increase as well: the number of diabetics in developing countries.

In China and India – two of the world’s most populous nations with fast-paced economies – the prevalence of diabetes is expected to double by 2025. Between 15 and 20 percent of their adult population will develop the disease as household budgets increase, diets change to include more calories and new health problems emerge.

But China, India and other developing countries are not fully prepared to deal with the rising trend of diabetes. And a growing number of diabetics aren’t getting the care they need to prevent serious complications, Stanford researchers say.

Even with insurance, many diabetics don’t have essential medications that could help them manage their conditions. In many cases, people are spending a great deal of their household incomes to pay for their treatment, said Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert, an assistant professor of medicine who led the research team.

“Public and private health insurance programs aren’t providing sufficient protection for diabetics in many developing countries,” said Goldhaber-Fiebert, a faculty member at Stanford Health Policy at the university’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. “People with insurance aren’t doing markedly better than those who don’t have it. Health insurance and health systems need to be re-oriented to better address chronic diseases like diabetes.”

Findings from the study are online and will be published in the Jan. 24 edition of Diabetes Care, the journal of the American Diabetes Association. The journal article was co-authored by Jay Bhattacharya, an associate professor of medicine and Stanford Health Policy faculty member; and Crystal Smith-Spangler, an instructor at Stanford’s Department of Medicine and an investigator at the Palo Alto VA Health Care System.

Failure to adequately manage diabetes will lead to more severe health problems like blindness, heart disease and kidney failure. It also harms the otherwise healthy, Goldhaber-Fiebert said.

Diabetes often strikes people at an age when they’re taking care of children and elderly parents. To sideline these primary caretakers as dependants will lead to a heavy burden for communities and create an obstacle for economic growth, he added.

Using responses to a global survey conducted by the World Health Organization in 2002 and 2003, Goldhaber-Fiebert and his colleagues examined data from 35 low- and middle-income countries in Asia, Latin America, Africa and Eastern Europe to determine whether diabetics with insurance were more likely to have medication than those without insurance.

They also wanted to know whether insured diabetics have a lower risk of “catastrophic medical spending,” a term the researchers define as spending more than 25 percent of a household income on medical care.

“Surprisingly, diabetics with insurance were no more likely to have the medications they need than uninsured diabetics,” Goldhaber-Fiebert said. “They were also no less likely to suffer catastrophic medical spending.”

There are many reasons why health insurance may not protect diabetics in developing countries against high out-of-pocket spending. In some cases, there’s a lack of sufficient medication – such as insulin – that regulate glucose levels. Without those drugs, there’s a greater risk of complications that often lead to more hospitalizations and more expenses.

In other cases, co-payments and deductibles are too high. Sometimes, drugs and medical services to prevent diabetes complications are not covered. And doctors and hospitals don’t always accept insurance.

“Better policies are needed to provide sufficient protection and care for diabetics in the developing world,” Goldhaber-Fiebert said.

Without medications to manage diabetes and prevent secondary complications, the condition will worsen and the burden of catastrophic spending will increase, he said.

“It’s important to get ahead of the curve and prepare so there’s an infrastructure in place to deal with these health and cost issues,” he said.

While preventing diabetes in the first place would be ideal, programs and policies must be established to care for the many cases that will surely continue to exist.

“There isn’t a single country that’s managed to entirely arrest or reverse the trend of diabetes,” he said. “Programs that focus on primary prevention are extremely important, but the reality is that the developing world faces hundreds of millions of diabetes cases that are unlikely to all be prevented.”

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What kind of a health care system do China’s 1.3 billion turn to when ill, injured, or in need of care? This article provides a brief overview of how China’s health system has transformed alongside China’s society and economy since the Mao era, including how the current system is financed, organized, regulated, and being reformed. It first provides a brief description of the Mao-era health system and China’s demographic and epidemiologic transitions. Then it gives an overview of China’s contemporary health care system, including the dramatic expansion of health insurance over the last eight years and the progress of national health system reforms initiated in 2009.

A condensed and revised version of this paper is published in The Milken Institute Review 2012 second quarter: 16-27. 

Published: Eggleston, Karen. "Health care for 1.3 billion: An overview of China’s health system." (2012).

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Asia Health Policy Program working paper # 28
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Karen Eggleston
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Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Injection drug use (IDU) and heterosexual virus transmission both contribute to the growing mixed HIV epidemics in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In Ukraine-chosen in this study as a representative country-IDU-related risk behaviors cause half of new infections, but few injection drug users (IDUs) receive methadone substitution therapy. Only 10% of eligible individuals receive antiretroviral therapy (ART). The appropriate resource allocation between these programs has not been studied. We estimated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of strategies for expanding methadone substitution therapy programs and ART in mixed HIV epidemics, using Ukraine as a case study.

METHODS AND FINDINGS:

We developed a dynamic compartmental model of the HIV epidemic in a population of non-IDUs, IDUs using opiates, and IDUs on methadone substitution therapy, stratified by HIV status, and populated it with data from the Ukraine. We considered interventions expanding methadone substitution therapy, increasing access to ART, or both. We measured health care costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), HIV prevalence, infections averted, and incremental cost-effectiveness. Without incremental interventions, HIV prevalence reached 67.2% (IDUs) and 0.88% (non-IDUs) after 20 years. Offering methadone substitution therapy to 25% of IDUs reduced prevalence most effectively (to 53.1% IDUs, 0.80% non-IDUs), and was most cost-effective, averting 4,700 infections and adding 76,000 QALYs compared with no intervention at US$530/QALY gained. Expanding both ART (80% coverage of those eligible for ART according to WHO criteria) and methadone substitution therapy (25% coverage) was the next most cost-effective strategy, adding 105,000 QALYs at US$1,120/QALY gained versus the methadone substitution therapy-only strategy and averting 8,300 infections versus no intervention. Expanding only ART (80% coverage) added 38,000 QALYs at US$2,240/QALY gained versus the methadone substitution therapy-only strategy, and averted 4,080 infections versus no intervention. Offering ART to 80% of non-IDUs eligible for treatment by WHO criteria, but only 10% of IDUs, averted only 1,800 infections versus no intervention and was not cost effective.

CONCLUSIONS:

Methadone substitution therapy is a highly cost-effective option for the growing mixed HIV epidemic in Ukraine. A strategy that expands both methadone substitution therapy and ART to high levels is the most effective intervention, and is very cost effective by WHO criteria. When expanding ART, access to methadone substitution therapy provides additional benefit in infections averted. Our findings are potentially relevant to other settings with mixed HIV epidemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

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PLoS Medicine
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Douglas K. Owens
Margaret L. Brandeau
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When making decisions, individuals must often compensate for cognitive limitations, particularly in the face of advanced age. Recent findings suggest that age-related variability in striatal activity may increase financial risk-taking mistakes in older adults. In two studies, we sought to further characterize neural contributions to optimal financial risk taking and to determine whether decision aids could improve financial risk taking. In Study 1, neuroimaging analyses revealed that individuals whose mesolimbic activation correlated with the expected value estimates of a rational actor made more optimal financial decisions. In Study 2, presentation of expected value information improved decision making in both younger and older adults, but the addition of a distracting secondary task had little impact on decision quality. Remarkably, provision of expected value information improved the performance of older adults to match that of younger adults at baseline. These findings are consistent with the notion that mesolimbic circuits play a critical role in optimal choice, and imply that providing simplified information about expected value may improve financial risk taking across the adult life span.

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Soc Cogn Affect Neurosci
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Many models of infectious disease ignore the underlying contact structure through which the disease spreads. However, in order to evaluate the efficacy of certain disease control interventions, it may be important to include this network structure. We present a network modeling framework of the spread of disease and a methodology for inferring important model parameters, such as those governing network structure and network dynamics, from readily available data sources. This is a general and flexible framework with wide applicability to modeling the spread of disease through sexual or close contact networks. To illustrate, we apply this modeling framework to evaluate HIV control programs in sub-Saharan Africa, including programs aimed at concurrent partnership reduction, reductions in risky sexual behavior, and scale up of HIV treatment.

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Health Care Management Science
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Margaret L. Brandeau
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In an era of limited healthcare budgets, mathematical models can be useful tools to identify cost-effective programs and to support policymakers in informed decision making. This paper reports results of our work carried out over several years with the Asian Liver Center at Stanford University, a nonprofit outreach and advocacy organization that is an international leader in the fight against hepatitis B and liver cancer. Hepatitis B is a vaccine-preventable viral disease that, if untreated, can lead to death from cirrhosis and liver cancer. Infection with hepatitis B is a major public health problem, particularly in Asian populations. We used new combinations of decision analysis and Markov models to analyze the cost-effectiveness of several interventions to combat hepatitis B in the United States and China. The results of our OR-based analyses have helped change United States public health policy on hepatitis B screening for millions of people and have helped encourage policymakers in China to enact legislation to provide free catch-up vaccination for hundreds of millions of children. These policies are an important step in eliminating health disparities, reducing discrimination, and ensuring that millions of people who need it can now receive hepatitis B vaccination or lifesaving treatment.

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Interfaces (Providence)
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Margaret L. Brandeau
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We estimated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of changes in concurrent sexual partnerships in reducing the spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. Using data from Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia, we estimated country-specific concurrency behaviour from sexual behaviour survey data on the number of partners in the past 12 months, and we developed a network model to compare the impact of three behaviour changes on the HIV epidemic: (1) changes in concurrent partnership patterns to strict monogamy; (2) partnership reduction among those with the greatest number of partners; and (3) partnership reduction among all individuals. We estimated the number of new HIV infections over 10 years and the cost per infection averted. Given our assumptions and model structure, we find that reducing concurrency among high-risk individuals averts the most infections and increasing monogamy the least (11.7% versus 8.7% reduction in new infections, on average, for a 10% reduction in concurrent partnerships). A campaign that costs US$1 per person annually is likely cost-saving if it reduces concurrency by 9% on average, given our baseline estimates of concurrency. In sensitivity analysis, the rank ordering of behaviour change scenarios was unaffected by potential over-estimation of concurrency, though the number of infections averted decreased and the cost per HIV infection averted increased. Concurrency reduction programmes may be effective and cost-effective in reducing HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa if they can achieve even modest impacts at similar costs to past mass media campaigns in the region. Reduced concurrency among high-risk individuals appears to be most effective in reducing HIV incidence, but concurrency reduction in other risk groups may yield nearly as much benefit.

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International Journal of STD & AIDS
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Margaret L. Brandeau
Eran Bendavid
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Abstract

BACKGROUND:

To determine which of 3 interventions was most effective in improving blood pressure (BP) control, we performed a 4-arm randomized trial with 18-month follow-up at the primary care clinics at a Veterans Affairs Medical Center.

METHODS:

Eligible patients were randomized to either usual care or 1 of 3 telephone-based intervention groups: (1) nurse-administered behavioral management, (2) nurse- and physician-administered medication management, or (3) a combination of both. Of the 1551 eligible patients, 593 individuals were randomized; 48% were African American. The intervention telephone calls were triggered based on home BP values transmitted via telemonitoring devices. Behavioral management involved promotion of health behaviors. Medication management involved adjustment of medications by a study physician and nurse based on hypertension treatment guidelines.

RESULTS:

The primary outcome was change in BP control measured at 6-month intervals over 18 months. Both the behavioral management and medication management alone showed significant improvements at 12 months-12.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6%-24.1%) and 12.5% (95% CI, 1.3%-23.6%), respectively-but not at 18 months. In subgroup analyses, among those with poor baseline BP control, systolic BP decreased in the combined intervention group by 14.8 mm Hg (95% CI, -21.8 to -7.8 mm Hg) at 12 months and 8.0 mm Hg (95% CI, -15.5 to -0.5 mm Hg) at 18 months, relative to usual care.

CONCLUSIONS:

Overall intervention effects were moderate, but among individuals with poor BP control at baseline, the effects were larger. This study indicates the importance of identifying individuals most likely to benefit from potentially resource intensive programs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION:

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00237692.

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Archives of Internal Medicine
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Mary K. Goldstein
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Clinical practice guidelines aim to help providers make decisions that optimize patient care (1). Both developers and users of guidelines understand that guidelines could be improved by tailoring the recommendations to the specific circumstances of an individual patient. Tailored guideline recommendations may improve health outcomes when a group of patients can be divided into subgroups in which the tailored recommendations would increase benefits, reduce harms, or save costs relative to more generic recommendations. For example, a guideline for hypertension may recommend antihypertensive treatment in patients whose blood pressure is higher than 140/90 mm Hg. However, patients with diabetes or high cardiovascular risk may benefit from receiving treatment at lower blood pressures, whereas other patients may benefit from less aggressive treatment.

However, for both guideline developers and clinicians, tailoring recommendations is easier said than done. Developers of guidelines face a difficult tradeoff: Issue simplified, easy-to-follow guidelines or, instead, guidelines targeted more precisely to each patient, at the cost of greater complexity and more challenging implementation. In addition, little evidence may exist to guide how to tailor recommendations, because trials may exclude patients who have the comorbid conditions and other factors that would warrant tailoring a recommendation.

Clinicians also may have far more information about an individual patient than even complex guidelines can accommodate. Should a patient with atrial fibrillation receive guideline-concordant anticoagulation therapy even if he or she is at increased risk for falls? Such …

This 100-word excerpt has been provided in the absence of an abstract.

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Annals of Internal Medicine
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Douglas K. Owens
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