Comparative effectiveness research
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Comparative effectiveness research (CER) has the potential to slow health care spending growth by focusing resources on health interventions that provide the most value. In this article, we discuss issues surrounding CER and its implementation and apply these methods to a salient clinical example: treatment of prostate cancer. Physicians have several options for treating patients recently diagnosed with localized disease, including removal of the prostate (radical prostatectomy), treatment with radioactive seeds (brachytherapy), radiation therapy (IMRT), or-if none of these are pursued- active surveillance. Using a commercial health insurance claims database and after adjustment for comorbid conditions, we estimate that the additional cost of treatment with radical prostatectomy is $7,300, while other alternatives are more expensive-$19,000 for brachytherapy and $46,900 for IMRT. However, a review of the clinical literature uncovers no evidence that justifi es the use of these more expensive approaches. These results imply that if patient management strategies were shifted to those supported by CER-based criteria, an estimated $1.7 to $3.0 billion (2009 present value) could be saved each year.

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Demography
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Liver disease and liver cancer associated with childhood-acquired chronic hepatitis B are
leading causes of death among adults in China. Despite expanded newborn hepatitis B
vaccination programs, approximately 20% of children under age 5 years and 40% of children aged 5 to 19 years remain unprotected from hepatitis B. Although immunizing them will be beneficial, no studies have examined the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis B catch-up vaccination in an endemic country like China. We examined the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical nationwide free hepatitis B catch-up vaccination program in China for unvaccinated children and adolescents aged 1 to 19 years. We used a Markov model for disease progression and infections. Cost variables were based on data published by the Chinese Ministry of Health, peer-reviewed Chinese and English publications, and the GAVI Alliance.


We measured costs (2008 U.S. dollars and Chinese renminbi), quality-adjusted life years,and incremental cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective. Our results show that hepatitis B catch-up vaccination for children and adolescents in China is cost-saving across a range of parameters, even for adolescents aged 15 to 19 years old. We estimate that if all 150 million susceptible children under 19 were vaccinated, more than 8 million infections and 65,000 deaths due to hepatitis B would be prevented. Conclusion: The adoption of a nationwide free catch-up hepatitis B vaccination program for unvaccinated children and adolescents in China, in addition to ongoing efforts to improve birth dose and newborn vaccination coverage, will be cost-saving and can generate significant population-wide health benefits. The success of such a program in China could serve as a model for other endemic countries.

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Hepatology
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Margaret L. Brandeau
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Background: Although recent guidelines call for expanded routine screening for HIV, resources for antiretroviral therapy (ART) are limited, and all eligible persons are not currently receiving treatment.

Objective: To evaluate the effects on the U.S. HIV epidemic of expanded ART, HIV screening, or interventions to reduce risk behavior.

Design: Dynamic mathematical model of HIV transmission and disease progression and cost-effectiveness analysis.

Data Sources: Published literature.

Target Population: High-risk (injection drug users and men who have sex with men) and low-risk persons aged 15 to 64 years in the United States.

Time Horizon: Twenty years and lifetime (costs and quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]).

Perspective: Societal.

Intervention: Expanded HIV screening and counseling, treatment with ART, or both.

Outcome Measures: New HIV infections, discounted costs and QALYs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

Results of Base-Case Analysis: One-time HIV screening of low-risk persons coupled with annual screening of high-risk persons could prevent 6.7% of a projected 1.23 million new infections and cost $22 382 per QALY gained, assuming a 20% reduction in sexual activity after screening. Expanding ART utilization to 75% of eligible persons prevents 10.3% of infections and costs $20 300 per QALY gained. A combination strategy prevents 17.3% of infections and costs $21 580 per QALY gained.

Results of Sensitivity Analysis: With no reduction in sexual activity, expanded screening prevents 3.7% of infections. Earlier ART initiation when a CD4 count is greater than 0.350 × 109 cells/L prevents 20% to 28% of infections. Additional efforts to halve high-risk behavior could reduce infections by 65%.

Limitation: The model of disease progression and treatment was simplified, and acute HIV screening was excluded.

Conclusion: Expanding HIV screening and treatment simultaneously offers the greatest health benefit and is cost-effective. However, even substantial expansion of HIV screening and treatment programs is not sufficient to markedly reduce the U.S. HIV epidemic without substantial reductions in risk behavior.

Primary Funding Source: National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health, and Department of Veterans Affairs.

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Annals of Internal Medicine
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Margaret L. Brandeau
Douglas K. Owens
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Background— Family members of patients with established long-QT syndrome (LQTS) often lack definitive clinical findings, yet may have inherited an LQTS mutation and be at risk of sudden death. Genetic testing can identify mutations in 75% of patients with LQTS, but genetic testing of family members remains controversial.

Methods and Results— We used a Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of 3 strategies for treating an asymptomatic 10-year-old, first-degree relative of a patient with clinically evident LQTS. In the genetic testing strategy, relatives undergo genetic testing only for the mutation identified in the index patient, and relatives who test positive for the mutation are treated with β-blockers. This strategy was compared with (1) empirical treatment of relatives with β-blockers and (2) watchful waiting, with treatment only after development of symptoms. The genetic testing strategy resulted in better survival and quality-adjusted life years at higher cost, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of $67 400 per quality-adjusted life year gained compared with watchful waiting. The cost-effectiveness of the genetic testing strategy improved to less than $50 000 per quality-adjusted life year gained when applied selectively either to (1) relatives with higher clinical suspicion of LQTS (pretest probability 65% to 81%), or to (2) families with a higher than average risk of sudden death, or to (3) larger families (2 or more first-degree relatives tested).

Conclusions— Genetic testing of young first-degree relatives of patients with definite LQTS is moderately expensive, but can reach acceptable thresholds of cost-effectiveness when applied to selected patients.

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Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes
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Douglas K. Owens
Mark A. Hlatky
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Background: Warfarin reduces the risk for ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) but increases the risk for hemorrhage. Dabigatran is a fixed-dose, oral direct thrombin inhibitor with similar or reduced rates of ischemic stroke and intracranial hemorrhage in patients with AF compared with those of warfarin.

Objective: To estimate the quality-adjusted survival, costs, and cost-effectiveness of dabigatran compared with adjusted-dose warfarin for preventing ischemic stroke in patients 65 years or older with nonvalvular AF.

Design: Markov decision model.

Data Sources: The RE-LY (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy) trial and other published studies of anticoagulation. The cost of dabigatran was estimated on the basis of pricing in the United Kingdom.

Target Population: Patients 65 years or older with nonvalvular AF and risk factors for stroke (CHADS(2) score ≥1 or equivalent) and no contraindications to anticoagulation.

Time Horizon: Lifetime.

Perspective: Societal.

Intervention: Warfarin anticoagulation (target international normalized ratio, 2.0 to 3.0); dabigatran, 110 mg twice daily (low dose); and dabigatran, 150 mg twice daily (high dose).

Outcome Measures: Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs (in 2008 U.S. dollars), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

Results of Base-Case Analysis: The quality-adjusted life expectancy was 10.28 QALYs with warfarin, 10.70 QALYs with low-dose dabigatran, and 10.84 QALYs with high-dose dabigatran. Total costs were $143,193 for warfarin, $164,576 for low-dose dabigatran, and $168,398 for high-dose dabigatran. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with warfarin were $51,229 per QALY for low-dose dabigatran and $45,372 per QALY for high-dose dabigatran.

Results of Sensitivity Analysis: The model was sensitive to the cost of dabigatran but was relatively insensitive to other model inputs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio increased to $50,000 per QALY at a cost of $13.70 per day for high-dose dabigatran but remained less than $85,000 per QALY over the full range of model inputs evaluated. The cost-effectiveness of high-dose dabigatran improved with increasing risk for stroke and intracranial hemorrhage.

Limitation: Event rates were largely derived from a single randomized clinical trial and extrapolated to a 35-year time frame from clinical trials with approximately 2-year follow-up.

Conclusion: In patients 65 years or older with nonvalvular AF at increased risk for stroke (CHADS(2) score ≥1 or equivalent), dabigatran may be a cost-effective alternative to warfarin depending on pricing in the United States.

Primary Funding Source: American Heart Association and Veterans Affairs Health Services Research & Development Service.

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Annals of Internal Medicine
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Douglas K. Owens
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The major expansion of federal comparative effectiveness research launched in 2009 held the potential to supply the information needed to help slow health spending growth while improving the outcomes of care. However, when Congress passed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act one year later, it limited the role of cost analysis in the work sponsored by the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute. Despite this restriction, cost-effectiveness analysis meets important needs and is likely to play a larger role in the future. Under the terms of the Affordable Care Act, the institute can avoid commissioning cost-effectiveness analyses and still provide information bearing on the use and costs of health care interventions. This information will enable others to investigate the comparative value of these interventions. We argue that doing so is necessary to decision makers who are attempting to raise the quality of care while reining in health spending.

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Health Affairs
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BACKGROUND: -Many myocardial infarctions and strokes occur in individuals with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels below recommended treatment thresholds. High sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) testing has been advocated to identify low- and intermediate-risk individuals who may benefit from statin therapy. Methods and Results-A decision analytic Markov model was used to follow hypothetical cohorts of individuals with normal lipid levels but without coronary artery disease, peripheral arterial disease, or diabetes mellitus. The model compared current Adult Treatment Panel III practice guidelines, a strategy of hs-CRP screening in those without an indication for statin treatment by current practice guidelines followed by treatment only in those with elevated hs-CRP levels, and a strategy of statin therapy at specified predicted risk thresholds without hs-CRP testing. Risk-based treatment without hs-CRP testing was the most cost-effective strategy, assuming that statins were equally effective regardless of hs-CRP status. However, if normal hs-CRP levels identified a subgroup with little or no benefit from statin therapy (<20% relative risk reduction), then hs-CRP screening would be the optimal strategy. If harms from statin use were greater than generally recognized, then use of current clinical guidelines would be the optimal strategy. Conclusion-Risk-based statin treatment without hs-CRP testing is more cost-effective than hs-CRP screening, assuming that statins have good long-term safety and provide benefits among low-risk people with normal hs-CRP.

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Circulation
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Douglas K. Owens
Mark A. Hlatky
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With the awareness of maternal depression as a prevalent public health issue and its important link to child physical and mental health, attention has turned to how healthcare providers can respond effectively. Intimate partner violence (IPV) and the use of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs are strongly related to depression, particularly for low-income women. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) recommends psychosocial screening of pregnant women at least once per trimester, yet screening is uncommonly done. Research suggests that a collaborative care approach improves identification, outcomes, and cost-effectiveness of care. This article presents The Perinatal Mental Health Model, a community-based model that developed screening and referral partnerships for use in community obstetric settings in order to specifically address the psychosocial needs of culturally diverse, low-income mothers.

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Journal of Women's Health
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BACKGROUND: Universal testing and treatment holds promise for reducing the burden of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in sub-Saharan Africa, but linkage from testing to treatment sites and retention in care are inadequate.

METHODS: We developed a simulation of the HIV epidemic and HIV disease progression in South Africa to compare the outcomes of the present HIV treatment campaign (status quo) with 4 HIV testing and treating strategies that increase access to antiretroviral therapy: (1) universal testing and treatment without changes in linkage to care and loss to follow-up; (2) universal testing and treatment with improved linkage to care; (3) universal testing and treatment with reduced loss to follow-up; and (4) comprehensive HIV care with universal testing and treatment, improved linkage to care, and reduced loss to follow-up. The main outcome measures were survival benefits, new HIV infections, and HIV prevalence. 

RESULTS: Compared with the status quo strategy, universal testing and treatment (1) was associated with a mean (95% uncertainty bounds) life expectancy gain of 12.0 months (11.3-12.2 months), and 35.3% (32.7%-37.5%) fewer HIV infections over a 10-year time horizon. Improved linkage to care (2), prevention of loss to follow-up (3), and comprehensive HIV care (4) provided substantial additional benefits: life expectancy gains compared with the status quo strategy were 16.1, 18.6, and 22.2 months, and new infections were 55.5%, 51.4%, and 73.2% lower, respectively. In sensitivity analysis, comprehensive HIV care reduced new infections by 69.7% to 76.7% under a broad set of assumptions.

CONCLUSIONS: Universal testing and treatment with current levels of linkage to care and loss to follow-up could substantially reduce the HIV death toll and new HIV infections. However, increasing linkage to care and preventing loss to follow-up provides nearly twice the benefits of universal testing and treatment alone.

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Archives of Internal Medicine
Authors
Eran Bendavid
Margaret L. Brandeau
Douglas K. Owens
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