The first SHP story in the annual report is about the high-energy, highly productive Coronavirus Simulation Model.
Just weeks after the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a global pandemic in March 2020, a team of Stanford Health Policy faculty and researchers scrambled to launch a modeling framework to investigate the epidemiology of COVID-19 and to evaluate policy responses.
A year later, the Stanford-CIDE Coronavirus Simulation Model (SC-COSMO) remains at the forefront of dozens of projection models in the United States and Mexico, while helping the state of California and its prison system, hospitals, and health care providers plan for and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. As of May 2021, the SC-COSMO team’s work has resulted in a half dozen studies published in medical journals and open data sites.
“The pandemic has continued to evolve, as have the policy questions and available interventions,” says Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert, PhD, associate professor of medicine at Stanford Health Policy (SHP). “Basic questions about how quickly the virus would spread in diverse populations were followed by urgent planning for hospital capacity during the surges and then nonpharmaceutical interventions and social distancing questions.”
Goldhaber-Fiebert is one of the principal investigators of the SC-COSMO project, along with Fernando Alarid-Escudero, assistant professor at the Center for Research and Teaching in Economics in Mexico, and Jason Andrews, MD, associate professor of infectious diseases at Stanford Medicine. Other SHP faculty, among two dozen investigators on the team, are Joshua Salomon, PhD, and David Studdert, LLB, ScD, MPH, both Stanford Health Policy professors of medicine. Studdert is also a professor of law at Stanford Law School.
“We have had to consider the timing and magnitude of subsequent epidemic waves, what fraction of the population may have acquired natural immunity, and what waning immunity might mean. The team has risen to the challenge time after time,” Goldhaber-Fiebert says.