What's Ahead for Health Insurance in the United States?

The ethical case for the social insurance model will be strengthened as people realize that most health problems have at least in part a genetic basis. The efficiency case will benefit from recognition that employment-based insurance has high administrative costs but provides no advantages to society as a whole. The desire to exert more direct control over rising expenditures will provide an additional reason to introduce some form of national health insurance.

The timing of such a change, however, will depend largely on factors external to health care. Major changes in health policy are political acts undertaken for political purposes. This was true when Bismarck introduced national health insurance to the new German state in the 19th century. It was true when England adopted national health insurance after World War II; and it will be true in the United States as well. National health insurance will probably come to the United States after a major change in the political climate, the kind of change that often accompanies a war, a depression, or large scale civil unrest. Until then, the major effect of the new plans will be to make young and healthy workers better off at the expense of their older, sicker colleagues.