Health policy expert Bob Kocher likes to show a slide of the signature page of the Affordable Care Act, which he helped draft when he worked in the White House.
The mottled page shows an official time stamp of March 23, 2010, and the choppy signature of President Obama, who had to use the 22 pens he would later gift each member of Congress who helped him pass the landmark health-care law.
“We thought it would be pretty simple,” Kocher recalled with a grin. “We had 60 Democrats in the Senate and a huge majority in the House, a popular president. But then you saw what happened.”
Kocher was the keynote speaker at Health Policy through 2020: The ACA, Payment Reform and Global Challenges, a half-day symposium of speakers and panels covering some of the greatest challenges facing health care and policy here at home and abroad.
“Everything that you could imagine that would throw a monkey wrench into it, did,” said Kocher, a physician and partner at the Silicon Valley venture capital firm, Venrock, which invests in health-care and technology startups.
Six years after its rocky start — and ongoing threats to repeal the law by Republicans — Kocher still believes the ACA has had a tremendously important impact on the nation.
“Despite the single worst launch of a website in the history of the internet,” he said, 20 million more Americans now have access to health care; 13 million more are privately insured by their companies; and 7 million more are enrolled in Medicaid.
“I believe the ACA is working better than expected by virtue of the fact that there’s nobody in the ecosystem who is not behaving differently,” Kocher said.
Large employers have been forced to engage with their employees about the costs and quality of their health plans, and hospitals are adopting new technology by “liberating their data” with electronic medical records and embracing telemedicine, Kocher said.
“And for the first time, you see patients beginning to engage with new technologies and their doctors willing to entertain new models.”
Kocher, who specializes in investing in healthcare IT and services, said technology would eventually strip away some of the cost of patient care.
“One of the fun parts of my job as a venture capitalist is that I get to see a lot of these embryonic ideas and many of them have powerful ways to pull down costs without hurting quality,” he said. “We’ll have the technology and coordinated care, and data that helps guide the care, so I’m more hopeful than ever about being a patient.”
Kocher, a consulting professor at Stanford Medicine, was one of 15 speakers at the symposium to launch Stanford Health Policy, a community of faculty, physicians, scholars and students across the campus who are focused on improving health care and policy here at home and around the world.
Stanford School of Medicine Dean Lloyd B. Minor shared what he called “some surprising statistics” with the 200 people at the symposium on Oct. 14.
When looking at a pie chart representing the determinants of health, Minor said, only 5 percent are genetically based, 20 percent are based on health care and another 20 percent are due to behavioral factors.
But a full 55 percent of the determinants of health are socially and environmentally determined, Minor said, and that presents challenges for academic medical centers.
“I’m really excited in that I believe that we are beginning to come up with some ways we can address that need, as a leading academic medical center, to chart the future for how we can improve the delivery of health care in our country and then ultimately around the world,” Minor said. “For us, that vision for how we fulfill that need begins with what we describe as precision health.”
Minor said precision medicine, now embraced by the Obama administration, is about using genomics, big data science and personalization in order to individualize the treatment of acute diseases such as cancer, heart and neurological diseases.
“It’s about understanding the determinants and predisposing factors of disease in being able to more effectively intervene earlier,” he said. “And of course there’s no better place to do that than at Stanford because our academic medical center is such an integral part of this great research university.”
The ACA Moving Forward
Kocher, who often lectures in health economics and policy courses at Stanford, conceded there are serious problems with Obamacare and offered some solutions moving forward.
But the climbing cost of health care and prescription drugs in the United States — which continue to outpace the economy and job growth — is his first concern.
Health insurance on average costs a family of four is $18,000 a year.
“That’s the price of a Corolla,” he said, referring to Toyota’s compact car. “The idea that you’re effectively buying a new car every year doesn’t feel like we’re getting the right amount of cost pressure on the system that we need. So I think that’s going to be the most fundamental problem going forward.”
Despite the gnashing of teeth over what would become of the ACA under a Trump or Clinton administration, Kocher predicted few changes.
“If Hillary Clinton wins, her priorities are actually going to be totally separate from ACA tweaks,” he said, adding that she likely would first focus on K-through-12 education, work on infrastructure spending and then international affairs.
“The odds that she wants to relive 1993 seems implausible to me,” he said.
As first lady, she pushed President Bill Clinton’s universal health-care plan with a mandate for all employers to provide health insurance coverage to all employees. The Health Security Act was widely condemned by conservatives and the health insurance industry and after a rancorous year of debate and counter-proposals, it died.
And what happens to the ACA if Donald Trump is elected president on Nov. 8?
“I can’t bring myself to comment,” Kocher said, lowering his head and chuckling.
He quickly moved on to some suggestions to make health care work better and faster.
“The first thing we need is to make these adolescent exchanges grow into adults and be stable and work better,” Kocher said of the health insurance marketplaces, which have foundered in some states and thrived in others.
He said the Covered California exchange, which insures some 1.7 million Californians, is the only exchange working really well because it has large bidding regions, doesn’t let all insurance providers into the system and does great outreach to young, healthy people.
Secondly, he said, the market power of hospitals has become too strong.
“I realize there are some hospital leaders in the room and I salute you — you’ve done many things right, including getting market power,” Kocher said, addressing David Entwistle and Chris Dawes, the CEOs of Stanford Health Care and Lucile Packard Children’s Hospital, respectively, who also spoke at the symposium.
“But we need to figure out how to make the demand side of the equation more balanced with the supply side.”
He called health care today “massively inefficient” and “insanely unaffordable,” and said the average hospital stay is now $6,000 in the United States.
Kocher said he recently took his daughter to an emergency room and was charged $52 for a Tylenol. He told them he was a doctor and offered a Tylenol from his backpack.
“But I was told I couldn’t because of the safety of the hospital,” he said, shaking his head.
Kocher said hospitals must be accountable for their quality of the care and fined for failure to achieve promised quality indicators. As hospitals continue to bundle services and acquire private practices and physicians, costs have not gone down as expected.
Instead, hospital prices nationally have risen 6 to 9 percent in the last five years, faster than the rate of inflation. Perhaps, he suggested, some procedures and services should be tied to Medicare rates above a certain percentage of market share. And federally subsidized drug prices should be tied to patient income, not the facilities they use.
Kocher said there continues to be great debate over how high the penalty should be for those who decline to join a health exchange if they are uninsured by an employer.
The annual fee for not having insurance in 2016 is $695 per adult and $347.50 per child.
A higher mandate, he said, would get a lot more people into the system.
“But there’s no chance Congress is going to think about that.”
You can watch all the videos from the event here: