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Adam Gorlick
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Former President George W. Bush met with Stanford students for an hourlong conversation that touched on many of the defining moments and policies of his presidency.

In a relaxed and sometimes self-deprecating exchange on May 5, Bush talked about the limits of congressional power and his relationships and personal diplomacy with other world leaders. His tone was more serious when discussing what he described as universal desires for freedom, his military strategies following 9/11, and his commitment to addressing Africa’s HIV/AIDS pandemic.

Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, director of the university’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, moderated the session. Stanford President John Hennessy and Condoleezza Rice – Bush’s secretary of state and national security adviser who has returned to teaching political science and business at Stanford – joined the conversation.

"FSI has a terrific track record of convening leaders at Stanford, from the head of the International Monetary Fund to prime ministers and presidents,” Cuéllar said. “On this occasion, we wanted our students to have an opportunity for a candid conversation with one of the key policymakers of the early 21st century, and we think such experiences will further prepare them for leadership in a complex world."

About 30 students were invited to the session at Encina Hall, but they didn’t know they were meeting Bush until the 43rd president walked into the room.

“I suspect he misses this sort of engagement,” said Gregory Schweizer, a second-year law school student who was part of the discussion that also covered immigration reform, national education policies and the Edward Snowden affair.

“The media always portrays him as being disengaged from current affairs,” Schweizer said. “But I’m impressed with how interested and engaged he still is.”

Along with representatives from Stanford Law School, other students were invited from the Ford Dorsey Program in International Policy Studies. Honors students from FSI’s Center for International Security and Cooperation and Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law also joined the conversation.

Bush’s visit was arranged with the help of  Brad Freeman, a former university trustee and Ronald Spogli, who is currently on Stanford's board of trustees. Freeman and Spogli are longtime friends of the former president and philanthropists who donated a naming gift to FSI in 2005. Bush appointed Spogli as ambassador to Italy in 2005 and as ambassador to San Marino a year later. 

Stanford has a tradition of hosting current and former heads of state, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev – both of whom visited in 2010.

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Political and economic transition is often blamed for Russia’s 40% surge in deaths between 1990 and 1994 (the “Russian Mortality Crisis”). Highlighting that increases in mortality occurred primarily among alcohol- related causes and among working-age men (the heaviest drinkers), this paper investigates a different explanation: the demise of the 1985-1988 Gorbachev Anti-Alcohol Campaign. We use archival sources to build a new oblast-year data set spanning 1970-2000 and find that:

  • The campaign was associated with substantially fewer campaign year deaths,
  • Oblasts with larger reductions in alcohol consumption and mortality during the campaign experienced larger transition era increases, and
  • Other former Soviet states and Eastern European countries exhibit similar mortality patterns commensurate with their campaign exposure.

The campaign’s end explains between 32% and 49% of the mortality crisis, suggesting that Russia’s transition to capitalism and democracy was not as lethal as commonly suggested.

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American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
Authors
Jay Bhattacharya
Jay Bhattacharya
Christina Gathmann
Christina Gathmann
Grant Miller
Grant Miller
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Prisons of the former Soviet Union (FSU) have high rates of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and are thought to drive general population tuberculosis (TB) epidemics. Effective prison case detection, though employing more expensive technologies, may reduce long-term treatment costs and slow MDR-TB transmission.

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PLoS Medicine
Authors
DE Winetsky
DM Negoescu
EH DeMarchis
O Almukhamedova
A Dooronbekova
D Pulatov
N Vezhnina
Douglas K. Owens
Douglas Owens
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
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Background: Prisons of the former Soviet Union (FSU) have high rates of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and are thought to drive general population tuberculosis (TB) epidemics. Effective prison case detection, though employing more expensive technologies, may reduce long-term treatment costs and slow MDR-TB transmission.

Methods and Findings: We developed a dynamic transmission model of TB and drug resistance matched to the epidemiology and costs in FSU prisons. We evaluated eight strategies for TB screening and diagnosis involving, alone or in combination, self-referral, symptom screening, mass miniature radiography (MMR), and sputum PCR with probes for rifampin resistance (Xpert MTB/RIF). Over a 10-y horizon, we projected costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and TB and MDR-TB prevalence. Using sputum PCR as an annual primary screening tool among the general prison population most effectively reduced overall TB prevalence (from 2.78% to 2.31%) and MDR-TB prevalence (from 0.74% to 0.63%), and cost US$543/QALY for additional QALYs gained compared to MMR screening with sputum PCR reserved for rapid detection of MDR-TB. Adding sputum PCR to the currently used strategy of annual MMR screening was cost-saving over 10 y compared to MMR screening alone, but produced only a modest reduction in MDR-TB prevalence (from 0.74% to 0.69%) and had minimal effect on overall TB prevalence (from 2.78% to 2.74%). Strategies based on symptom screening alone were less effective and more expensive than MMR-based strategies. Study limitations included scarce primary TB time-series data in FSU prisons and uncertainties regarding screening test characteristics.

Conclusions: In prisons of the FSU, annual screening of the general inmate population with sputum PCR most effectively reduces TB and MDR-TB prevalence, doing so cost-effectively. If this approach is not feasible, the current strategy of annual MMR is both more effective and less expensive than strategies using self-referral or symptom screening alone, and the addition of sputum PCR for rapid MDR-TB detection may be cost-saving over time. 

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Journal Articles
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PLoS Medicine
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Winetsky DE
Negoescu DM
Almukhamedova O
DeMarchis E
Dooronbekova A
Pulatov D
Vezhnina N
Zhussupov B
Douglas K. Owens
Douglas K. Owens
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Authors
Adam Gorlick
News Type
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Those who live and die behind prison walls don’t usually get much public attention. Incarceration is, after all, meant to remove criminals from society. But contagious and potentially deadly diseases can’t be locked and left in a penitentiary, especially when infected inmates are eventually released.

The problem of prisoners and ex-convicts transmitting diseases to the general population is especially bad in the countries of the former Soviet Union, where rates of tuberculosis and drug-resistant strains of TB are among the world’s highest.

But Stanford researchers have identified solutions that could help curb tuberculosis in Russia, Latvia, Tajikistan and the 12 other countries in the region. Led by Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert, an assistant professor of medicine, the team has shown that a genetic TB and drug resistance screening tool called GeneXpert is more cost effective and better at reducing the spread of the disease than other methods currently recommended by the World Health Organization. Their findings were published online Nov. 27 in PLoS Medicine.

“Tuberculosis doesn’t stop at any border or any locked gate,” said Goldhaber-Fiebert, who is also a faculty member at Stanford Health Policy, a research center at the university’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

“Drug-resistant TB is rampant in prisons,” he said. “When infected prisoners get out, they are thought to drive the TB epidemic in the general population. We are looking to find better ways to deal with that.”

About 400,000 cases of TB were diagnosed last year in the 15 former Soviet Union states – 40 times the number reported in the United States. Nearly 80,000 of the sick had drug-resistant TB. According to several studies, the prevalence of TB among the region’s prisoners is 10 times greater than that of the general population.

The WHO suggests three ways to screen for TB in prisons: relying on inmates to report symptoms, actively interviewing prisoners about their health, and administering chest X-rays. The organization doesn’t recommend one method over another, and currently, prisoners in the former Soviet Union are screened annually with miniature chest X-rays.

While X-rays can show whether a lung looks healthy, they don’t always catch TB. And when they do, they cannot differentiate between a TB that can be cured with standard medications and its drug-resistant cousins that require more expensive and extensive treatments.

That’s where GeneXpert has an upper hand.

Since it was introduced in 2005, the diagnostic has been hailed as a potentially powerful tool that can help to cut TB and drug-resistance rates by more accurately diagnosing people and getting them treated. With just a small sample of mucous analyzed by a machine, the GeneXpert system can instantly detect TB and its drug-resistant genetic mutations, well suited to mass screening within the prison systems of the former Soviet Union.

But the GeneXpert test is more expensive than alternative screening methods. And while it promises to be more effective, its impact on total costs had not been quantified in the former Soviet Union region until Goldhaber-Fiebert and his colleagues began their work nearly three years ago.

By developing computer models of the former Soviet Union’s prison populations, the team predicted that using GeneXpert can cut the prevalence of TB among inmates by about 20 percent within four years – provided the screening is combined with standard regimens of drug treatment for infected patients and for those with drug-resistant TB.

“For this to make sense, you need to have the right drugs to cure those individuals you identify,” Goldhaber-Fiebert said.

The additional cost of screening with GeneXpert averages to $71 per prisoner compared to the next best alternative approach, he said.

When compared to the decreases in illness and increases in survival, and factoring the financial and societal costs of TB in the broader population, the method makes good economic sense, he said.

“There is a large, direct value to using this technology for screening in prison settings, and there are potentially substantial secondary benefits to the general population of the former Soviet Union and to the world,” Goldhaber-Fiebert said.

Douglas K. Owens, a professor of medicine who is one of the paper’s co-authors and director of Stanford Health Policy, said the findings could give governments and medical experts the evidence they need to change the way they tackle TB.

“This is the kind of work we hope will inform policymaking about TB control,” Owens said. “We’ve shown there’s a more effective approach for trying to catch TB in prisons, and that means a better chance for preventing the disease from spreading.”

Co-authors on the PLoS Medicine paper also include former Stanford medical student Daniel Winetsky and current Stanford doctoral student in Management Science and Engineering, Diana Negoescu.

The researchers collaborated with the AIDS Foundation East-West. Funding for the study came from Äids Fonds, the International Research & Exchanges Board, the Department of Veterans Affairs, the National Institutes of Health, and Stanford.

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Political and economic transition is often blamed for Russia’s 40% surge in deaths between 1990 and 1994. Highlighting that increases in mortality occurred primarily among alcohol-related causes and among working-age men (the heaviest drinkers), this paper investigates an alternative explanation: the demise of the 1985-1988 Gorbachev Anti-Alcohol Campaign. Using archival sources to build a new oblast-year data set spanning 1978-2000, we find a variety of evidence suggesting that the campaign’s end explains a large share of the mortality crisis – implying that Russia’s transition to capitalism and democracy was not as lethal as commonly suggested.

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Working Papers
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NBER
Authors
Jay Bhattacharya
Jay Bhattacharya
Christina Gathmann
Christina Gathmann
Grant Miller
Grant Miller
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Background A growing body of evidence supports the role of type 2 diabetes as an individual-level risk factor for tuberculosis (TB), though evidence from developing countries with the highest TB burdens is lacking. In developing countries, TB is most common among the poor, in whom diabetes may be less common. We assessed the relationship between individual-level risk, social determinants and population health in these settings.

Methods We performed individual-level analyses using the World Health Survey (n = 124 607; 46 countries). We estimated the relationship between TB and diabetes, adjusting for gender, age, body mass index, education, housing quality, crowding and health insurance. We also performed a longitudinal country-level analysis using data on per-capita gross domestic product and TB prevalence and incidence and diabetes prevalence for 1990–95 and 2003–04 (163 countries) to estimate the relationship between increasing diabetes prevalence and TB, identifying countries at risk for disease interactions.

Results In lower income countries, individuals with diabetes are more likely than non-diabetics to have TB [univariable odds ratio (OR): 2.39; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.84–3.10; multivariable OR: 1.81; 95% CI: 1.37–2.39]. Increases in TB prevalence and incidence over time were more likely to occur when diabetes prevalence also increased (OR: 4.7; 95% CI: 1.0–22.5; OR: 8.6; 95% CI: 1.9–40.4). Large populations, prevalent TB and projected increases in diabetes make countries like India, Peru and the Russia Federation areas of particular concern.

Conclusions Given the association between diabetes and TB and projected increases in diabetes worldwide, multi-disease health policies should be considered.

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International Journal of Epidemiology
Authors
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Christie Y Jeon
Ted Cohen
Megan B Murray
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Russia has one of the world's fastest growing HIV epidemics, and HIV screening has been widespread. Whether such screening is an effective use of resources is unclear. We used epidemiologic and economic data from Russia to develop a Markov model to estimate costs, quality of life and survival associated with a voluntary HIV screening programme compared with no screening in Russia. We measured discounted lifetime health-care costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. We varied our inputs in sensitivity analysis. Early identification of HIV through screening provided a substantial benefit to persons with HIV, increasing life expectancy by 2.1 years and 1.7 QALYs. At a base-case prevalence of 1.2%, once-per-lifetime screening cost $13,396 per QALY gained, exclusive of benefit from reduced transmission. Cost-effectiveness of screening remained favourable until prevalence dropped below 0.04%. When HIV-transmission-related costs and benefits were included, once-per-lifetime screening cost $6910 per QALY gained and screening every two years cost $27,696 per QALY gained. An important determinant of the cost-effectiveness of screening was effectiveness of counselling about risk reduction. Early identification of HIV infection through screening in Russia is effective and cost-effective in all but the lowest prevalence groups.

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International Journal of STD and AIDS
Authors
Swati Tole
Swati Tole
AM Bayoumi
Cristina Galvin
TN Vinichenko
Margaret L. Brandeau
Margaret Brandeau
Douglas K. Owens
Douglas Owens

The researchers found that the reduction of official alcohol sales had a sizeable effect on overall mortality.  The estimates imply that the decline in sales reduces the crude death rate by 1.53 or more than 10 percent.  They also found that total alcohol consumption declined by much less than official alcohol sales as people began to buy or distill illegally produced alcohol (‘samogon’).  Calculations showed that the campaign (including the substitution to samogon) saved about 80,000 lives in Russia between 1986 and 1989.  The researcher also found that price increases account for 45 perce

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This issue of CHP/PCOR's Quarterly Update covers news from the Winter 2008 quarter and includes articles about:

  • the Russian Mortality Crisis and the effect of Gorbachev’s anti-alcohol campaign on life expectancy;
  • bioterrorism supply chains – how should policymakers be planning for a bioterrorism attack?
  • a Research in Brief selection on the phenomenon and effect of Regression toward the Mean in statistical analysis on study findings;
  • the use of pedometers and use of human growth hormone in athletes, both widely-covered topics by the media, investigated by CHP/PCOR researchers.

The newsletter also contains various other news items that may be of interest to our readers.

Note to the reader:

The newsletter is fully-navigational. Any text that is surrounded by a dashed box is clickable and will allow the reader to navigate the newsletter more efficiently. The end of each article contains a special symbol (§) that, when clicked, will take the reader back to the table of contents. Please feel free to contact Amber Hsiao with any questions.

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Quarterly Update
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